Indonesia unwilling to discuss oil quota

JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia, the only Asian member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), does not want to discuss the oil production quota during the organization's upcoming ministerial meeting, a minister says.

"We are hoping that the OPEC meeting will not discuss the issue of quota," Minister of Mines And Energy I.B. Sudjana told reporters before attending a monthly cabinet meeting on the economy yesterday.

The minister, who did not specify when the planned meeting will take place, also said that OPEC members should be consistent with the decisions made during the last meeting in Bali in November.

In Bali, the 12 OPEC members agreed to maintain the crude oil output ceiling at 24.52 million barrels per day.

In a related development, oil expert and former OPEC secretary-general Subroto said during a seminar yesterday that the oil grouping could potentially benefit from a projected global oil shortage in early next century.

"In 2010, OPEC is projected to supply 44.86 million barrels per day or 56 percent of the global demand of 79.89 million barrels per day," said Subroto, who is also a former minister of mines and energy and a former OPEC president.

At present, according to Subroto, 77 percent of the world's oil reserves are held by OPEC members, which produced only 34 percent of the world demand of 65.89 million barrels per day in 1994.

Subroto also said that in order to meet the 2010 projection, OPEC countries must within the next 15 years increase their production capacity to 49 million barrels per day from the 28.75 million at present, including the production capacity of Iraq, whose exports are embargoed by a sanction of the United Nations.

"The question is whether OPEC can do this," said Subroto, who emphasized his concern on the oil grouping's financial prowess.

By the year 2000, the organization will need US$660 billion to finance all activities required to meet the projection, he said.

Subroto said that Indonesia, however, will not be able to enjoy the forecasted global oil shortage since it will no longer be a net oil exporter in 2005.

Indonesian officials have said that the country is expected to become a net oil importer within the next 20 years. (hdj)