Iran's Khatami keeps all guessing as polls loom

By Jon Hemming

TEHRAN (Reuters): "Will he, or won't he?" That is the question on every Iranian's lips. With only 10 days to go before presidential nominations must be in, no one is sure whether popular President Mohammad Khatami will stand.

If he does run for re-election on June 8, few doubt the mild- mannered cleric would win a resounding victory but, in Iran's fractured political arena, that may not be enough.

"The next elections are not just an election, but a referendum over the nature of the Islamic Republic," declared the reformist Mujahideen of the Islamic Revolution.

"The people on June 8 should vote and with their votes should show which interpretation of the Islamic Republic they really want."

At stake is whether it is possible to reconcile the Islamic and the republic in the Islamic Republic. Whether Iran's experiment in religious democracy which has inspired Islamist movements since the 1979 revolution can work at all.

On one side are those for whom the political mandate is ordained by God, on the other those who believe power arises from the backing of the people expressed in the ballot box.

Khatami, a mid-ranking cleric with a philosophical bent, believes in a middle way.

"There are people in the country who say that we need to suppress freedom in order to let religion survive, and there are others who say we need to suppress religion in order to let freedom survive," he said in a keynote speech last month.

"The Islamic Republic is a model under which religion and freedom can live together."

Khatami stunned opponents with a landslide victory in 1997 which propelled him from head of the national library to head of government. For two years unprecedented freedoms flourished, freedoms that were grabbed, especially by the youth.

Color appeared in women's headscarves as dress codes relaxed. Films began to address real issues. Books were less rigorously censored. Pop concerts were held.

And newspapers appeared which were not afraid to delve into official misdeeds and criticize state mismanagement. A group of state intelligence agents conducting killings of dissidents was uncovered and prosecutions got under way.

But still, all was not well with reform. For many conservatives, the new freedoms paraded by the young amounted to little more than mindless mimicking of the immoral West, and criticism of the system an attack on Islam.

Shi'ite Muslims, though the overwhelming majority in Iran, have always been a minority in the Islamic world. Unlike the majority Sunnis, where consensus rules on matters of religious dispute, expert Shi'ite clerics pass judgment on doctrine.

A sweeping victory by Khatami allies in last year's parliamentary polls spurred his opponents into action.

The Guardian Council, 12 men appointed by spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to ensure parliament's laws conform with Islamic law, began to show its own strength.

Legislation introduced by Khatami and passed by MPs, elected representatives of the people, was overturned by the council - they, through the leader, Khamenei, represented God.

The conservative-dominated judiciary, also appointed by the leader, has now banned some 40 pro-reform publications since Khamenei branded them "bases of the enemy" in April last year.

Khatami allies have been prosecuted, removed from office or jailed. Reformists says there is an attempt to discredit Khatami, whose personal popularity is all but unassailable, by blackening his fellow travelers.

Through all this Khatami has remained silent on the big question. Barely anyone is left, from any part of the political spectrum, who has not demanded he make his position clear.

In response, the president has pleaded for more power.

"I am responsible for the constitution and must have the necessary resources to meet this responsibility," he told students in December.

"When I see the law is broken I should be able to stop it immediately and send it for investigation. But I don't have this prerogative. I should have it to do the job correctly."

A man of undoubted sincerity, Khatami may well decide to stand aside. But weighing on his conscience is the knowledge that failure to stand could bring political turmoil and the risk of a low turnout undermining the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic.

"As long as I am convinced that I am able to put a step forward, in spite of all problems and as long as the people wish it, I will be ready to serve," Khatami said in his speech to parliament last month.

Many see in Khatami's reticence a desire to bring home to voters the importance of the choice they have to make, to make sure that when he does enter the polls, he not only wins but wins with such a massive majority that opponents are forced to concede that his renewal of the republic is unstoppable.

"On June 8 the people should prove (Khatami's 1997 election) was not an accident, it was the will of the nation and reforms are irreversible," said the Mujahideen of the Islamic Revolution.