Indonesianists give mixed views on Gus Dur's win

Indonesianists give mixed views on Gus Dur's win

JAKARTA (JP): News of Abdurrahman Wahid's win in the
presidential election met on Wednesday with mixed reactions among
Indonesianists abroad with most expressing surprise and cautious
optimism.

"If you had asked me five or six years ago whether Abdurrahman
would be a good president, I would have said yes. But after his
stroke, he became hard to follow. Nobody knows what he is going
to do next," said Arief Budiman of the University of Melbourne in
Australia.

Arief was pleased about one aspect: the victory of the reform
movement.

He expressed hope that Abdurrahman would accommodate all sides
in forming his Cabinet, including a coalition with the Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan).

The possibility of widescale unrest is reduced by the fact
that Abdurrahman is Megawati's good friend, so PDI Perjuangan
supporters should not be too outraged, Arief said.

Richard W. Baker of the East West Center in Hawaii said the
election of Abdurrahman as President was considered an unlikely
outcome by many right up until the actual counting of the
ballots.

However, he said that it had to be assessed as a profoundly
positive development for Indonesia.

Abdurrahman is the one figure who demonstrated an ability to
work with virtually all the other contenders and factions, he
said.

"The traits that have sometimes made him appear unpredictable,
even inconsistent, in recent months may now enable him, as
President, to bring together the widest possible political
coalition."

"Abdurrahman's fundamental personal integrity, his resilience
in which he withstood concerted efforts by the Soeharto
government to undermine his position within Nahdlatul Ulama,
started well before Megawati's trials as leader of the PDI, and
his dedication to the creation of a more democratic, honest and
clean government are beyond doubt."

Abdurrahman also has substantial international experience and
is widely respected around the world. These attributes should
also serve him and Indonesia well in the difficult period of
recovery that still lies ahead, he said.

"Abdurrahman's uncertain health has been widely seen as his
greatest liability as a candidate. However, it also provides
additional assurance that as President he will focus on serving
the nation's interests rather than enhancing and perpetuating his
own position."

Nevertheless, the major uncertainty about his presidency
remains whether his health will permit him to govern
energetically enough, and long enough, to bring about
fundamental, enduring change in the government and political
systems, he said.

In short, Baker said the election of Abdurrahman may well turn
out to be a classic moment in Indonesian political history -- a
surprise outcome that has given the country the right leader,
with the right combination of qualities, at a time when those
qualities are sorely needed.

Harold Crouch of the Australian National University said, "I
really thought that Abdurrahman would have pulled out in favor of
Megawati."

Crouch described Abdurrahman as unpredictable and interesting.
And he would not indulge in corruption, collusion and nepotism.

"Though whether he can deal with corruption, collusion,
nepotism is another thing."

Whatever he would do, Crouch said, it would be different from
what Habibie had done. Crouch's concern was his inclination to be
erratic, which could cause continuous uncertainty in the
political configuration of the country.

What Damien Kingsbury, the executive director of Monash Asia
Institute, saw as advantageous was that Abdurrahman would be able
to bring together an alliance of Islamic and reformist groups,
such as the United Development Party (PPP) and the reformist
faction of Golkar and PDI Perjuangan.

"Another leader would have been more divisive," said
Kingsbury.

However, Kingsbury had some reservations about how quickly
Abdurrahman shifted positions lately.

This, he said, might have a destabilizing effect in the future
political configuration.

Kingsbury was also concerned about how Megawati's supporters
would react to such a close defeat.

As for how stable the future government would be, Kingsbury
believed it would depend on who Abdurrahman would appoint in his
Cabinet.

Of no less importance, he said, was the person who would be
the Indonesian Military chief.

"However, I believe Abdurrahman is a good consensus candidate.
And that is a good thing," Kingsbury concluded.

Bob Lowry of the Australian Defense Academy in Canberra and
author of The Armed Forces of Indonesia, also pointed to the fact
that Abdurrahman was a democrat. "He's a reformist. Not one of
the old guards," he said.

However, Lowry suspected that Abdurrahman may have done deals
with some of the "old guards".

"It is interesting that Golkar did not run their candidate,"
he said. Lowry believed that the future government had an
enormous challenge.

"They need to do a complete overhaul of the whole system.
Reestablish the rule of law, review defense policy, review
internal policy, promote economic growth and political stability.
And they have to show some results pretty quickly. They must
learn from the Pakistan lesson, where the military were driven to
take over power because the civilian government had made such a
mess of it." (hbk)