It's now or never for Megawati and her PDIP
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Megawati Soekarnoputri's name and positions are at stake. She is in the precarious position of losing both her presidential seat and the leadership of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP). In a recent interview with The Jakarta Post's correspondent Indra Harsaputra, political analyst from Airlangga University Daniel Sparringa predicts that the party will fracture if Megawati fails to win the election. Below are excerpts of the interview. ----------------------------------------------------------------------
Question: What do you think about the recently completed campaign for the runoff of the presidential election?
Answer: In the dialog (held by the General Elections Commission -- KPU) the two pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates raised populist issues more than religious ones. Besides, there were major gaps between the public's political discourse and that of the candidates. The public uses simpler language generally focusing on economic recovery and job creation; public safety; and affordable education.
On the other hand, the candidates explained their visions and missions in a very complicated way. Things got even more complicated when they tried to explain their missions when responding to the questions of the panel of experts, who frequently put their ideas in academic, theoretical ... terms.
What the candidates described in their public dialogs on TV was in fact not very understandable to the public. What they should have done was convey a sense of personal connection with their supporters, instead of idealistic programs.
The dialogs organized by the Commission were arranged in such a way that the panelists only came from academic circles while the media or the public at large was not represented.
I regret the KPU's compromises with the candidates. It seemed that the panelists had originally been selected by the candidates. I was a member of the panel at the second dialog session but actually, it was the KPU, not one of the candidates, that wanted me. The dialogs were not as effective as expected.
Do you think that such dialogs are still relevant?
Yes, such dialogs can provide the public with information they need to make a (proper) choice, however ineffective they may be.
Some of my qualitative research shows that voters in Indonesia are now apparently more autonomous, independent and less prone to external influences. They vote with logical rather than ideological reasoning, meaning that they are no longer easily influenced by community figures, clerics or party decisions. Their choice is more based on candidates' personal quality.
(For example) in the first round of the presidential election (in July) a shift of votes took place in which, for instance, lots of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) members shunned the Megawati-Hasyim Muzadi and Wiranto-Solahuddin Wahid tickets.
Similarly, in the election runoff several surveys indicate that the Golkar Party members favor the Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY)-Jusuf Kalla pair despite Golkar's decision to join the Nationhood Coalition (with Megawati's PDIP, et al).
How do you see the positions of Susilo and Megawati to date?
I still see Susilo remaining above Megawati; (he) has managed to personally communicate with the public and the peoples' demand for change. Yet it does not imply Megawati's loss of any chance to garner public votes. Megawati still has the opportunity to halt Susilo's advance, by immediately announcing the names of a new Cabinet lineup which is palatable to the public.
This means ministers in the upcoming Cabinet must be high capacity figures. New faces are likely preferable. But this is also a high risk move because it is impossible to include Golkar's Akbar Tandjung and the United Development Party's (PPP) Hamzah Haz in the new Cabinet. Both are considered old faces to the public.
Won't that policy cause a further split within Golkar?
Golkar's split was indeed my prediction a long time ago and this rift will continue. Apart from Golkar, Megawati's PDIP, too, will be divided. It is because if Megawati loses, PDIP will not likely reelect her as its leader on the grounds that her name no longer "sells" well.