Is Megawati ready to be president?

Is Megawati ready to be president?

"Is Megawati ready to be president?" is the question of the
moment. In fact, it was also the question of the moment eighteen
months ago. At that time Megawati was criticized for speaking too
little, being cautious and conservative, lacking intellectual
vision, having a secular outlook and being a woman. Outwardly,
she has not altered. But circumstances have.

In brief, the parties which then wanted a Gus Dur presidency
to block Megawati at all costs now want a Megawati presidency to
get rid of Gus Dur at all costs. Then they criticized Megawati
for visiting Bali instead of visiting Mecca, but now they
criticize Gus Dur for visiting Mecca instead of going to see
Sampit.

However, the axis force and the Functional Group (Golkar) look
like a spouse escaping from a bad marriage into a second marriage
with identical dynamics. Given that these parties never liked
Megawati, that Gus Dur's initial all-party Cabinet was considered
unworkable, and that Megawati is already running some aspects of
government unapplauded, it strains credulity to suggest that a
new coalition Cabinet under Megawati will solve Indonesia's
problems, especially if an axis force or Golkar candidate becomes
the new vice president. Analysts are fond of saying that in
politics there are no enduring friends or foes, but only enduring
interests. But if power is all that matters, it is better to say
that there are only enduring foes disguised as friends.

One big advantage Megawati has over Gus Dur is her greater
popular support. However, this could suffer from a backlash in
East Java against the toppling of Gus Dur. A Megawati presidency
in 1999 had credibility and legitimacy as the outcome of a
democratic election. As the outcome of a process marked by
rancor, duplicity and deceit, a Megawati presidency in 2001 will
be handicapped from the start.

JOHN HARGREAVES

Jakarta