Indonesia's problem today is the President

Indonesia's problem today is the President

To move ahead from a likely return to square one, alternative
agendas of a special session of the People's Consultative
Assembly should be considered, writes Jakarta-based political
analyst J. Soedjati Djiwandono.

JAKARTA (JP): Practically since the election of Abdurrahman
"Gus Dur" Wahid to the presidency, Indonesian politics has been
characterized mainly by bickering among the nation's political
elite. And in the course of time, the bickering has been focused
on a tug-of-war between the President and the legislative bodies,
the House of Representatives and the People's Consultative
Assembly.

Which side actually started the tug-of-war is hard to say.
It's irrelevant, anyway.

The turn of events, however, with two memorandums of censure
issued consecutively within three months by the House (DPR) but
both ignored by the President, has focused on the issue of Gus
Dur's presidency. The President is now the problem. This has
raised expectations for a special session of the Assembly (MPR),
which, with pressure mounting, now seems inevitable.

The crucial question is whether a special session of the MPR
would result in the impeachment of the President. In principle,
it is nothing extraordinary for a democratically elected
President to resign or to be impeached, even after a short time
in office.

A human being can change, for better or for worse, sooner or
later. President Richard Nixon of the United States was about to
be impeached after he had won a second term, and only his timely
resignation saved him from impeachment. After winning his third
term, President Fuji Mori of Peru tendered his resignation by
facsimile from Japan, and the People's Assembly, which instead
decided to fire him, rejected even this. President Joseph Estrada
of the Philippines in his first and only term was eased out of
office in the face of impending impeachment.

Voluntary resignation would save President Abdurrahman from
possible impeachment. This, however, seems to be most unlikely.
On the other hand, an impeachment of the President may have
consequences most people fear, though as yet difficult to
calculate. Indeed, democratization should not be hampered by
threats of violence. The gamble, however, may be too costly for
the nation.

It is in this context that attempts currently made by Vice
President Megawati Soekarnoputri, particularly as leader of the
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), to
convene a meeting of political party leaders for consultations
may be considered. Any agreement reached could not be other than
a compromise. The meeting is probably aimed at avoiding an
impeachment of the President by a special session of the MPR.

Still, speaking of the possibility of Megawati taking over the
presidency and of a possible choice of a new vice president,
House Speaker Akbar Tandjung clearly thought of President
Abdurrahman either resigning or being impeached. Unfortunately,
one of the possible candidates he mentioned is outside the
political party circle.

Quite aside from the issue of either qualification -- which is
of little relevance to democracy -- or of acceptability,
nominating any such one for either president or vice president
would be a bad precedent. The nomination and then election of
President Abdurrahman, strictly speaking, was bad enough for
democracy.

It was already a mockery of the general election, in which he
was not even a contestant. It was an abuse of the MPR's powers.
Anyone with a presidential ambition should join a political
party. General -- later president -- Eisenhower of the U.S. is
one example.

The resignation of President Abdurrahman being almost
definitely out of question, however, his impeachment, apart from
the incalculable risks, is not the only alternative. Moreover,
the President is very good at pettifoggery and seems to enjoy it.

He brushed aside the first House memorandum simply by
affirming that it was unconstitutional, for the establishment of
the House special committee, the conclusion of which was the
basis of the memorandum, was illegal.

More relevantly, he has more than once referred to a provision
in the 1945 Constitution that the President shall submit his
accountability report to the MPR at the end of his term. It would
not seem inconceivable that he would not even attend the MPR
special session.

Then to say the least, we would be back to square one.
Bickering among the political elite would resume with a
vengeance, and so would the tug-of-war between the President and
the legislature. Under such a scenario, the likelihood is that
the country would be in for a new crisis.

What would be another alternative now that a special session
of the MPR seems in the offing and gaining momentum, barring the
impeachment of the President? Two possibilities may be
considered.

One is that the special session is convened not to impeach the
President, but to call a much earlier election. This would be a
lose-lose solution, of not really a win-win solution. It may,
however, be very costly, particularly as one can hardly foresee
what might happen in the interim between the decision to call an
election and the actual ballot day.

The most acceptable, and probably the least costly choice,
therefore, would be for the special session of the MPR to
reaffirm the transfer of greater presidential powers to Vice
President Megawati. Let President Abdurrahman carry on his
presidency until the end of his term, but let him reign, as it
were, not rule the country.