'Indonesians must live with instability'

'Indonesians must live with instability'

The blame for the current economic and political crisis cannot be
laid at President Abdurrahman Wahid's doorstep alone. Instability
is inevitable given the existing political system, according to
Takashi Shiraishi, an Indonesia observer at Tokyo University. The
writer of "Indonesia, the Nation and Politics" and "Sukarno and
Suharto" shares his thoughts in an interview with The Jakarta
Post's reporter Kornelius Purba in Tokyo recently.

Question: Your assessment of Abdurrahman Wahid's
administration?

Answer: it is very important to remember that Abdurrahman
Wahid's administration is the first to have been democratically
elected and, therefore, it enjoys a popular mandate. This is a
very crucial opportunity to restore popular trust, not only in
the government but also in the state apparatus.

I don't agree with many members of the legislature (who say)
the President is not doing his job, that he should step down. It
(would be) very difficult for anybody to overcome the political
and economic crisis, and to restore popular trust in the state
apparatus within the space of a year. It could (be) done... in at
least five years. The President should, therefore, be given a
full five years as constitutionally stipulated.

Q: Your assessment of the President's relations with Vice
President Megawati, who was actually the winner of the 1999
general elections?

A: (In Indonesia's) political system... the President is not
directly elected, but elected in the People's Consultative
Assembly (MPR). There is a room for a coalition of parties to
elect a President who is not the candidate of the largest party.
So this is something you cannot avoid with your current political
system. And, therefore, it is not necessarily unfair. I said it
is certainly legitimate.

But I think it is very important to keep in mind that...your
presidential system is different from, say, the U.S. presidential
system. In the U.S. (there's) the division of powers that means
you have the executive, you have the legislature, you have the
judiciary and the checks and balances.

In Indonesia, the political system is built... rather on the
(concept of) distribution of power. That means that the MPR
distributes power to the executive, DPR and the judiciary. And
therefore legally, constitutionally speaking, the MPR has the
power to oust the President at any time. And this system is
therefore stable only when the President can control the MPR as
Soeharto (did).

Under the current circumstances, there is no way for the
President to control the MPR. Even Ibu Megawati cannot control
the MPR because her PDI Perjuangan (PDI-P) controls only a third
of the (legislative) seats. That means that whoever becomes the
President, he or she cannot control the MPR, and therefore
Indonesian politics will remain apparently unstable. In a sense,
you have to live with this political system, because this is what
the election gives you.

Certainly (Megawati) controls about a third of the MPR and,
therefore, she has a very important influence... over whether Gus
Dur remains in power or not.

If I were in her position, I would certainly say that this is
a democratically elected president and I would, therefore, not
oust him because I (would not wish to be recorded) in history as
someone who ousted a constitutionally elected President.
(Besides), she is (only) 53 years old, she can still wait.

I am sure that she will be the next President anyway. (I
believe) she would rather stay in her current position as Vice
President (because) she can learn.. about administration and
prepare herself (for the next presidency).

As long as she supports the President, the current
administration will remain in power.

Q: Your assessment of the relationship between Amien Rais, Gus
Dur and Megawati?

A: Amien Rais' National Mandate Party (PAN) only won a small
number of votes. He has attracted attention because he is the MPR
Speaker, and he has... charisma. But once (you) start counting
the number of (his supporters in the) MPR, you know he does not
have much influence. His power is inflated in the newspapers.

Basically it is Ibu Megawati who has the final say. And, of
course, you know, Akbar Tandjung gets along with Megawati,
because Akbar Tandjung, in fact, does not have the legitimacy to
be the next President because of his past. So he can only hope to
be in power as a partner to Megawati's PDI-P.

There are now a lot of former supporters of Soeharto (joining
PDI-P). It's very interesting (to see) a big change in Golkar.
Those sitting in the Golkar seats in the late 1980s (were)
basically Benny Moerdani's people, as well as Sudharmono's
people. And, in the 1990s these people were ousted and replaced
by Habibie's people, those who (also) joined the Association of
Indonesian Muslim Intellectuals (ICMI).

Now they are struggling to come back to power with their
legitimacy renewed by Ibu Megawati...Look at Arifin Panigoro who
was the protege of Ginandjar and Megawati's secretary Pramono
Anung, who was once a Ginandjar man as well. Basically, she is
now enjoying the support of those people who once supported
Soeharto in 1980s.

Q: Your assessment of Gus Dur's one-year administration?

A: (His most important achievement) is in diplomatic affairs.
There is still a lot goodwill for him although in the last
several months the relationship between Indonesia and the U.S. is
no longer as it should be. But, certainly, he improved the
position of Indonesia internationally.

And, economically I must say that he has done much. Recently
Indonesia's economy has been doing very well in any case, despite
the government...

As I said, there is no one under the current circumstances who
can control the MPR because it is very divided.

As a result (of Gus Dur's accommodating the wishes of many
parties), he now has a cabinet that does not work as a team.
Ministers say things that contradict their colleagues. Now that
he knows the coalition government does not work, he has filled
the cabinet with people that he knows he can trust. This made
people unhappy. Amien Rais is especially unhappy; it is,
therefore, easy to understand why Amien Rais is saying what he is
now saying.

The current cabinet is better than the last one. Coordinating
ministers really coordinate. Therefore, there is a better chance
for this cabinet to succeed. It should be given time. And it is
working under better circumstances because the economy is doing
better despite the government.

As well, there is a lot of international support, as you
learned from the recent Consultative Group on Indonesia (CGI)
meeting.

Q: Does Soeharto still have influence, given the fact that we can
see that the government hasn't been able to act against him?

A: I think Soeharto is dying. Certainly I do not know about his
state of health, but I have heard from many different sources
that he no longer understands what people are saying. It is
rather difficult to imagine that he is still directing political
actions behind the scene.

But there are other people around him, people with money like
his children. There are people with enough reasons, who have
enough money, to do things to destabilize the regime.

Q: Your assessment of the military's current role in politics?

A: This is probably the most crucial issue. I am sorry to say
that journalists did a bad job in Indonesia as well as abroad by
confusing Lt. Gen. Agus Wirahadikusumah as a reformist.

I think it is very important to distinguish between the
question of reforms in the military and the question of Agus
Wirahadikusumah. Agus made himself available for the President's
intervention in the military. And even though he is a reformist,
he is also a political general.

He played politics for his own (interests) and, in a sense, he
caused major damage to the present military reforms. But there
are people who still support reforms..they are equally angry at
Agus actually.

I think that whatever happens with Agus, for example, the
reform in the territorial structure will proceed. The majority of
military officers, and I am talking about generals, have come to
the conclusion that (reform) is something they cannot avoid. Like
it or not, they have now accepted that they have to change
further, to get out of politics. They should be nonpartisan, and
they should gradually phase out their territorial operations, and
turn over the territorial function to the police.

The question is, how long will this process take? Given the
enormous task in replacing institutions, I tend to agree with
people like Lt. Gen. Agus Wijaya, that it will take at least five
to seven years (for) the police to replace the military in
performing its territorial function.

Q: Do you think Gen. Wiranto still has influence over the current
political situation?

A: I think he is still has a lot of influence, but again, you
know, if you ask whether he can be remembered as a good military
leader, I don't think so. He should have resigned after the
destruction of East Timor. Indonesia lost the long war in East
Timor, and it was the first defeat for the Indonesian military.

Any general, any commander in chief who lost a war should
resign, and he did not. I am sure there are now officers who
think of him, "Here is the general who lost the war, and who
tried to retain his power even after he lost the war."