Indonesia now a nation on autopilot

Indonesia now a nation on autopilot

There is one last opportunity as the crisis hits rock bottom,
writes analyst Jusuf Wanandi of the Jakarta-based Centre for
Strategic and International Studies.

JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia is now on autopilot, with nobody
really in charge. Things are so messy because there is no
leadership. Many problems remain unresolved: Aceh, Maluku, West
Papua, Central Kalimantan, decentralization and regional
autonomy, professionalism and civilian control of the Army, the
economy, etc., etc.

The only thing that balances the vacuum of leadership is the
resilience and patience of the Indonesian people. However, that
has started to burst at the seams, as indicated by regional and
local conflicts across the archipelago.

First, President Abdurrahman Wahid is seen as incompetent. He
has compounded the crisis by making the legislature and the other
political parties his enemies. He is supposed to be our chief
executive, leading the nation out of its multi-layered crisis.

The legislature and other political leaders are being quite
irresponsible, and only think of how to bring him down. Nobody
among them thinks about the interests of the nation as a whole.
The danger is that the economy is going to give in and go into a
downward spiral that risks going completely out of control.

And with the economy in another crisis, the political
situation may also go out of control, especially if the people
become desperate. Since there is almost no authority, they could
take the law into their own hands, and Indonesia could fall into
total anarchy. If this situation continues, there is nobody left
who can save Indonesia from becoming a failed state. That is why
a high sense of urgency is now needed among the political elite.

Second, if Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri is
everybody's choice, as it appears to be, she should be elected as
soon as the constitutional process allows that to happen.
Ideally, Abdurrahman should see the light and retire, and in that
way save his respectability allowing him to still act and be
accepted as a social and spiritual leader.

However, since he is not willing to accept this idea, he
should give the powers of governance to Megawati and remain as
head of state. This arrangement should be laid down in a decree
of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) so that it is
acceptable for Megawati.

If this arrangement is also unacceptable to either or both of
them, then an MPR special session should decide on a vote of no
confidence in Abdurrahman and, if that is supported, the election
of Megawati as the next president. As this step could complicate
the situation it should only be taken as a last resort.

It should be made clear to Abdurrahman's followers in
Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) that this step is necessary for the sake of
the nation, and is, therefore, also in the NU's interests.

If the NU is not clear, it could create havoc in East Java,
the NU's stronghold, and induce acts of retaliation in other
parts of Indonesia against them. An anarchic situation in the
whole country could result from this.

Anyhow, Megawati has to prepare herself to take up the
leadership. This means setting priorities for the new government.
She should bring together individuals who can work as a team that
is capable, as well as credible, in the eyes of the political
elite and public.

This means that she should reach out to others outside her own
close entourage. This will not be easy for her, but will be
necessary if she wants to get the right personalities in the
Cabinet and other important government agencies. Otherwise she
might not be able to overcome the crisis. She might also face the
same fate as Abdurrahman.

Some representatives of the coalition supporting her should of
course be included. But the economic team especially should be
composed of able personalities who can work together as a team.
Megawati's priorities are obvious, namely: the economic crisis; a
just solution to regional conflicts, especially those in Aceh and
West Papua; gradual implementation of regional autonomy;
professionalism and democratic control of the Armed Forces;
maintenance of law and order to bring about peace and stability;
and the implementation of the rule of law.

For all of this to happen, and if accepted by Megawati, the
political and social leaders should give their unqualified
support to her -- because the crisis is at its deepest, and this
is the last chance for Indonesia to survive as one unitary state.

For once the leaders must place the interests of the nation at
heart and do the right thing.