Indonesia's 59th Independence Day, and Its Future

Jusuf Wanandi Jakarta

After eight years of multiple crises encompassing all fields of life, and many pessimistic evaluations and assessments, including mine, it is about time to ask ourselves what lies ahead for us? Should we be more optimistic about the future? Are we still going to keep muddling through or are better days going to come soon?

Some scholars from both within and without Indonesia were even thinking earlier about whether a united Indonesia consisting of such diversity could be maintained. They were wondering whether the founding fathers understood the rationale for such unity or whether they were mainly driven by the struggle against Dutch colonialism.

Others have argued that Indonesia is doomed to become a failed state with the all the ensuing anarchy that could be a real calamity for the region. The question for them was how many states Indonesia would splinter into.

Those pessimistic pronouncements are now largely forgotten. Things have not yet turned around completely, but the pessimism has been overcome. Of course, real suffering and real setbacks are still being felt, but there is no more talk about the possible breakdown of the state or the implosion and disintegration of Indonesia into several states.

The most recent and best indication of this has been the series of elections that have taken place, with two of the planned three already implemented peacefully, democratically and honestly. The Indonesian people have shown some political maturity, with 84.06 percent participating in the legislative elections in April, and 78.23 percent in the first round of the presidential election in July.

The Indonesian people have brought democracy several notches higher and they have to be congratulated for that. This is a watershed in Indonesia's political development, and one of which we should be proud.

It is also a major step toward overcoming the multiple crises that have been afflicting our country. If the second and final round of the presidential election brings about better leadership, then the ground has been laid to move on with national development and modernization.

We know now that despite the inadequacies and lacunae that affected the reform process, we have the wherewithal to overcome the crises. The people have been sufficiently resilient and patient despite all the setbacks.

Decentralization toward regional autonomy, however messy and full of inadequacies it still is, is being implemented with qualified success. At the very least, regional conflicts have been alleviated. More then that, it has brought democracy closer to the common people at the grassroots level, including in the outer islands.

While unemployment is still high and poverty continues to afflict 18 percent of the people, it has come down from 24 percent at the height of the crisis. Per capita income is again back to the level it was before the crisis, around US$1,000 per head.

The fundamentals of the macroeconomy are healthy: Inflation is under control, the fiscal deficit is minimal at about 1.2 percent of the budget, foreign reserves stand at about $35.9 billion, the current account in the balance of payments is set positive for the near future, growth is close to 5 percent, and the foreign exchange rate is relatively stable.

Of course, microeconomic and non-economic factors still present real problems that have been hampering foreign investment: The lack of the rule of law (including judicial corruption), and security issues still present uncertainties, although regional conflicts, except for Aceh, have basically been overcome. Disturbances in Java have been prevented and some semblance of stability has been achieved.

Corruption is still rampant, and a lot has yet to be done, while leadership in this regard has been notably weak. While this is an issue that will need to be tackled over the long term, visible progress needs to be made.

Global and regional terrorists have been put on the defensive, but not overcome. With regard to winning the hearts and minds of Muslims, a lot has been achieved by moderate leaders, as has been shown by the legislative elections and the first round of the presidential election.

Moderate Muslim groups and parties, together with the nationalists, have won overwhelmingly, gaining almost 80 percent of the vote. But more needs to be done. Democracy with social justice needs to be established with the Muslims as the mainstream and mainstay of Indonesia's political and democratic development.

The economy needs to return to annual growth of 6-7 percent, which is the minimum that is necessary to employ the two million new workers coming onto the labor market each year. In addition, exerting democratic control over the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) should be a priority because otherwise it could create a split in the body politic, and tensions or even conflicts in the future. That is why the TNI Bill, which is currently being considered by the House, must be deliberated in earnest and with a clear view of Indonesia's democratic development.

But above all, leadership is important and crucial for making this vital change possible in Indonesia during the next phase of national development and modernization, and for ensuring that it is trusted and supported by the people. The choice in the final round of the presidential election is not one of who is best, but rather of who will pose the least risk in overcoming the obstacles to national and democratic development.

Megawati, who is pro-pluralism and has allowed democracy and economic growth to flourish at the initiative of society and the people, should be the choice if she could improve on her leadership, that is to say, become more proactive and closer to the people. She also needs to recruit a better team, adopt a more hands-on approach to overcoming constraints on the economy, such as corruption, and be willing to establish coalitions with the other main parties.

As has been said in an earlier article, the other candidate, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, still poses cause for concern as he is encircled by so many ex-generals from the former regime. Their relationship with the New Order regime is still too fresh in our minds for us to be able to trust the leadership of the state to them.

His VP candidate, Jusuf Kalla, also suffers from a problem of credibility, especially among the Indonesian Chinese and foreign economic interests, as his group and he himself are considered to be too narrowly nationalist. Being anti-foreign and introducing affirmative action policies will be counterproductive to the effort to attract private capital to stimulate Indonesia's economic growth.

Making a choice is necessary for Indonesia's future development. One can see Indonesia's future travail as a glass that is half empty or half full. Businessmen always tend to see it as half empty.

Indonesians should assess their leaders with a critical eye. In today's Indonesia, it is important for leaders to first develop trust. Together with the people, they can bring Indonesia towards a better future through democratic means and social justice for the populace at large.

The writer is a cofounder and member of the board of trustees of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).