Iraq-U.S. clash hurts civilians
Having provoked the U.S. to the point of massive retaliation, Saddam Hussein wisely stepped back from the brink on Friday, adopting an ill-fitting posture of rationality and promising not to order any more attacks on planes in Iraq's no-fly zone.
The contrast to his "fight to the death" defiance of just the day before was outrageous but it was nevertheless a highly successful ploy. Saddam has made several gains from his latest showdown with the U.S., and has left Washington looking like an overeager, over-armed policeman spoiling for a fight.
Should Saddam keep his word on the no-fly zone, the United States will risk doing considerable damage to its relations with other Gulf states and its international reputation if it now launches any more attacks on Iraq.
Washington's European allies have already expressed their unease about the confrontation and Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states have been very public about their opposition to any more attacks on Iraq.
Saddam has also achieved some of his aims in northern Iraq through his alliance with Kurdish faction leader Massoud Barzani, whose forces swept through Arbil and Sulaimaniya earlier this month to take control of the region. The only thing new military attacks are likely to achieve would be to enhance his image as the "defender of Arab interests".
Like all dictators, Saddam is living on borrowed time. He has created a society of fear and repression that will inevitably swallow him as well. The divisions and suspicions run so deep in Baghdad that Saddam has even purged some of his own family members. But as long as he is around vigilance remains a good policy.
Now that the immediate military threat from Baghdad appears to have eased attention it is probably a good time to turn the world's attention to helping Iraq's captive population.
Early implementation of Iraq's oil-for-food deal with the United Nations as a means to spare the Iraqi people any further suffering from U.N. sanctions would be a good start.
-- The Nation, Bangkok