Indonesia's 2004 elections: Predicting is harder than ever
Indonesia's 2004 elections: Predicting is harder than ever
Part 1 of 2
Jusuf Wanandi, Member, Board of Trustees , Centre for Strategic and
International Studies, (CSIS), Jakarta
Election fever along with the inevitable campaigning
essentially began as soon as the legislation was finalized by the
House of Representatives (DPR) in mid-2003.
Efforts are already underway to mobilize funding to establish
local committees, and prospective candidates have been selected
and proposed from the various political parties. Based on the
amended Constitution, there are two very pronounced changes: The
direct election of the president in two stages, and the election
of a kind of regional/provincial representatives (or the
"Senate") council with limited powers to represent the regions.
While the elections of the president and House legislators
will involve candidates that are put forward by political
parties, the "Senate" or the Regional Representatives Council
(Dewan Perwakilan Daerah, DPD) will be composed of
personal/individual candidates.
Public opinion polls have been undertaken by many media groups
or NGO's interested in the general elections. Their results have
varied wildly and their accuracy is suspect because this is new
phenomenon for Indonesian society and only certain segments of
Indonesians can be, or are intentionally, polled, mainly people
in large cities, with home telephones, so normally just the elite
and middle class. However, such limited surveys are not able to
reach an accurate cross-section of the many greatly diverse
demographic segments, and that is particularly important because
most people in this multifarious archipelago vote based on which
group they come from, depending on one -- or a combination of --
factors that include religion, ethnicity or regional identity.
Most domestic institutions, such as political organizations or
mass-based organizations are still underdeveloped. Only the
Golkar Party has a reasonably organized network nationwide. The
other ones are still based on those demographic group identities.
The electronic media, especially radio and TV, will play a
certain role, now that freedom of expression is legal. However,
most of such media is owned by urban, upper-class groups in
society, including the family and/or cronies of former president
Soeharto. It should be noted, however, that their influence on
people's voting behavior is not very clear, because this is also
a relatively new instrument here. But radio and TV certainly have
a wider reach than the print media, or so it would seem.
The new political laws are very much in favor of the existing
political parties that are well-represented in the DPR. The four
or five largest political parties now in the DPR are likely to
maintain their dominance. Only their ranking amongst themselves
may change.
For instance, based on the performance in regional elections
of governors or bupati (regents), the Golkar party seems to be
the best organized party and has been able to win a majority of
governors and regents (48 percent of governors and 36 percent of
regents are Golkar members).
On the other hand, there have been tensions and rifts within
PDI-P, where the central board often clashed with the local
branches on selecting the candidates for governors or regents.
This has caused a major split among party members and supporters.
In addition, the disappointing lack of achievement by the
Cabinet, led by a PDI-P president, will also hurt the party.
The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which is headed by Muslim
intellectuals and academics, has shown that it is a well-
organized institution, although it is very much based on a strict
interpretation of Islamic principles. PKS has, however, shown
that it can be a responsible and peaceful group in its reactions
to certain events that anger more militant Muslims -- the
exceptionally peaceful Iraq War marches are a good example. It is
still a very small party and has only seven seats in the DPR, but
it could easily double that in the next election.
Another strict Islam-based party, the Crescent Star Party
(PBB) -- their symbol and beliefs are akin to the conservative ex
Masyumi Party -- on the other hand, is expected to lose a lot of
support although it is now slightly larger than the PKS, among
other things because of divisions in the party.
The new rules make it difficult for new parties to have a
chance to change the political equation. The rules also severely
restrict the role of individuals in the DPR. Anybody interested
in becoming a legislator or a Presidential candidate has to
depend on the support of political parties.
The legislative elections are as important as the presidential
election because according to the new Constitution the president
has to get the consent or advice from the DPR on almost every
important matter including legislation, budgets, control and the
appointment of every important state agency such as the commander
of the Armed Forces, the National Police chief, the governor of
the central bank, the Supreme Court head and all ambassadors.
Since there is not likely to be a party with an outright
majority in the DPR, coalitions and alliances are necessary to
get policies through. This will be an important requirement for
the next president and his/her Cabinet. For this reason, the
person that becomes president will hopefully be an experienced
and astute politician in addition to being a capable
administrator and a respected leader.
An important factor in the presidential elections is the rule
that the whole country is treated as one electoral region in that
every vote counts the same in the second round of the election,
whether it is from Java or outside Java, the so-called full
proportional system. This makes Java, which has 60 percent of
the voting populace, a very important area for any presidential
candidate.
Thus, the combination of the presidential and vice-
presidential candidates, (name recognition), and how they
represent parties' demographic/identity groups, will be critical,
especially in the first round of elections, because there will be
several candidates. In the second round, however, Java will be
dominant, and the candidate that can get a majority in Java with
over 60 percent of the votes will have a very good chance of
winning.
What Indonesia needs, as a President, is someone who is
experienced in government and administration, an astute and
capable politician and a balanced, moderate leader.
But the situation before the presidential election is still
very fluid. Attempts have been made to form alliances and
coalitions to weaken Megawati's second term prospects. Some
parties still have their options open in choosing their
Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates, and with whom they
will forge an alliance. At this juncture it is very difficult to
predict the outcome.
There are two big influences on the presidential election that
need to be watched are: First, name recognition and popularity of
the candidate, and second, support from the most number of
demographic segments via a greatly organized political machine.
Both are needed, but which of those will be more decisive is
still an open question, because it will be the first time that
voters have experienced a direct presidential election.
But if history is any indication, both in this first round of
the presidential election and in the legislative election, name
recognition will be important, but more so will be the party
machinery and the societal groups that support certain
candidates. Adept party members and money are important
requirements for the machinery and organization to perform. The
groups can be religious, ethnic or region-based and are still
very influential at the rural, grass-roots level.
For Java's relatively more educated voters, and in many cities
outside Java, the resistance against Golkar during the Soeharto
period earlier was such that Golkar could never get more than 50-
60 percent in such areas, despite having exercised a great amount
of pressure. The other important factors are the people's
political awareness and willingness to make their own choice. It
should be noted that there has been some resistance against the
incumbent PDI-P. It will be important to follow the trends
closely because of the fluidity of the situation in order to
monitor changes before the elections are held.