Indonesia's bad dream that might not end

By Peter Milne

JAKARTA (JP): Despite two cabinet reshuffles in as many weeks, these have only created a temporary distraction from the main power game being played out between President Abdurrahman Wahid and his supporters, and those intent on bringing him down.

With political instability the principle impediment to making progress in all areas of governance and the economy, the eyes of both domestic and foreign observers are focused ever more fixedly on the showdown that now seems unavoidable scheduled to occur on Aug. 1 (at the very latest assuming that there is no acceleration over the next five tense weeks).

As the tension and anticipation increase, all that the foreign investment community can do is to watch helplessly. At least they can console themselves in the knowledge that nationalistic fervor has been channeled into the more critical domestic struggle that is taking place: Gone are the tirades against foreign ambassadors, the perceived unfairness of foreign donors and the IMF, and the alleged attempts by "foreign powers" to push Indonesia towards disintegration.

But this is hardly a consolation when we consider the unfolding events on the ever-changing Indonesian political scene. And for Indonesians there is no relief from growing feelings of despair. What we are now witnessing is the Indonesian art of political "compromise" thrown into overdrive, as both sides of the political battlefield struggle to win the support of the more opportunistic floaters who are fortuitously positioned at the center of the forthcoming special session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).

In recent days these more obscure groups to the main party factions are being mentioned, such as the largely Golkar grouping of legislators from the eastern regions of Indonesia, known as Iramasuka (an acronym for Irian Jaya, Maluku, Sulawesi and Kalimantan), and the 135 regional representatives of the MPR. On one level Coordinating Minister for Political, Socials and Security Affairs Gen. (ret) Agum Gumelar and his other ministerial negotiators may be finding progress with the more direct channels rather tough, but negotiations seem to be extremely active at the lower more obscure levels.

For instance, one recent meeting between Iramasuka representatives and the President's lobbyists was followed within a matter of days by a subsequent meeting by the same group with Taufik Kiemas and a group of Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) officials.

Legislators are feeling nervous, because they are suddenly confronted with the reality that this is something Abdurrahman is particularly good at, having already demonstrated his deft skills back in October 1999.

Back then, despite having less than 10 percent of the seats in the MPR, Abdurrahman managed to come from nowhere and clinch the presidency from under Megawati Soekarnoputri's nose. Legislators have also forgotten that they have always been guilty of using their memories selectively.

Challenging the President on the grounds of corruption based on the Bulog-gate and Brunei-gate scandals could prove to have been a major tactical error. The fact is that legislators have been over hasty in throwing stones in their own glasshouse.

The latest investigations into corruption by senior figures in the House of Representatives (DPR) are just a foretaste of the damage that Abdurrahman could do, if he has enough time and full support from his new legal team of Attorney General Baharuddin Lopa and Minister of Justice and Human Rights Marsillam Simanjuntak.

As a result of the latest maneuvering, a rather horrifying possibility is beginning to dawn on many people. The chances are that the outcome of a vote to accept or reject Abdurrahman's accountability speech, or a decision on what should be done in the event that he fails to deliver his accountability, will be devastatingly inconclusive.

Indonesians and the international community alike have been waiting and hoping for months now that somehow the MPR special session would bring a clear resolution to the dreadfully destructive impasse in which the nation now finds itself.

The assumption was that the winner would take over the helm and finally lead the country forward to recovery; wipe the slate clean and begin again, after a terribly bad start. But, in the absence of an overwhelming special session vote one way or the other, the outcome of this entire process that has dragged on for almost six months will only highlight that nothing has been resolved.

With Indonesia already tittering on the brink of another financial crisis as it struggles to deal with its almost unmanageable level of debt, at around 140 percent of gross domestic product, this is not the news that Indonesians had wanted to hear.

Making matters even worse is the likelihood that Abdurrahman will still lose the vote in the Assembly's special session but nonetheless muster respectable support in the process, while Vice President Megawati has always let it be known that she would only accept the presidency if it was close to being unanimous. In other words, Megawati would be unlikely to accept the poisoned chalice of an inconclusive vote against the President.

Just when most observers were thinking that Indonesia's bad dream was coming to a climactic conclusion -- and even Megawati herself was promising the nation peace and tranquility after mid- August -- the unpleasant reality is that the country may be unable to shake itself awake from its unending nightmare.

The writer is managing editor of the Van Zorge Report, published by the Jakarta-based political risk consultancy firm Van Zorge Heffernan & Associates.