Indonesian financial crisis
The overload of opinions, comment and criticisms from sources both inside and outside Indonesia concerning the uncontrolled nosedive of the rupiah, can be summarized simply and considered logically rather than emotionally. Whether or not the "fundamentals" of the Indonesian economy remain sound or not, does not impact on the situation or any solution.
As has been stated many times, this is a crisis of "confidence" and such crisis occur regularly all over the world. We Brits and the pound sterling have often been victims, the most noteworthy episode being in 1992 when the infamous George Soros made 1.5 billion pounds sterling in one day by speculating on the pound. He was able to do this because our government of the time had led us straight into the crisis, which everyone in UK knew was coming, except the government. It has been said that the massive funds available to groups as large as Soros and his backers' co-investors, enable them to move markets, which of course is true, but let's not forget, had our government and the Bank of England used our reserves to support the pound, Soros and others would have failed. Similarly, the Prime Minister of Malaysia is right to accuse the same speculators. However, responses in ASEAN countries, like Malaysia, such as unclear policies, unimplemented policies and hoping the nightmare will go away, etc., ensure the speculators make more money not less, and create the "crisis of confidence."
Witnessing the attack on the Thai baht, Indonesia could have assumed that this was unlikely to happen to the rupiah, except that for the last five years, conglomerates have been insidiously and continuously borrowing massive amounts of dollars. The Indonesian government can hardly be criticized for this, as, for most of that period, such borrowings were illegal. We have seen the consequence since August -- a continuing mad scramble to dump the rupiah to buy dollars to service their loans, creating an enormous demand and battering the rupiah into submission.
Inefficiency, corruption and collusion, are for others to comment on, but, as a layman, I see such factors as having little impact on what has happened, as the strength of the country, its historic performance, and its sheer potential dwarf the likes of Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines.
Over the years we Brits have had sets of conditions imposed by the IMF, and have rescued ourselves -- this will only happen here if the country follows the advice of Wimar Witoelar, who, in a well crafted article in The Jakarta Post (Oct. 11, 1997), summarizes by saying "Don't repeat old habits after the IMF cure."
Whatever the outcome, Indonesia, like every country in the world linking to the dollar, will always, repeat always, be at the mercy of one single individual -- the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman -- whenever he speaks, world markets move one way or another, mostly down, and therefore "crisis of confidence" are a permanent danger.
For those here still with money to invest, whether in this country (surely a great opportunity now to buy shares here?) or worldwide, the wisdom lies in remembering that financial markets move in cycles, dictated primarily by interest rates. The USA and European low interest rates currently look set to remain or go even lower still, and, with bank deposits providing meager returns, investors there prefer stocks and bonds, which causes the prices to rise. In Indonesia now, we have the reverse situation -- bank deposit rates remain astronomically high, stocks and bonds conversely ridiculously low -- surely Indonesia now offers some of the best opportunities in the world -- place your money in short term, very high interest deposits, and, as the interest rates start to drop in the near future, buy shares in the "blue chips" here, as difficult times like this are, almost without exception, followed by strong rallies.
BILL GUERIN
Jakarta