Is China a threat to the U.S.?

By I. Wibowo

SINGAPORE (JP): The recent visit of China's Prime Minister Zhu Rongji to the United States was overshadowed by a range of accusations: Chinese spy allegations, human rights violations, independence for Taiwan and Tibet, and last but not least, membership of the World Trade Organization.

Coupled with the West's uneasiness over China's criticism toward NATO's action in Yugoslavia, one cannot fail to see that all these issues are pointing to one direction: be wary of an ascending China!

The media -- to a lesser extent in Europe than in the U.S. -- appear convinced by arguments put forward in Huntington's book on The Clash of Civilization and Bernstein's and Munro's book The Coming Conflict with China. These books, and many others with similar themes, have been so influential in capturing the imagination of the American people that perceptions of a "China threat" are rife.

This strong anti-Chinese feeling nearly canceled the long- awaited Zhu visit. Given such hostile feelings, it would have been entirely justified if Zhu had not gone to the U.S. And, yet, Zhu did go, not only to display his courage, but also to show the problem is not in China, but in the U.S. itself.

Zhu was keen to overturn widespread perceptions held by U.S. decision-makers of a "threatening" China. So, he kept to his original itinerary, and to everybody's surprise, Zhu presented as a charming, humorous and intelligent person. He was not portrayed as a "heartless communist", contradicting the prevalent image held by average Americans. Most media in the U.S. praised Zhu's nine-day performance, from Los Angeles, Washington, Chicago, Denver, to New York.

Currently, the relationship between China and the U.S. could not be worse. Deterioration began following the June 4 bloody incident in 1989, when the U.S., along with its Western allies, criticized China for its failure to observe human rights. But, the collapse of communism in Russia and other East European countries in 1991 marked a turning point. Although the U.S. did not continue its "containment policy" with China -- which reached a peak during the Cold War era -- the U.S. has been unable to develop friendly relations with China.

The current policy of "constructive engagement" is one of many alternatives that hinders a warm friendship with China. On the one hand, the U.S. would like to maintain a relationship, on the other hand, the U.S. wants to keep its distance.

Within this policy, the U.S. is free to keep normal diplomatic relations, but it also continues to launch criticism. This ranges from human rights, to independence for Taiwan and Tibet, to nuclear proliferation and intellectual property rights. The latest accusation concerns the alleged spying of U.S. nuclear technology. There appears to be a concerted effort among both politicians and the media to paint an ugly picture of China, to the extent that the American public believes that China constitutes a threat. Why is it so?

One theory speculates the U.S. is suffering "enemy deprivation syndrome". During the Cold War, all available resources of the U.S. were geared to topple the "evil empire" in Russia (the expression was Ronald Reagan's). It developed a whole range of modern weaponry and strategies, including the Star Wars system. There was only one obsession with American people: to beat the communists. But now they are gone, they no longer have a focus for their energies and resources. They are desperately in need of an enemy.

Enemy deprivation syndrome apparently has led not only politicians but also scholars to view China as a good substitute target. It is interesting to see how book after book written by American scholars in the past five years on China almost invariably contains a warning on the imminent danger posed by China. Samuel Huntington is a case in point. He vigorously warns Western countries, especially the U.S., to be prepared for conflict with China or a "clash of civilizations". Unless one is ignorant about the nuclear capability of the U.S., it would be difficult to be misled by Huntington's assessment. Given current American military prowess, it is difficult to imagine that China will become a threat to the U.S.

The book by Nathan and Ross, Empty Fortress (1997), is the only exception to the current anti-China publishing trend in the U.S. The authors argue that China is a fortress, indeed a big fortress, which looks frightening. Nevertheless, such a fortress is only an empty fortress because it is not well protected. With persuasive evidence, they oppose "China threat" arguments. This book, however, is not selling well, most likely because the current trend favors the hawks' position.

Americans find it much easier to target China as their "enemy" because of China's former stance as a communist country. In the American imagination, especially that of the hawks, communists equal evil creatures or devils, which they would readily do away with. Although China has, in practice, abandoned communism, this does not count. Until China formally announces it renounces communism, American hawks will continue nurturing the idea that China is a threat. Commenting on the welcoming ceremony given by the Mayor of Chicago to Zhu, one American TV commentator said: "The communist and the capitalist held a toast together".

The "China threat" theory, in other words, does much to serve the interests of American domestic politics. With the presidential election approaching, no party cannot afford to be left behind in condemning "communist China", including the Democrats. Clinton, who is supposed to support Al Gore in the election, sends a clear signal to voters that he is equally, even more, patriotic and nationalistic than the Republican candidates. That is why Clinton, at the last minute, did not support China's entry to the World Trade Organization. This was quite embarrassing for Zhu, but Clinton had to stick to the game.

While in Boston, Zhu said: "China is not the enemy of America, and America is not the enemy of China". Will this message get through? The visit of Zhu Rongji -- the first by a Chinese prime minister in 15 years -- is expected to dispel the "China threat" theory. If it materializes, PM Zhu may be forgiven by his Beijing colleagues for his insistence to go to the United States.

Dr. I. Wibowo is head of the Center for Chinese Studies, Jakarta.