It is time to break Myanmar deadlock

Lee Kim Chew, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

A bearer of hope, United Nations special envoy Razali Ismail told the world after his seventh trip to Yangon last week to expect "important developments" soon.

Are Myanmar's generals at last ready to free democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest, end repression and make compromises to break the country's political deadlock?

Razali gave no clue, although his mission as a representative of UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan was to find a way out of an impasse that is now ASEAN's millstone.

For the past 18 months, secret talks between the generals and Aung San Suu Kyi have produced few results. Until the regime frees the Nobel peace laureate, who has become a symbol of resistance to all that is wrong in Myanmar, there is no prospect of a political settlement.

Last Friday, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights passed a resolution to criticize the regime's human-rights record and slow progress towards democracy.

The resolution, moved by the European Union and adopted without a vote, typifies the stigma reserved for Myanmar's junta and does ASEAN no credit.

America's lawmakers, who have banned new investments in Myanmar since 1997, are contemplating another embargo on imports if no progress is reported by the Razali mission.

This could mean blocking imports, mostly garments, worth about US$500 million (S$905 million) annually. Thousands of workers would lose their jobs.

In January, Triumph International, an European lingerie firm, closed its factory and laid off 1,000 workers because of pressure from Western labour groups and a consumer boycott.

The European Parliament is calling for tougher sanctions against Myanmar if there is no breakthrough with Aung San Suu Kyi in the next six months.

What is ASEAN, which lost much of its clout after the Asian financial crisis, doing in the face of this diplomatic onslaught on a member state?

Kobsak Chutikul, a Thai MP and former senior foreign ministry official, said there was little ASEAN could do except to suspend Myanmar's membership.

"But given ASEAN's culture, this is highly unlikely. To collectively lobby the EU and U.S. not to sanction Burma would further damage ASEAN's standing as a whole," he said.

In any case, ASEAN-EU relations have stalled over Myanmar.

An ASEAN diplomat said: "This cannot be helped. We've to engage the Europeans in other ways."

Despite its failings, Myanmar has a diplomatic shield in ASEAN because the grouping needs to stay united. The diplomat said differences with Myanmar were thrashed out in private. "It is better to engage than to confront."

Two foreign ministers who had advocated a tougher ASEAN stand towards Myanmar -- Thailand's Surin Pitsuwan and the Philippines' Domingo Siazon -- are no longer in office.

The purpose of ASEAN's expansion to include all 10 Southeast Asian states is to give it a bigger voice in world affairs. Instead, it has become defensive.

But Myanmar is not without its own friends. China gives the regime generous military and economic aid.

Beijing may be quietly worried about the regime's legitimacy, but it supports the generals as they let the Chinese have a big economic and political presence in Myanmar.

On its own, the junta had sought to balance China's growing influence by stepping up military and diplomatic exchanges with India, its other neighbor, in the past two years.

Myanmar widens its options as it breaks out of its diplomatic isolation. It is also engaging India and Thailand to promote trade and tourism. A major highway has been proposed to link the three countries.

Without much fanfare, Japan has been giving money to the cash- strapped military regime. Yangon has also found a new ally in Australia, which recently watered down a UN resolution critical of it.

Within ASEAN, Thailand's relationship with Myanmar is a bellwether. But Thai policy has zig-zagged with the change of governments in Bangkok.

Thailand under the Democrats highlighted human rights, in sharp contrast to Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's business- first approach.

Said Dr Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University: "The emphasis on democracy and human rights, previously espoused by the Chuan administration, has been abandoned in pursuit of short-term commercial gains that benefit the Thaksin government's vested interests."

Indeed, the Thai Deputy Premier, Gen. Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, banks on his personal friendship with Yangon's military leaders to settle border disputes and lift the ban on Thai fishermen in Myanmar waters.

Myanmar's generals are not totally impervious to external entreaties. Besides releasing political prisoners, they have allowed the International Committee of the Red Cross to inspect jails in Myanmar.

They also let UN Human Rights Rapporteur Paulo Pinheiro talk to political prisoners.

All this is encouraging, but not enough to raise Myanmar's diplomatic standing. The generals have to make real concessions by sharing power with Aung San Suu Kyi's party, which won the 1990 elections.

This entails a change in mindset for a junta which distrusts civilian politicians and spends 40 percent of the country's budget on the military despite a crumbling economy.

One thing is clear, though. The world is not waiting indefinitely for political change in Myanmar.

The talks with Aung San Suu Kyi cannot go on with no result, as did the constitutional talks which have become a farce in the past 12 years.