Ismail Hasan must placate NU: Analysts
JAKARTA (JP): The future of the United Development Party (PPP) could be jeopardized if chairman Ismail Hasan Metareum, who was reelected to the post after a bitter fight at the party's congress this week, fails to placate the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), analysts say.
They maintain that Ismail Hasan's reelection could alienate the NU, by far the largest faction in the Moslem-based party, after its bid to oust the incumbent chairman failed.
The party's future is now at stake and Ismail Hasan must mend fences with NU, said Maswadi Rauf, a staff lecturer at the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Indonesia.
Maswadi underlined that NU boasts 35 million members in Indonesia. "NU's role in the PPP cannot be taken for granted," he told The Jakarta Post.
Amir Santoso, also from the University of Indonesia, warned that NU might have been left bitter by the defeat. "Ismail Hasan needs to placate the ulemas to make sure that they don't campaign against PPP in the 1997 election."
Ismail Hasan hails from Muslimin Indonesia, which has dominated the party's leadership.
He was named head of the party's 21-strong central executive board for a second five-year term by a seven-person electoral council which he himself headed.
Two council members, Matori Abdul Djalil and Syansuri Badawi, both from NU, declined to endorse the board's selection after the other five members, all from MI, refused to accept the list of NU figures presented by the two.
The MI's council members instead selected seven NU figures to be named to the central executive board.
Maswadi said Ismail Hasan's first priority would be to approach Matori, his main rival in this week's election, because he still commands strong influence within the NU faction.
Matori lost not only the election, but also his seat on the executive board. He was previously the secretary general but had distanced himself from Ismail Hasan in the weeks preceding the congress.
"It is possible that PPP's support could decline if the chairman fails to embrace NU," Maswadi said.
He also warned Ismail Hasan not to "rid" the party of NU elements.
He warned that the NU ulemas could boycott the party in the future to protest the way their representatives were treated at the congress.
Meanwhile NU chairman Abdurrahman Wahid described the new board as "elitist and lacking grassroots support."
Abdurrahman, popularly known as Gus Dur, told reporters that the new line-up would not be able to court young voters at the next general election.
PPP has enjoyed moderate support from young voters displeased with Golkar. But in the 1997 election, these young people would turn to PDI instead of PPP, he said.
Abdurrahman said the ulemas might lose confidence in the party. "I admit that it is too early for me to make such a prediction. But I call on the voters to go to the PDI instead of shunning the election," he said.
Reconciliation was indeed one of the first things that came to Ismail Hasan's mind. Shortly after his victory Thursday night, he told reporters that he bore no grudges against Matori and the other contenders for the chairmanship.
He also promised not to remove Matori and Sri Bintang Pamungkas from the House of Representatives.
Bintang, a young PPP legislator, launched a bid from the congress's sidelines to unseat Ismail Hasan, and received the support of the young people in the process.
"I say once again that they will not be recalled. But if they trespass across the line and principles fought and accepted by the party, the case will be different," Ismail Hasan said.
He said the disaffected candidates could vent their anger at him, but not on the other leaders or the party.
Darmanto Yatman, a political observer from the Semarang-based Diponegoro University in Central Java, said that retaining the old policy was the most realistic course of action given the present situation.
He believes that the PPP needs someone like Ismail Hasan, saying that it is the only way for the party to survive at a time when controls from the authorities are still being felt.
Darmanto however questioned the exclusion of Matori and Bintang from the new executive board.
Another observer, Fachry Ali, said he was optimistic that PPP would retain its second position at the next general election.
He told Antara that the line-up of the new board has already accommodated the interests of all the factions, including the NU and the radical elements within the party.
He said the party's election chances in 1997 depend more on how well the new leadership prepares the party than on the make- up of the board.
Dean of the School of Social and Political Sciences of the University of Indonesia, M. Budyatna, said that given a chance, MI would be separated from NU.
He believed that the government was aware that it would be difficult for the two factions to stand united. "It is possible that MI will emerge as a party," he told Antara. (par)