Indonesia's 59th Independence Day, and Its Future

Indonesia's 59th Independence Day, and Its Future

Jusuf Wanandi
Jakarta

After eight years of multiple crises encompassing all fields
of life, and many pessimistic evaluations and assessments,
including mine, it is about time to ask ourselves what lies ahead
for us? Should we be more optimistic about the future? Are we
still going to keep muddling through or are better days going to
come soon?

Some scholars from both within and without Indonesia were even
thinking earlier about whether a united Indonesia consisting of
such diversity could be maintained. They were wondering whether
the founding fathers understood the rationale for such unity or
whether they were mainly driven by the struggle against Dutch
colonialism.

Others have argued that Indonesia is doomed to become a
failed state with the all the ensuing anarchy that could be a
real calamity for the region. The question for them was how many
states Indonesia would splinter into.

Those pessimistic pronouncements are now largely forgotten.
Things have not yet turned around completely, but the pessimism
has been overcome. Of course, real suffering and real setbacks
are still being felt, but there is no more talk about the
possible breakdown of the state or the implosion and
disintegration of Indonesia into several states.

The most recent and best indication of this has been the
series of elections that have taken place, with two of the
planned three already implemented peacefully, democratically and
honestly. The Indonesian people have shown some political
maturity, with 84.06 percent participating in the legislative
elections in April, and 78.23 percent in the first round of the
presidential election in July.

The Indonesian people have brought democracy several notches
higher and they have to be congratulated for that. This is a
watershed in Indonesia's political development, and one of which
we should be proud.

It is also a major step toward overcoming the multiple crises
that have been afflicting our country. If the second and final
round of the presidential election brings about better
leadership, then the ground has been laid to move on with
national development and modernization.

We know now that despite the inadequacies and lacunae that
affected the reform process, we have the wherewithal to overcome
the crises. The people have been sufficiently resilient and
patient despite all the setbacks.

Decentralization toward regional autonomy, however messy and
full of inadequacies it still is, is being implemented with
qualified success. At the very least, regional conflicts have
been alleviated. More then that, it has brought democracy closer
to the common people at the grassroots level, including in the
outer islands.

While unemployment is still high and poverty continues to
afflict 18 percent of the people, it has come down from 24
percent at the height of the crisis. Per capita income is again
back to the level it was before the crisis, around US$1,000 per
head.

The fundamentals of the macroeconomy are healthy: Inflation is
under control, the fiscal deficit is minimal at about 1.2 percent
of the budget, foreign reserves stand at about $35.9 billion, the
current account in the balance of payments is set positive for
the near future, growth is close to 5 percent, and the foreign
exchange rate is relatively stable.

Of course, microeconomic and non-economic factors still
present real problems that have been hampering foreign
investment: The lack of the rule of law (including judicial
corruption), and security issues still present uncertainties,
although regional conflicts, except for Aceh, have basically been
overcome. Disturbances in Java have been prevented and some
semblance of stability has been achieved.

Corruption is still rampant, and a lot has yet to be done,
while leadership in this regard has been notably weak. While this
is an issue that will need to be tackled over the long term,
visible progress needs to be made.

Global and regional terrorists have been put on the defensive,
but not overcome. With regard to winning the hearts and minds of
Muslims, a lot has been achieved by moderate leaders, as has been
shown by the legislative elections and the first round of the
presidential election.

Moderate Muslim groups and parties, together with the
nationalists, have won overwhelmingly, gaining almost 80 percent
of the vote. But more needs to be done. Democracy with social
justice needs to be established with the Muslims as the
mainstream and mainstay of Indonesia's political and democratic
development.

The economy needs to return to annual growth of 6-7 percent,
which is the minimum that is necessary to employ the two million
new workers coming onto the labor market each year. In addition,
exerting democratic control over the Indonesian Armed Forces
(TNI) should be a priority because otherwise it could create a
split in the body politic, and tensions or even conflicts in the
future. That is why the TNI Bill, which is currently being
considered by the House, must be deliberated in earnest and with
a clear view of Indonesia's democratic development.

But above all, leadership is important and crucial for making
this vital change possible in Indonesia during the next phase of
national development and modernization, and for ensuring that it
is trusted and supported by the people. The choice in the final
round of the presidential election is not one of who is best, but
rather of who will pose the least risk in overcoming the
obstacles to national and democratic development.

Megawati, who is pro-pluralism and has allowed democracy and
economic growth to flourish at the initiative of society and the
people, should be the choice if she could improve on her
leadership, that is to say, become more proactive and closer to
the people. She also needs to recruit a better team, adopt a more
hands-on approach to overcoming constraints on the economy, such
as corruption, and be willing to establish coalitions with the
other main parties.

As has been said in an earlier article, the other candidate,
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, still poses cause for concern as he is
encircled by so many ex-generals from the former regime. Their
relationship with the New Order regime is still too fresh in our
minds for us to be able to trust the leadership of the state to
them.

His VP candidate, Jusuf Kalla, also suffers from a problem of
credibility, especially among the Indonesian Chinese and foreign
economic interests, as his group and he himself are considered to
be too narrowly nationalist. Being anti-foreign and introducing
affirmative action policies will be counterproductive to the
effort to attract private capital to stimulate Indonesia's
economic growth.

Making a choice is necessary for Indonesia's future
development. One can see Indonesia's future travail as a glass
that is half empty or half full. Businessmen always tend to see
it as half empty.

Indonesians should assess their leaders with a critical eye.
In today's Indonesia, it is important for leaders to first
develop trust. Together with the people, they can bring Indonesia
towards a better future through democratic means and social
justice for the populace at large.

The writer is a cofounder and member of the board of trustees
of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).