Is Megawati ready to be president?

"Is Megawati ready to be president?" is the question of the moment. In fact, it was also the question of the moment eighteen months ago. At that time Megawati was criticized for speaking too little, being cautious and conservative, lacking intellectual vision, having a secular outlook and being a woman. Outwardly, she has not altered. But circumstances have.

In brief, the parties which then wanted a Gus Dur presidency to block Megawati at all costs now want a Megawati presidency to get rid of Gus Dur at all costs. Then they criticized Megawati for visiting Bali instead of visiting Mecca, but now they criticize Gus Dur for visiting Mecca instead of going to see Sampit.

However, the axis force and the Functional Group (Golkar) look like a spouse escaping from a bad marriage into a second marriage with identical dynamics. Given that these parties never liked Megawati, that Gus Dur's initial all-party Cabinet was considered unworkable, and that Megawati is already running some aspects of government unapplauded, it strains credulity to suggest that a new coalition Cabinet under Megawati will solve Indonesia's problems, especially if an axis force or Golkar candidate becomes the new vice president. Analysts are fond of saying that in politics there are no enduring friends or foes, but only enduring interests. But if power is all that matters, it is better to say that there are only enduring foes disguised as friends.

One big advantage Megawati has over Gus Dur is her greater popular support. However, this could suffer from a backlash in East Java against the toppling of Gus Dur. A Megawati presidency in 1999 had credibility and legitimacy as the outcome of a democratic election. As the outcome of a process marked by rancor, duplicity and deceit, a Megawati presidency in 2001 will be handicapped from the start.

JOHN HARGREAVES

Jakarta