Indonesia's bad dream that might not end

Indonesia's bad dream that might not end

By Peter Milne

JAKARTA (JP): Despite two cabinet reshuffles in as many weeks,
these have only created a temporary distraction from the main
power game being played out between President Abdurrahman Wahid
and his supporters, and those intent on bringing him down.

With political instability the principle impediment to making
progress in all areas of governance and the economy, the eyes of
both domestic and foreign observers are focused ever more fixedly
on the showdown that now seems unavoidable scheduled to occur on
Aug. 1 (at the very latest assuming that there is no acceleration
over the next five tense weeks).

As the tension and anticipation increase, all that the foreign
investment community can do is to watch helplessly. At least
they can console themselves in the knowledge that nationalistic
fervor has been channeled into the more critical domestic
struggle that is taking place: Gone are the tirades against
foreign ambassadors, the perceived unfairness of foreign donors
and the IMF, and the alleged attempts by "foreign powers" to push
Indonesia towards disintegration.

But this is hardly a consolation when we consider the
unfolding events on the ever-changing Indonesian political scene.
And for Indonesians there is no relief from growing feelings of
despair. What we are now witnessing is the Indonesian art of
political "compromise" thrown into overdrive, as both sides of
the political battlefield struggle to win the support of the more
opportunistic floaters who are fortuitously positioned at the
center of the forthcoming special session of the People's
Consultative Assembly (MPR).

In recent days these more obscure groups to the main party
factions are being mentioned, such as the largely Golkar grouping
of legislators from the eastern regions of Indonesia, known as
Iramasuka (an acronym for Irian Jaya, Maluku, Sulawesi and
Kalimantan), and the 135 regional representatives of the MPR.
On one level Coordinating Minister for Political, Socials and
Security Affairs Gen. (ret) Agum Gumelar and his other
ministerial negotiators may be finding progress with the more
direct channels rather tough, but negotiations seem to be
extremely active at the lower more obscure levels.

For instance, one recent meeting between Iramasuka
representatives and the President's lobbyists was followed within
a matter of days by a subsequent meeting by the same group with
Taufik Kiemas and a group of Indonesia Democratic Party of
Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) officials.

Legislators are feeling nervous, because they are suddenly
confronted with the reality that this is something Abdurrahman is
particularly good at, having already demonstrated his deft skills
back in October 1999.

Back then, despite having less than 10 percent of the seats in
the MPR, Abdurrahman managed to come from nowhere and clinch the
presidency from under Megawati Soekarnoputri's nose. Legislators
have also forgotten that they have always been guilty of using
their memories selectively.

Challenging the President on the grounds of corruption based
on the Bulog-gate and Brunei-gate scandals could prove to have
been a major tactical error. The fact is that legislators have
been over hasty in throwing stones in their own glasshouse.

The latest investigations into corruption by senior figures in
the House of Representatives (DPR) are just a foretaste of the
damage that Abdurrahman could do, if he has enough time and full
support from his new legal team of Attorney General Baharuddin
Lopa and Minister of Justice and Human Rights Marsillam
Simanjuntak.

As a result of the latest maneuvering, a rather horrifying
possibility is beginning to dawn on many people. The chances are
that the outcome of a vote to accept or reject Abdurrahman's
accountability speech, or a decision on what should be done in
the event that he fails to deliver his accountability, will be
devastatingly inconclusive.

Indonesians and the international community alike have been
waiting and hoping for months now that somehow the MPR special
session would bring a clear resolution to the dreadfully
destructive impasse in which the nation now finds itself.

The assumption was that the winner would take over the helm
and finally lead the country forward to recovery; wipe the slate
clean and begin again, after a terribly bad start. But, in the
absence of an overwhelming special session vote one way or the
other, the outcome of this entire process that has dragged on for
almost six months will only highlight that nothing has been
resolved.

With Indonesia already tittering on the brink of another
financial crisis as it struggles to deal with its almost
unmanageable level of debt, at around 140 percent of gross
domestic product, this is not the news that Indonesians had
wanted to hear.

Making matters even worse is the likelihood that Abdurrahman
will still lose the vote in the Assembly's special session but
nonetheless muster respectable support in the process, while Vice
President Megawati has always let it be known that she would only
accept the presidency if it was close to being unanimous. In
other words, Megawati would be unlikely to accept the poisoned
chalice of an inconclusive vote against the President.

Just when most observers were thinking that Indonesia's bad
dream was coming to a climactic conclusion -- and even Megawati
herself was promising the nation peace and tranquility after mid-
August -- the unpleasant reality is that the country may be
unable to shake itself awake from its unending nightmare.

The writer is managing editor of the Van Zorge Report,
published by the Jakarta-based political risk consultancy firm
Van Zorge Heffernan & Associates.