It's decision time
Today, Monday Aug. 30, is a historic and decisive moment for the people of East Timor. For the first time ever, the people in this territory will vote, hopefully in a free, fair and peaceful fashion, to determine their own future. A democratic practice that is taken for granted in most civilized nations in other parts of the world is finally reaching this tiny nation.
This is an election that should have been carried out 24 years ago when Portugal decided to abandon its long-held colony. History would have it differently. Portugal withdrew in haste, leaving in its wake a bloody civil war. Indonesia came into the picture and has been caught in the political quagmire ever since. The election never took place, and instead the territory plunged into an endless cycle of violence.
More than 450,000 eligible voters in East Timor and elsewhere have registered for what is officially called a "popular consultation". This is an arrangement that was hammered out by Indonesia and Portugal -- both are guilty for today's state of affairs in East Timor -- and is supervised by the United Nations.
It is a ballot that requires voters only to say "yes" or "no" to an Indonesian government offer to formally join the republic as a special autonomous region. Yet for a simple ballot, it has serious and, probably, lasting consequences. A "yes" vote will mean the territory coming under Indonesia's rule with all the consequences, including abiding by the country's laws. The autonomy status is a sweetener, but the bottom line is that East Timor would join Indonesia. A "no" vote will set in motion the process of divorce with Indonesia from what is apparently a forced marriage that few countries in the world recognize.
Since this is an unprecedented vote and is without any credible survey of voter behavior, it is difficult to predict who will win the ballot today. There has never been any shortage of claims though. The proindependence camp, very vocal and with the sympathy if not support of most of the world, is confident it has the upper hand. The other camp -- called by different names such as pro-Indonesia, proautonomy, prointegration or anti- independence -- believes that the silent majority of East Timorese are behind it and will cast their votes accordingly.
It could be a close result, but then again it could be a landslide victory for either party. Predicting the outcome at this stage will be a futile exercise and it is best to let it be and find the answer as and when the votes are counted.
While the result is important, especially as far as the East Timorese people are concerned, the biggest concern for others, including Indonesia and the United Nations, is what happens after the ballot. Many are predicting a return to violence whatever the outcome and are making contingency plans accordingly. The United Nations, for example, plans to strengthen its presence in the territory, whichever way the ballot goes.
Both the proindependence and pro-Indonesia groups have pledged to abide by the result, but always with a caveat that allows them to go back on their words later on. Since both camps are still fully armed, there is no telling what the losers will do. The proindependence camp has threatened to go back to a guerrilla war if they lose the vote unfairly; the pro-Indonesia camp likewise has threatened to fight for partitioning of the already divided island.
While there is no precedent for today's election, East Timor's modern history is filled with violence, including that perpetrated by the Indonesian Military. And, in spite of the presence of UN police observers in the ballot process, tension has risen and has often erupted into violence in recent weeks.
For what it's worth, this ballot must proceed for the good of the East Timorese people. This is their election, and Portugal, Indonesia and the United Nations owe them the chance to determine their own fate once and for all, and hopefully resolve their differences in a democratic and peaceful fashion.
No outside country, not even Indonesia, should try to influence the outcome of this election, and especially the time immediately following if East Timorese reject the autonomy proposal. Any attempt at interference will simply plunge East Timor back into war. Indonesia made a mistake in 1975 and has paid a very heavy price, not only in terms of lives and money, but more importantly in terms of its dignity and international standing. Indonesia cannot afford to make that mistake again and must resist all temptation to interfere, under whatever pretext, in East Timor.