Israel's Lebanon pullout a risky move

By Megan Goldin

JERUSALEM (Reuters): An Israeli troop pullout from south Lebanon after more than two decades of occupation will in the words of Prime Minister Ehud Barak end "the tragedy" in Lebanon. Or will it?

A day after Barak's cabinet ratified his election pledge to bring the troops home by July, Israeli army chief Shaul Mofaz put words to what many in Israel are thinking:

"If we return to the international border will the fighting continue?" Mofaz asked in remarks that appeared on Monday in the Yedioth Ahronoth daily. "This is the question of all questions."

Israel's military have expressed fears that a unilateral pullback would enable Lebanese Hizbollah guerrillas, who strike daily against Israeli occupation troops, to switch to cross- border attacks targeting Israeli civilians.

Shortly after Sunday's cabinet decision, Barak indicated in a television interview that Israeli troops would leave with or without a peace deal with Syria.

With Israeli-Syrian peace talks stalled since January, the likelihood the sides could sew up a deal soon seems remote.

Moshe Maoz, an Israeli expert on Syria, said Barak's talk of a unilateral withdrawal was a tactic to show Damascus it could lose its trump card once Israeli soldiers get out of Lebanon.

"It would weaken their (Syria's) position vis a vis Israel in terms of leverage," he said.

Israeli leaders have long charged that Syria, the main powerbroker in Lebanon, gives Hizbollah a free hand as a means of pressuring Israel into concessions on peace.

"It's a kind of brinkmanship policy on both sides and a war of nerves," Maoz said. "Who is going to blink first?"

Maoz said regardless of Israeli fears that a unilateral withdrawal could boomerang, it would be hard for Barak to wriggle out of his bedrock promise to bring the boys home by July.

Domestic pressure for a pullback has mounted in line with a rise in casualties in south Lebanon. So far this year, Hizbollah has killed seven Israeli soldiers.

Itamar Rabinovich, a former chief negotiator in a previous round of talks that stalled in 1996, warned that rather than end bloodshed, a unilateral pullback could lead to all-out war.

"There would be a serious escalation on the Lebanon border. The chance of a direct Israeli-Syrian conflict will probably rise. It will be a totally new game".

Rabinovich said Iran and Syria would encourage Hizbollah to continue its guerrilla war even after Israel withdrew from the 15-km strip of Lebanese territory which it carved out in 1985 with the declared aim of protecting its north from guerrilla attacks.

He said if Israel wanted to ensure an orderly withdrawal from south Lebanon, it would have to make peace with Syria by late May in order to meet the July deadline.

U.S.-hosted peace negotiations broke off in January, after two rounds, over Israel's refusal to heed a key Syrian demand and agree in advance to withdraw from the Golan Heights which Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East War.

According to Western and Arab diplomats, Israel and Syria are conducting indirect peace talks through the United States.

Barak confirmed on Sunday the United States was trying to restart the negotiations, but he said Israel had no contacts with Syria. He said he did not know "if the talks will resume at all".

Israeli analyst Barry Rubin said a Lebanon pullback was "a great political risk" for Barak.

"If he pulls back and the border remains quiet then it will be a huge political success for Barak, but if he pulls back and there are attacks across the border by Lebanese or Palestinians then it will look very bad," he said.

Rubin said a unilateral Israeli withdrawal could drive a wedge between Lebanon and Syria.

He said he doubted Damascus was pleased with comments on Sunday from Lebanese Prime Minister Selim al-Hoss welcoming Israel's decision to pull out.

"It opens up a rift between Syria and Lebanon," Rubin said.

He said a unilateral pullback could even the playing field for Israel in its negotiations with Damascus.

"The irony is that a unilateral pullback is a defeat for Syria and a victory for Israel even though on the surface it should be the exact opposite," he said.