Is the number of crimes in Jakarta increasing?

Is the number of crimes in Jakarta increasing?

By Johannes Sutoyo

JAKARTA (JP): It may be not be true that crime is on the rise
lately.

While it is true that there are more and more crime reports in
the media, it does not necessarily mean that there is an increase
in the crime rate.

The regular reporting of crimes has--on the one hand--a
positive impact on crime prevention. The community becomes more
cautious, and potential criminals have to think twice before
committing a crime.

On the other hand, its negative impacts manifest themselves in
the spread of fear and apathy toward crimes within the community.
On top of these, there is also the tendency for there to be
"trial by the press" as the consequence of news reporting that
completely ignores the principle of presumption of innocence.
Therefore, it is high time the dramatization of crimes by the
mass media were dropped.

The word 'crime' is an ordinary word that carries multiple
meanings as well as a very broad connotation. In general, crimes
can be categorized into (1) Conventional crimes; (2) White-collar
crimes; (3) Victimless crimes, and (4) Organized crimes.

The first category, the conventional crimes, can further be
classified into (a) Crimes of violence, which include cases of
murder, rape, robbery, and mass attack; (b) Property crimes, such
as burglaries, vehicle thefts, vandalism, arson and frauds.

White-collar crimes can be divided into (a) Organizational
occupational crimes; (b) government occupational crimes; (c)
Professional occupational crimes and (d) Individual occupational
crimes.

The remaining two categories of crimes also have their
respective sub-categories. What is important here is the fact
that the word 'crime' has a very broad and varied meaning.

Because of this, we have to be particularly careful in using
the word 'crime' to avoid making a generalization. We have to be
even more careful when we make the statement that criminality is
increasing or decreasing.

Does the exposure of the Bapindo bank fraud case by the mass
media really give us sufficient grounds for saying that the rate
of white-collar crimes in this country has increased? By the same
token, is it because of the recent slaying of Brig. Gen.
Tampubolon we can now say that the rate of violent crimes has
gone up?

The word 'increase' quantitatively indicates a shift from a
smaller figure to a larger one. However, in the context of dis
cussion of crimes, is the use of this word appropriate? If we say
that there has been an increase of crimes, and our statement is
based solely on the shift to a larger figure than the previous
one, then we have made a hasty conclusion.

An increase of crimes should be measured in term of what is
called the 'crime rate', i.e. the number of cases per capita over
a certain period of time.

Only when we have a increase in the figure of the per-capita
crime can we justifiably say that there has been an increase.
Similarly, when we measure the increase of a certain regional
populations, we do not merely count the number of babies who have
been born during a certain period of time -- we also count the
number of people who have passed away during the same period and
in the same area.

Because of the quantitative nature of the term 'crime rate',
we must face the question of how we determine the number of
crimes during a particular period in a particular area? The
police keep the statistics of crimes that we can use for this
purpose.

Records of incidents maintained by the police--including those
resulting from police raids as well as those filed by the
community--make up the statistics.

Taking into account that these statistics are based on the
records collected by the police, we begin to question ourselves
whether the figures correctly reflect the number of crimes that
have actually occurred in the community.

The answer is no.

A large number of criminal cases do not get reported to the
police or are beyond the reach of the law. This means that, to a
certain extent, the statistics can only be used as the basis for
a rough estimate of the extent of criminal behavior.

Furthermore, according to experts in criminology, the number
of unreported cases or the so-called 'hidden crimes' will be much
larger depending on the type of crime. In fact, it typically
varies from 30 to 70 percent.

What is more important as we read the statistics is the fact
that the figures are not isolated from other trends, such as the
increase of the population in the area where they have been
collected.

An increase in the crime rate will be meaningful only if the
size of the population remains constant. If the population has
also increased, it will mean that there has actually been no
increase in the crime rate.

The awareness of the limitations of the statistics to reveal
trends in crime, combined with a correct approach in reading the
figures, will reduce our potential of making errors in stating
whether or not there has been an increase in the number of
crimes.

Another way by which we can determine whether there has been a
rise in crimes is by focusing on the modus operandi of recent
crimes.

This approach concentrates on the increasing sophistication in
the way the crimes are committed, particularly in the way they
are made undetectable and untraceable by law enforcement
officers. There are, in general, two new modes of operation that
criminals use. The first type involves utilization of
technological advancements, such as the computer. The second
relies on well-structured organization.

If the technology used in the mode of operation has been
increasingly sophisticated, we can say that there has been an
increase in the quality of the crimes. Similarly, if the crimes
have been better organized, we can also say the quality has
increased. The most dangerous level of crimes, which requires a
lot of resources to deal with, is the so-called 'organized
crimes'. The Mafia in the U.S. is a good example.

On a continuum, organized crime is located on the right
extreme, while on the left extreme we find syndicates of vehicle
thieves, syndicates of illegal drug sellers, or syndicates of
extortionists.

Borrowing from the field of biology, on the left extreme we
find the embryos and on the right we have the strong, healthy and
growing babies. If in the beginning there was nothing and there
is now the embryo, we can say that, qualitatively, there has been
an increase in crimes.

Regardless of the action taken, it is far easier to tackle the
quantitative increase of crimes than the qualitative increase.

With tight security control everywhere, and an increase of
cleansing operations that are applied as long as the resources
are available, we can expect that the actual criminality will go
down.

However, efforts to work on the qualitative increase of crime
requires a political will and, particularly, a consistency in the
implementation of the political will.

Using the metaphor for the organized crimes, it is much easier
to kill the embryos than to kill the already born babies. To take
the Bapindo case to court is relatively easier than to uncover
similar cases and to consistently prosecute them in court.

The writer is head of the department of criminology at the
University of Indonesia.