Instability may curtail Fujimori's term

By Alistair Scrutton

LIMA (Reuters): Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori, the victor in a presidential runoff that the United States considers invalid, could find it a struggle to finish his new five-year term because of a weakened mandate and opposition protests, political analysts said on Monday.

While saying it would be difficult to dislodge Fujimori, since he controls much of the media, the judiciary and the armed forces, the analysts added that growing instability at home and pressure from abroad might curtail his stay in office.

They speculated that Fujimori, whose hardline instincts have marked his rule since he was first elected in 1990, might step down, be forced to resign or be pushed into holding a fresh vote before the end of the term he won in Sunday's runoff.

The U.S. State Department rejected Fujimori's victory as invalid on Monday after the vote was boycotted by his challenger, Alejandro Toledo, who had said the incumbent would use fraud to ensure that he won an unprecedented third consecutive election.

After international monitors refused to verify vote counting because of worries about the system's vulnerability to fraud, the U.S. reaction on Monday appeared to pave the way for possible economic sanctions against the poor Andean nation, analysts said.

Toledo, whose popularity has surged in recent months, refused to recognize Sunday's result and said he would lead peaceful resistance.

"Fujimori's time as a successful president has passed. He is now a president who will have to muddle through government," said Mirko Lauer, a columnist at the pro-opposition La Republica newspaper. "He could last two years, no more."

Peru Monitor, a respected independent current affairs magazine, concluded in a report this month that Fujimori's expected election win and a consequent standoff with Toledo would probably require a negotiated solution in which Fujimori would step down before the end of his term.

Still, Fujimori, who has proved himself a master in defeating rebels and runaway inflation in his 10 years in office, has cards up his sleeve for dealing with his two major problems: the U.S. reaction and opposition protests at home.

As a key ally in the global anti-drug war, Fujimori has been a longtime friend of the United States because of his government's success in cutting production of coca leaf -- the raw material for cocaine -- by half in five years.

The U.S. government would not want to risk anti-drug programs by isolating Peru, analysts said.

They added that the United States already had enough worries about the Andean region, with leftist rebels and rising cocaine smuggling in Colombia, an unpredictable Venezuelan leader in Hugo Chavez, and a financial crisis in Ecuador.

"Fujimori will be hoping that once international noise has calmed, most countries, apart from making symbolic gestures, will not seek to ostracize Peru," said John Crabtree, a British-based expert on Peruvian politics.

While Toledo has mobilized tens of thousands of Peruvians in recent days in street protests against the government, he faces serious organizational weaknesses at the head of an opposition consisting of many political groups.

"The opposition will not be able to keep up the momentum of protests. Fujimori can override protests," Crabtree said.

Fujimori could protect his government by hunkering down and waiting for international anger to abate.

"We could see more nationalism from the government -- 'It's them against us' -- putting a curtain around Peru," Lauer said.

One of the scenarios most frequently mentioned by analysts has the president stepping down before his term ends and handing power to his respected vice presidential running mate, Francisco Tudela. The former foreign minister and ambassador to the United Nations is seen as a stronger democrat than Fujimori.

Tudela could become a key power broker if the Organization of American States and the United States insist that Peru hold new elections. His selection as a candidate could allow Fujimori to leave the presidency without losing too much face.

Amid the uncertainty, the role of the armed forces -- a key political factor in Peru -- is in the spotlight, but political analysts are unclear about the strength of their backing for Fujimori.

The president enjoys support from top generals, but there has been rising discontent among middle-ranking officers, who resent what they see as the appointment of Fujimori backers to top ranks, according to military sources.

Any military coup attempt is likely to come from those middle- ranking officers, said Pablo Secada, a political analyst at the Santander Central Hispano investment bank.

But a coup is unlikely unless international criticism and domestic unrest translates into a sense that Fujimori cannot govern, other analysts said.