Iraq war sharpens the ASEAN divide, threatens solidarity

Iraq war sharpens the ASEAN divide, threatens solidarity

Lee Kim Chew, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

Like the European Union (EU), the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) is deeply divided over America's war
against Iraq and the 10-member grouping will have to grapple with
the fallout.

While the changes in relations among ASEAN countries will not
be as drastic as that expected in the EU and the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization, the divisions could become sharper and more
pronounced.

Is ASEAN solidarity a lost cause? Maybe.

The new tensions may impede cooperation in the regional
grouping, now that the hostilities in Iraq have polarized ASEAN
states into pro-war and anti-war camps. The war will also affect
ASEAN members' relations with the United States and Australia.

Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's criticisms of
American policy provide a sharp contrast to Singapore's support
for the Bush administration's move to disarm Iraq of weapons of
mass destruction.

Thus far, there is no sign that the differences within ASEAN
have adversely affected the collaboration among the region's
security agencies to combat terrorism. But will these complicate
outstanding problems, such as the spat between Singapore and
Malaysia on bilateral issues?

If nothing else, the differences over America's military
action against Iraq add to the bad vibes. Malaysia has turned
down an invitation from Thailand to take part in this year's
Cobra Gold military exercises with the U.S. and Singapore.
Clearly, this is a spillover of Dr Mahathir's pique.

In any case, the issue that divides -- the legality of
America's war against Iraq, which has provoked contentious debate
in the United Nations -- will not go away.

This issue is not just about the Bush administration's
unilateralism. The controversy is also about America's pre-
eminence as the world's sole superpower and how each ASEAN
country wants to conduct relations with it.

Dr Mahathir knows U.S. businesses may now shun Malaysia
because of his strong anti-U.S. stance, just as the French and
Germans are bracing for Washington's retaliation against their
economic interests.

Indonesia is a different story. Despite Jakarta's opposition
to the war, the U.S. has been careful not to do anything to
rattle President Megawati Soekarnoputri's presidency, for fear of
giving the Islamic radicals more ground to stoke up anti-U.S.
feelings.

Indonesia's touchy relations with Australia are another
matter. Both countries are on opposite sides of the fence.
Indeed, Jakarta's anger at Canberra's role in East Timor's
breakaway has never really subsided. The sore feelings have been
aggravated by Prime Minister John Howard's ambition to make
Australia the region's deputy sheriff.

All told, the political impact of America's war in Iraq has
been negative for ASEAN. This is especially bad for a grouping
that has been floundering since the 1997 Asian financial crisis
devastated the region's economies. A diverse entity that operates
on consensus, ASEAN's inability to act as a cohesive group is now
a rule rather than an exception.

The lack of regional solidarity will not cause ASEAN's break-
up, but it could lead to the growth of a sub-group within the
grouping. The Indochina countries -- Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos
-- may coalesce because of political and geographic affinities,
to augment their bargaining power.

As things stand, the wealth gap in ASEAN is a stark reminder
that it is, in fact, a two-tier grouping of the haves and have-
nots in Southeast Asia.

In the good old days when ASEAN was smaller and its relations
less complicated, the five founding members -- Singapore,
Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines -- found it
easier to work closely together whenever their political
interests converged.

This they did with great effect at the United Nations to
oppose Vietnam's occupation of Cambodia. ASEAN solidarity then
strengthened the grouping and enhanced its diplomatic clout. The
five countries also collaborated when their economic interests
were threatened, as they did to blunt Australia's protectionist
civil aviation policy in the early 1980s.

These days, it is hard to find an issue on which all 10 ASEAN
members can rally together to make common cause.