Is there any end to India-Pakistan rivalry?

This is the first of two articles The Jakarta Post's Asia correspondent Harvey Stockwin sets out the background to the current de-escalation of Indo-Pakistan conflict in Kashmir, and describes the one moment in the last 52 years when Indo-Pakistan peace seemed to be in sight.

HONG KONG (JP): As the guns begin to fall silent in Kashmir, India calls it a withdrawal, Pakistan calls it a cease-fire.

India sees Pakistan belatedly giving in to the U.S. pressure over Kashmir. Pakistan hopes that international pressure will now, belatedly, be brought to bear on India over Kashmir.

India sees recent fighting ending in a kind of victory, while for Pakistan, recent fighting has ended in a kind of defeat.

The conclusion of the current conflict is not clear-cut and further clashes are quite possible. It is far too soon to pronounce the formal end of the fourth Indo-Pakistan War.

The only certainty is that the most recent bout of Indo- Pakistan fratricide is belatedly de-escalating. But the long overdue end to the Indo-Pakistan partition struggle, begun in 1947 and still continuing to this day, is not yet in sight.

In order to understand this gloomy assessment, it is necessary to delve into the complex background to this unending struggle on the subcontinent which has just cost over a thousand deaths, one- third Indian, two-thirds Pakistani.

First and last, it is necessary to return to the one moment in the last 52 years when the final conclusion of the protracted partition struggle seemed possible. That was in 1972, in the wake of the third Indo-Pakistan War in 1971.

Until then, there had been a West Pakistan and an East Pakistan. But a revolt by the Bengali majority in East Pakistan against oppression by the West Pakistanis revealed the incompatibility and irrationality of having a country composed of two wings separated by a thousand miles of Indian territory. India backed the Bengalis in their insurgency against the predominantly West Pakistani army in East Pakistan. A short sharp Indo-Pakistan war late in 1971 resulted in East Pakistan becoming the independent nation of Bangladesh, while Pakistan was reduced to its western wing only.

Given this political background, it hardly seemed a time to hope for greater subcontinental amity.

Yet when Pakistan prime minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Indian prime minister Indira Gandhi met at the Indian hill station of Simla in the wake of that third war, they produced the one basis ever agreed for Indo-Pakistani peace. Since the Simla agreement signed by Bhutto and Gandhi on July 2, 1972, is still relevant, it is worth recalling in a little detail.

The first paragraph was arresting: "The Government of Pakistan and the Government of India are resolved that the two countries put an end to the conflict and confrontation that have hitherto marred their relations and...work for the establishment of a durable peace in the subcontinent."

It was also agreed that: "Pending the final settlement of any of the problems between the two countries, neither side shall unilaterally alter the situation, and both shall prevent the organization, assistance and encouragement of any acts detrimental to the maintenance of peaceful and harmonious relations."

When the first Indo-Pakistan war ended in 1948-1949, India possessed roughly two-thirds of Kashmir, while Pakistan possessed the other third. The Indian part became the state of Jammu and Kashmir in the Indian federation. The Pakistan sector became Azad Kashmir, Free Kashmir. The line separating the two armies -- the Line of Control (LOC) as it was called -- became the de facto international border partitioning Kashmir.

The Simla agreement laid the basis for the LOC to become a permanent border in Kashmir, as it stipulated that: "The Line of Control shall be respected by both sides without prejudice to the recognized position of either side. Neither side shall seek to alter it unilaterally, irrespective of mutual differences and legal interpretations. Both sides further undertake to refrain from threat, or the use of force in violation of the Line of Control."

At the time, this seemed a tremendous advance towards the only possible exit from Kashmir conflict -- India would continue to claim all of Kashmir and Pakistan would do the same, but they would both respect the reality of the LOC.

As India and Pakistan exchanged maps agreeing to their demarcation of the LOC, at long last an agreed partition of Kashmir to go with the original partition in the rest of the subcontinent in 1947 seemed to be in sight.

There was only one thing wrong with this formulation, and it led to the beginning of what ought to be called the fourth Indo- Pakistan War, the one that is, perhaps, now ending. But it did not begin two months ago when the Indians belatedly discovered Pakistan intrusions across the LOC. In actual fact, it started in 1984.

The LOC agreed at Simla extended across most of Kashmir but faded away to nothing in the east amidst the high Himalayan mountains which lie on either side of the Pakistan and Indian borders with China. The area was remote, extremely frigid, uninhabited and at that stage had not been fought over. One main geographical feature was a huge glacier.

Mountaineers only began exploring the area in the early 1980s. Some, probably most, of the explorers were from the Indian and Pakistan military.

The story goes that, late in 1983, the Indians sent a military mission to Europe to procure high-altitude mountain gear. They discovered that another such mission had preceded them -- and that it had come from Pakistan. This information, together with other Indian intelligence leads, spurred action.

So on April 13, 1984, the Indian military moved into the high ground of the Siachen Glacier and some of the mountain peaks around it. The Pakistan military moved in to contest the issue a few weeks later. Amidst these impossible conditions, with temperatures sometimes dipping to 30, 40 or even 50 degrees below zero, the two nations have been battling the high-altitude Siachen War ever since.

According to recent reports, the Indians still command the heights, and the Pakistanis have a near-impossible job of trying to push the Indians off them. Whether the two sides will ever agree to accept the present Siachen LOC as the de facto border remains in doubt.

Since this Siachen conflict has been going on, in a remote area, at heights of 15,000 feet or more, it has attracted little attention. The world can be forgiven for taking insufficient notice.

Yet the very fact that India and Pakistan have been fighting for the last 15 years, in the harshest sub-zero temperatures, and at altitudes which would inhibit most nations from even considering conflict, helps to highlight a crucial point: Indo- Pakistan rivalry and discord is deep-rooted, enduring and dangerous.

Partition of the subcontinent was justified by some on the grounds that it would reduce communal conflict between Hindus and Muslims. It simply has not done so. All that has happened is that communal conflict has become international strife.