Indonesianists give mixed views on Gus Dur's win

JAKARTA (JP): News of Abdurrahman Wahid's win in the presidential election met on Wednesday with mixed reactions among Indonesianists abroad with most expressing surprise and cautious optimism.

"If you had asked me five or six years ago whether Abdurrahman would be a good president, I would have said yes. But after his stroke, he became hard to follow. Nobody knows what he is going to do next," said Arief Budiman of the University of Melbourne in Australia.

Arief was pleased about one aspect: the victory of the reform movement.

He expressed hope that Abdurrahman would accommodate all sides in forming his Cabinet, including a coalition with the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan).

The possibility of widescale unrest is reduced by the fact that Abdurrahman is Megawati's good friend, so PDI Perjuangan supporters should not be too outraged, Arief said.

Richard W. Baker of the East West Center in Hawaii said the election of Abdurrahman as President was considered an unlikely outcome by many right up until the actual counting of the ballots.

However, he said that it had to be assessed as a profoundly positive development for Indonesia.

Abdurrahman is the one figure who demonstrated an ability to work with virtually all the other contenders and factions, he said.

"The traits that have sometimes made him appear unpredictable, even inconsistent, in recent months may now enable him, as President, to bring together the widest possible political coalition."

"Abdurrahman's fundamental personal integrity, his resilience in which he withstood concerted efforts by the Soeharto government to undermine his position within Nahdlatul Ulama, started well before Megawati's trials as leader of the PDI, and his dedication to the creation of a more democratic, honest and clean government are beyond doubt."

Abdurrahman also has substantial international experience and is widely respected around the world. These attributes should also serve him and Indonesia well in the difficult period of recovery that still lies ahead, he said.

"Abdurrahman's uncertain health has been widely seen as his greatest liability as a candidate. However, it also provides additional assurance that as President he will focus on serving the nation's interests rather than enhancing and perpetuating his own position."

Nevertheless, the major uncertainty about his presidency remains whether his health will permit him to govern energetically enough, and long enough, to bring about fundamental, enduring change in the government and political systems, he said.

In short, Baker said the election of Abdurrahman may well turn out to be a classic moment in Indonesian political history -- a surprise outcome that has given the country the right leader, with the right combination of qualities, at a time when those qualities are sorely needed.

Harold Crouch of the Australian National University said, "I really thought that Abdurrahman would have pulled out in favor of Megawati."

Crouch described Abdurrahman as unpredictable and interesting. And he would not indulge in corruption, collusion and nepotism.

"Though whether he can deal with corruption, collusion, nepotism is another thing."

Whatever he would do, Crouch said, it would be different from what Habibie had done. Crouch's concern was his inclination to be erratic, which could cause continuous uncertainty in the political configuration of the country.

What Damien Kingsbury, the executive director of Monash Asia Institute, saw as advantageous was that Abdurrahman would be able to bring together an alliance of Islamic and reformist groups, such as the United Development Party (PPP) and the reformist faction of Golkar and PDI Perjuangan.

"Another leader would have been more divisive," said Kingsbury.

However, Kingsbury had some reservations about how quickly Abdurrahman shifted positions lately.

This, he said, might have a destabilizing effect in the future political configuration.

Kingsbury was also concerned about how Megawati's supporters would react to such a close defeat.

As for how stable the future government would be, Kingsbury believed it would depend on who Abdurrahman would appoint in his Cabinet.

Of no less importance, he said, was the person who would be the Indonesian Military chief.

"However, I believe Abdurrahman is a good consensus candidate. And that is a good thing," Kingsbury concluded.

Bob Lowry of the Australian Defense Academy in Canberra and author of The Armed Forces of Indonesia, also pointed to the fact that Abdurrahman was a democrat. "He's a reformist. Not one of the old guards," he said.

However, Lowry suspected that Abdurrahman may have done deals with some of the "old guards".

"It is interesting that Golkar did not run their candidate," he said. Lowry believed that the future government had an enormous challenge.

"They need to do a complete overhaul of the whole system. Reestablish the rule of law, review defense policy, review internal policy, promote economic growth and political stability. And they have to show some results pretty quickly. They must learn from the Pakistan lesson, where the military were driven to take over power because the civilian government had made such a mess of it." (hbk)