Indonesia's troubles and the regional community

By Simon S.C. Tay

SINGAPORE (JP): The Indonesian human rights commission has reportedly called for neighbors of the Association of Southeast Asian Countries to help keep the peace in troubled Maluku. The Indonesian government has not replied.

Previous responses have been negative. Many Indonesians still resent the intervention in East Timor. Despite the consent given by then president B.J. Habibie and the sanction of the United Nations, many blame Australia for precipitate action.

On their part, regional governments have not pressed to be involved. ASEAN Ministers did not promise to act or even make specific reference to Maluku when they recently met in Bangkok.

All they did was to issue a statement supporting Indonesia's territorial integrity. Sovereignty is a sensitive issue, especially in Indonesia today.

The suggestion that the region should help Indonesia however bears serious consideration. There is escalating violence and a growing toll of lives in Maluku.

These are gaining increased media attention, not least because the conflicts are between Christians and Muslims. As media attention increases, so do the chances that the international community will demand action or themselves act. How can Maluku be prevented from turning into another East Timor?

Trying to ignore or downplay the situation can be one attempt. But that is like a snail pulling into its shell and may no longer work in a world when the sovereign shell is increasingly thin.

Another way is to prepare Indonesia and its friends to deal with the issue effectively and on agreeable terms. There are a number of reasons to prefer this second approach.

The international community is often inadequate, insensitive and impulsive. Intervention can be followed by sudden turn abouts as in Somalia or a lack of long term commitment.

In East Timor, there was in retrospect a rush to the referendum. There was also a lack of readiness and political will if, as it turned out, the army would not rein in violence. Resented or otherwise, Australia acted because no one else would or could.

There is also a sense that those subject to intervention are failed states or are even criminal, as in cases like Kosovo, Rwanda and Somalia. No matter what its problems, present day Indonesia does not belong to that category. It has been and still is a significant regional and international player.

International intervention can trigger strong nationalistic sentiments and affect the legitimacy of leaders. In such a scenario, President Abdurrahman Wahid, already facing considerable criticism, may not survive. If he goes, there may be more difficulties in the transition to democracy

On the other hand, if Indonesia's friends cooperate and act in concert, they can be both effective and more acceptable. A number of ASEAN countries have experience in United Nations peacekeeping. ASEAN is not a security organization but the military in many countries have long standing bilateral exchanges and a considerable degree of understanding.

Other regional countries can help too. Japan has the capacity to patrol the seas and keep Maluku cordoned off from those who would go to add more fuel to the fires.

In undertaking such work, ASEAN and Asian countries would be better placed than powers further away to respect Indonesian sensitivities and accept its leadership. They will, after all, have to live with Indonesia whatever the results. They neither want instability nor to incur Indonesia's resentment. They can therefore be expected to act reasonably.

Acting together would increase the credibility of ASEAN and of Asian cooperation. Even discussing and preparing to work together would be important. It would strengthen the ability of Indonesia and her friends to influence world opinion against intervention.

For such reasons, if regional assistance is offered, perhaps Indonesia's consent would not be strained, as it was in the case of East Timor. Indeed, Abdurrahman's government might welcome regional assistance for Maluku so that it might give more focus to other pressing problems, such as the economy and situations in Aceh and West Papua.

The increasing troubles in Maluku require attention. Weakened by the crisis, Indonesia on her own has not been effective to date. If it can cope, national action would be the first choice. But if that is not possible, regional action may be the next best option. No neighbor should press Indonesia on this point.

Lines of communication should however be opened for discussion on the possibility of cooperation on this sensitive issue. Assistance, if sought, should be forthcoming. Indonesia and her friends in Asia may find that in an interconnected but imperfect world, they must be seen to deal with their own problems if all wish to keep outsiders out.

The writer is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.