It's decision time
It's decision time
Today, Monday Aug. 30, is a historic and decisive moment for
the people of East Timor. For the first time ever, the people in
this territory will vote, hopefully in a free, fair and peaceful
fashion, to determine their own future. A democratic practice
that is taken for granted in most civilized nations in other
parts of the world is finally reaching this tiny nation.
This is an election that should have been carried out 24 years
ago when Portugal decided to abandon its long-held colony.
History would have it differently. Portugal withdrew in haste,
leaving in its wake a bloody civil war. Indonesia came into the
picture and has been caught in the political quagmire ever since.
The election never took place, and instead the territory plunged
into an endless cycle of violence.
More than 450,000 eligible voters in East Timor and elsewhere
have registered for what is officially called a "popular
consultation". This is an arrangement that was hammered out by
Indonesia and Portugal -- both are guilty for today's state of
affairs in East Timor -- and is supervised by the United Nations.
It is a ballot that requires voters only to say "yes" or "no"
to an Indonesian government offer to formally join the republic
as a special autonomous region. Yet for a simple ballot, it has
serious and, probably, lasting consequences. A "yes" vote will
mean the territory coming under Indonesia's rule with all the
consequences, including abiding by the country's laws. The
autonomy status is a sweetener, but the bottom line is that East
Timor would join Indonesia. A "no" vote will set in motion the
process of divorce with Indonesia from what is apparently a
forced marriage that few countries in the world recognize.
Since this is an unprecedented vote and is without any
credible survey of voter behavior, it is difficult to predict who
will win the ballot today. There has never been any shortage of
claims though. The proindependence camp, very vocal and with the
sympathy if not support of most of the world, is confident it has
the upper hand. The other camp -- called by different names such
as pro-Indonesia, proautonomy, prointegration or anti-
independence -- believes that the silent majority of East
Timorese are behind it and will cast their votes accordingly.
It could be a close result, but then again it could be a
landslide victory for either party. Predicting the outcome at
this stage will be a futile exercise and it is best to let it be
and find the answer as and when the votes are counted.
While the result is important, especially as far as the East
Timorese people are concerned, the biggest concern for others,
including Indonesia and the United Nations, is what happens after
the ballot. Many are predicting a return to violence whatever the
outcome and are making contingency plans accordingly. The United
Nations, for example, plans to strengthen its presence in the
territory, whichever way the ballot goes.
Both the proindependence and pro-Indonesia groups have pledged
to abide by the result, but always with a caveat that allows them
to go back on their words later on. Since both camps are still
fully armed, there is no telling what the losers will do. The
proindependence camp has threatened to go back to a guerrilla war
if they lose the vote unfairly; the pro-Indonesia camp likewise
has threatened to fight for partitioning of the already divided
island.
While there is no precedent for today's election, East Timor's
modern history is filled with violence, including that
perpetrated by the Indonesian Military. And, in spite of the
presence of UN police observers in the ballot process, tension
has risen and has often erupted into violence in recent weeks.
For what it's worth, this ballot must proceed for the good of
the East Timorese people. This is their election, and Portugal,
Indonesia and the United Nations owe them the chance to determine
their own fate once and for all, and hopefully resolve their
differences in a democratic and peaceful fashion.
No outside country, not even Indonesia, should try to
influence the outcome of this election, and especially the time
immediately following if East Timorese reject the autonomy
proposal. Any attempt at interference will simply plunge East
Timor back into war. Indonesia made a mistake in 1975 and has
paid a very heavy price, not only in terms of lives and money,
but more importantly in terms of its dignity and international
standing. Indonesia cannot afford to make that mistake again and
must resist all temptation to interfere, under whatever pretext,
in East Timor.