Indonesian election still far from decided

William J. Furney, Journalist, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

Two years down, one to go. Will Indonesia's first direct presidential election next year see the end of the administration of President Megawati Soekarnoputri?

Though she has focused on the key issues facing -- and threatening -- the nation, Megawati has been largely ineffectual in office.

Despite overwhelming support for Jakarta's massive military offensive to wipe out a decades-long rebellion in Aceh, and an infinitely more robust economy than what was handed to her, the next 12 months will not be easy for her.

For one thing, her popularity has taken a hammering in recent months, with many non-partisan opinion polls showing a growing unease with her government. In one poll, just 7 percent of the 3,000 respondents in 13 provinces said they would choose Megawati as their leader come ballot time.

Many feel that, as with past administrations, the ruling elite today is simply out of touch.

Last week, the front pages of Indonesia's broadsheets carried pictures of demonstrators torching giant photographs of Megawati. They were unhappy with her apparent backing, and the resultant success, of an official from a National Awakening Party-military- police coalition, at the expense of a candidate from her own party, the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-Perjuangan), in a provincial election.

Megawati has also been criticized for prosecuting and jailing peaceful activists who burned or stamped on photographs of her, and for taking to court a newspaper editor for headlines that were deemed offensive.

However, who is lining up to replace her? For one, former president Abdurrahman Wahid. Still miffed at his ouster, the ailing Muslim cleric, revered by many in Indonesia, says he is making a comeback.

The unlikely name of Gen. Wiranto, chief of the Indonesian military during the murderous days of East Timor's independence vote, has also been put forward. Once tipped for the presidency, his star waned with allegations of military-backed militia violence in the former Indonesian province.

The charismatic Yogyakarta Governor Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, may also run. Though revered in the ancient city, it remains to be seen if he has much pull beyond.

Then there is Indonesia's most prominent convict: Akbar Tandjung, Speaker of Parliament and leader of former president Soeharto's old party, Golkar. The fact that he was found guilty last year of mishandling millions of dollars in state funds does not seem to have dampened his ambitions.

There is also the down-to-earth Amien Rais, speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly, who on past occasions has declared his desire to be president.

Megawati once stood for many things, chief among them freedom from oppression and willingness to battle for ordinary folk. Speak to people in the street now and their once-adoring tones have taken on a harshly critical stance. "Reformasi is dead," they say.

Whoever runs for the presidency, it will be an uphill battle. There are many forces at work in this fractious land. As in the Javanese wayang shadow puppetry, they pull and maneuver figures, often in a Machiavellian fashion, this way and that.

People think President Megawati has failed to stem corruption, which some observers see as worse now than during Soeharto's tenure. Only this week has she hit out at corruption, warning that those engaged in illicit activity must "stop".

Meanwhile, most of those edging their way into the presidential race have thus far failed to proffer any sort of credible platform, preferring instead to trade on their egos and connections.

In these circumstances, President Megawati cannot be discounted, for she has not only succeeded in stabilizing the country but is also attempting to battle its deep-rooted social ills.

If the current administration hones in on vital issues, such as KKN -- the Indonesian acronym for all-pervasive corruption, collusion and nepotism -- it will score points at the ballot box. If not, the people, already fed up from years of top-heavy mismanagement, theft and neglect, will vote for someone else.