Indonesia now a nation on autopilot

There is one last opportunity as the crisis hits rock bottom, writes analyst Jusuf Wanandi of the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia is now on autopilot, with nobody really in charge. Things are so messy because there is no leadership. Many problems remain unresolved: Aceh, Maluku, West Papua, Central Kalimantan, decentralization and regional autonomy, professionalism and civilian control of the Army, the economy, etc., etc.

The only thing that balances the vacuum of leadership is the resilience and patience of the Indonesian people. However, that has started to burst at the seams, as indicated by regional and local conflicts across the archipelago.

First, President Abdurrahman Wahid is seen as incompetent. He has compounded the crisis by making the legislature and the other political parties his enemies. He is supposed to be our chief executive, leading the nation out of its multi-layered crisis.

The legislature and other political leaders are being quite irresponsible, and only think of how to bring him down. Nobody among them thinks about the interests of the nation as a whole. The danger is that the economy is going to give in and go into a downward spiral that risks going completely out of control.

And with the economy in another crisis, the political situation may also go out of control, especially if the people become desperate. Since there is almost no authority, they could take the law into their own hands, and Indonesia could fall into total anarchy. If this situation continues, there is nobody left who can save Indonesia from becoming a failed state. That is why a high sense of urgency is now needed among the political elite.

Second, if Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri is everybody's choice, as it appears to be, she should be elected as soon as the constitutional process allows that to happen. Ideally, Abdurrahman should see the light and retire, and in that way save his respectability allowing him to still act and be accepted as a social and spiritual leader.

However, since he is not willing to accept this idea, he should give the powers of governance to Megawati and remain as head of state. This arrangement should be laid down in a decree of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) so that it is acceptable for Megawati.

If this arrangement is also unacceptable to either or both of them, then an MPR special session should decide on a vote of no confidence in Abdurrahman and, if that is supported, the election of Megawati as the next president. As this step could complicate the situation it should only be taken as a last resort.

It should be made clear to Abdurrahman's followers in Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) that this step is necessary for the sake of the nation, and is, therefore, also in the NU's interests.

If the NU is not clear, it could create havoc in East Java, the NU's stronghold, and induce acts of retaliation in other parts of Indonesia against them. An anarchic situation in the whole country could result from this.

Anyhow, Megawati has to prepare herself to take up the leadership. This means setting priorities for the new government. She should bring together individuals who can work as a team that is capable, as well as credible, in the eyes of the political elite and public.

This means that she should reach out to others outside her own close entourage. This will not be easy for her, but will be necessary if she wants to get the right personalities in the Cabinet and other important government agencies. Otherwise she might not be able to overcome the crisis. She might also face the same fate as Abdurrahman.

Some representatives of the coalition supporting her should of course be included. But the economic team especially should be composed of able personalities who can work together as a team. Megawati's priorities are obvious, namely: the economic crisis; a just solution to regional conflicts, especially those in Aceh and West Papua; gradual implementation of regional autonomy; professionalism and democratic control of the Armed Forces; maintenance of law and order to bring about peace and stability; and the implementation of the rule of law.

For all of this to happen, and if accepted by Megawati, the political and social leaders should give their unqualified support to her -- because the crisis is at its deepest, and this is the last chance for Indonesia to survive as one unitary state.

For once the leaders must place the interests of the nation at heart and do the right thing.