It's now or never for Megawati and her PDIP

It's now or never for Megawati and her PDIP

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Megawati Soekarnoputri's name and positions are at stake. She is
in the precarious position of losing both her presidential seat
and the leadership of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle
(PDIP). In a recent interview with The Jakarta Post's
correspondent Indra Harsaputra, political analyst from Airlangga
University Daniel Sparringa predicts that the party will fracture
if Megawati fails to win the election. Below are excerpts of the
interview.
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Question: What do you think about the recently completed
campaign for the runoff of the presidential election?

Answer: In the dialog (held by the General Elections
Commission -- KPU) the two pairs of presidential and vice
presidential candidates raised populist issues more than
religious ones. Besides, there were major gaps between the
public's political discourse and that of the candidates. The
public uses simpler language generally focusing on economic
recovery and job creation; public safety; and affordable
education.

On the other hand, the candidates explained their visions and
missions in a very complicated way. Things got even more
complicated when they tried to explain their missions when
responding to the questions of the panel of experts, who
frequently put their ideas in academic, theoretical ... terms.

What the candidates described in their public dialogs on TV
was in fact not very understandable to the public. What they
should have done was convey a sense of personal connection with
their supporters, instead of idealistic programs.

The dialogs organized by the Commission were arranged in such
a way that the panelists only came from academic circles while
the media or the public at large was not represented.

I regret the KPU's compromises with the candidates. It seemed
that the panelists had originally been selected by the
candidates. I was a member of the panel at the second dialog
session but actually, it was the KPU, not one of the candidates,
that wanted me. The dialogs were not as effective as expected.

Do you think that such dialogs are still relevant?

Yes, such dialogs can provide the public with information they
need to make a (proper) choice, however ineffective they may be.

Some of my qualitative research shows that voters in Indonesia
are now apparently more autonomous, independent and less prone to
external influences. They vote with logical rather than
ideological reasoning, meaning that they are no longer easily
influenced by community figures, clerics or party decisions.
Their choice is more based on candidates' personal quality.

(For example) in the first round of the presidential election
(in July) a shift of votes took place in which, for instance,
lots of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) members shunned the Megawati-Hasyim
Muzadi and Wiranto-Solahuddin Wahid tickets.

Similarly, in the election runoff several surveys indicate
that the Golkar Party members favor the Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
(SBY)-Jusuf Kalla pair despite Golkar's decision to join the
Nationhood Coalition (with Megawati's PDIP, et al).

How do you see the positions of Susilo and Megawati to date?

I still see Susilo remaining above Megawati; (he) has managed
to personally communicate with the public and the peoples' demand
for change. Yet it does not imply Megawati's loss of any chance
to garner public votes. Megawati still has the opportunity to
halt Susilo's advance, by immediately announcing the names of a
new Cabinet lineup which is palatable to the public.

This means ministers in the upcoming Cabinet must be high
capacity figures. New faces are likely preferable. But this is
also a high risk move because it is impossible to include
Golkar's Akbar Tandjung and the United Development Party's (PPP)
Hamzah Haz in the new Cabinet. Both are considered old faces to
the public.

Won't that policy cause a further split within Golkar?

Golkar's split was indeed my prediction a long time ago and
this rift will continue. Apart from Golkar, Megawati's PDIP,
too, will be divided. It is because if Megawati loses, PDIP will
not likely reelect her as its leader on the grounds that her name
no longer "sells" well.