Indonesia to face political vacuum in future: Expert

Indonesia to face political vacuum in future: Expert

By Santi WE Soekanto

JAKARTA (JP): A prominent American expert on Indonesia warns
against a "great vacuum" and pervasive uncertainty in the country
if President Soeharto steps down from power.

R. William Liddle, a professor of political science at Ohio
State University, said yesterday that Indonesia is ill-prepared
for a change in national leadership.

He said the current political situation which has deprived the
Indonesian public of experience with democracy and managing
differences of opinions has led to this lack of preparation.

Liddle attributed the situation to the political system in
which power is heavily concentrated in a few hands.

Acknowledging that the current administration deserves praise
for the nation's impressive economic development, he expressed
concern that things might go downhill when Soeharto no longer
runs the country.

The question of whether Soeharto will run for a seventh term
as president is not as important as whether the current
"political stability" will prevail, he said.

"I think there will be a great vacuum in the political
system," he said in a discussion at The Jakarta Post.

"I'm afraid for Indonesia's future because it's not yet
trained (in democracy)... so it'll probably be better if
President Soeharto is re-elected for another term," said Liddle,
who speaks the Indonesian language fluently.

Liddle said there are other important things for the public to
discuss in addition to the issue of whether or not there will be
a change in national leadership in 1998.

Potential conflicts arising from the interplay between
religions and politics, the middle and working classes, and
regional concern, as opposed to central government policies, need
to be examined in order to better equip the nation deal with the
future, he said. "These factors are more important, and not
whether Soeharto will remain in office for another 10 years."

Liddle attributed the potential for uncertainty and a power
vacuum to the fact that President Soeharto has been the single
dominant political player in the country for the last 30 years.
"All this time he has been in control of the whole system."

"It's like Indonesia is back to the 1940s or 1950s ... It's no
longer colonized, but its people are as politically untrained as
it was during the colonial period," he said.

Liddle blamed the condition which exists today on what he
termed "quasi" political institutions -- ranging from the ruling
Golkar and the political parties to the people's representative
bodies which were established in less than democratic ways.

The claims by senior government officials that succession of
national leadership will proceed smoothly given the established
mechanism, constitute a disguise for the fact that the real power
has been centralized in a few hands, he pointed out.

He also spoke of measures to control the various groups in
society, which have the potential to raise dissenting voices,
such as the minority Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI).

He said the government's campaign for electoral reforms, and
the possible changing of the current general election system,
actually serves as a warning to the two minority parties, PDI and
the United Development Party (PPP), that they could lose out in
future general elections.

However, he placed great hope on a number of social
institutions, including PDI and the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) Moslem
organization. The organizations led by controversial people are
seen as capable of providing the dynamics that the current
political condition lacks.

Although acknowledging that he has no recipe whatsoever with
which to advise Indonesians on how best to avert the uncertainty,
he did suggest that it would be better for the country to take
moderate approaches.

Concerning the influence of religion, he suggested that it
would be better if moderate Moslem communities, led by figures
such as thinker and writer Nurcholish Madjid, play greater roles
than "the militant Moslems" now emerging on university campuses.

"What I'm afraid of is if the country grows to become even
more authoritarian (after Soeharto)," he said.