Indonesia trapped in gray zone

Indonesia trapped in gray zone

Bara Hasibuan, Political Analysts, Jakarta

After four years of the reform era following the fall of
Soeharto from power, Indonesia now deserves to be categorized as
one of the countries trapped in a politically gray zone. Such a
situation must prompt us to analyze whether Indonesia is today
really in a political transition heading toward a consolidation
of democracy or at a standstill without making significant
progress.

This view refers to countries that are often assumed to be in
a political transition. Although at a certain level they show
democratic attributes and procedures like political and press
freedom, routine and clean general elections and independent and
strong civil society, essentially they still face severe erosion
in political life. Their public institutions are weak and
corrupt.

Public officials often abuse their authority and ignore the
public interest in the formal political process. People's
confidence in those institutions is low. With such
characteristics, countries in the gray zone have not made
significant progress and, therefore, cannot be assumed to be on
the way to consolidated democracy.

However, the possibility that they will be back under an
authoritarian power is small as democracy is the only promising
alternative. Moreover, military institutions in those countries
are generally still weak and do not have enough strength to
retrieve power, for instance, by launching a coup. In brief,
those countries have entered the gray zone, have remained at a
standstill and are trapped between authoritarianism and
democracy.

According to Thomas Carothers, a researcher at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, countries in the gray zone
manifest the "feckless pluralism syndrome", meaning they are
democratic only in appearance, as the political quality of life
in those countries is very low.

The political elite and political parties in those countries
are believed to be corrupt and mindful only of their own
interests. They ignore the fate of the people and the country.
Corruption has become more widespread and endemic among the
political elite, political parties, the executive and
legislators.

The public still has confidence in democracy, but is
disappointed with and has no more confidence in the political
elite, political parties and other public institutions. It has
seen politics as a dirty and rotten thing, which is dominated by
a small number of figures who ignore the fate of the nation.

Based on people's consensus on a reform process that has been
running for four years, Indonesia has shown the feckless
pluralism syndrome and is trapped in the gray zone.

Indonesia, with its formal political processes like the
general election, press freedom, political freedom and strong
civil society, is a democratic country in appearance only because
of the poor democratic life in the country.

The political elite in Megawati Soekarnoputri's administration
and the House of Representatives (DPR) have compromised with the
pro-status quo group and therefore failed to take firm steps in
carrying out the reform agenda.

There are several examples.

First, the formation of a special committee on Bulog (State
Logistics Agency) nonbudgetary funds is under the threat of
failure because of political bargaining and lack of attention to
law enforcement and the eradication of corruption.

Second, legal sanctions against errant tycoons and generals
allegedly responsible for human rights violations in the past
have not run smoothly.

Third, reform in the Indonesian Military (TNI) has been very
slow, as civilian politicians still involve TNI members in their
political bargaining.

Nevertheless, the possibility that Indonesia will fall again
into the trap of authoritarianism seems to be small. The public
apparently still feels life's traumas as they were under the
Soeharto regime, which was corrupt and full of human rights
violations.

The TNI is today undergoing change and is still in the public
spotlight over a number of human rights violation cases, which
have rendered the institution incapable of recovering its
authority.

The possibility of the emergence of a strong man like Soeharto
is small. Thus, we have to realize that the nation is trapped in
the gray zone and at a standstill, instead of undergoing a
transition to consolidated democracy.

But the nation still has the opportunity to escape from the
gray zone. To that end, it is necessary for political leaders to
take concrete as well as symbolic political measures, especially
in connection with law enforcement.

Thus, the only solution is waiting for the emergence of a new
political generation, which may not occur until 2004. But it is
unpredictable. So the public must be patient.