Indonesia has to put its house in order to answer E. Asia

By Jusuf Wanandi

JAKARTA (JP): The end of the Cold War coincided with the acceleration of the globalization process. These two critical developments at the global level have changed our era in a dramatic way, making a significant impact on the global, regional and national levels.

The present situation might be called a period of interregnums because changes continue to take place and the fact that there is only one superpower, which might not last forever. As an unwilling and relaxed superpower, the United States will not stay a superpower for too long.

In East Asia there is the immediate problem of China's ascendancy as a regional and global power. At this stage it cannot compete with the United States but in the future it might become the most important strategic problem for America and the region.

On the one hand, China has ambitions to become again the great power in the region. Projections about its capabilities in the future suggest that it could become the global power it once was. The perennial problem of absorbing a new great power is a problem for the region and for the world.

On the other hand it has to be recognized that there exists a certain contradiction in its domestic challenges and its external capabilities and ambitions.

Domestic instability could become an impediment to its ambitions in the future if it cannot overcome it. This is a greater challenge to the region than when it succeeds.

There is as yet no regional structure and mechanism to absorb China. Although feeble efforts have been made, which include the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and even the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), at this stage the United States is the only other great power that can act as a balancer and arbiter to China's ambitions, which is particularly critical.

The immediate problem in China-U.S. relations is that of Taiwan. A military conflict between the United States and China will leave a debilitating impact on the region's stability and growth because China will be for a long time a negative factor in the region and its relations with the United States will be a source of instability for the region.

This will also be a dramatic turn for the whole of East Asia's well-being, which is dependent on peace and stability. Stability at present is partly due to a positive U.S. military presence, mainly through its alliances, especially with Japan. That is why a peaceful solution to the Taiwan problem is in everybody's interests. In maintaining regional stability every country in the region should do their part and should not depend on the United States only.

Of course, there are other regional strategic issues, such as the "normalization" of Japan's security policies in the region, including changing its constitutions, particularly Article 9. This normalization can be accelerated if the Korean Peninsula is stabilized. This can be achieved if the nonproliferation threat from the North is overcome, and cooperation can be established between the two parts, or if reunification can happen in the next decade.

This will also depend on how China's ambitions are going to develop, the credibility of the U.S. alliance and how its presence in the region will be maintained.

Japan has to prepare for some serious changes in its security policies in the future. How this is going to be implemented is important.

Another factor is developments in the South Asian subcontinent, which has become the most serious nonproliferation problem for that region, but which holds a critical impact on East Asia as well.

The problems posed by domestic challenges faced by countries in Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia, are less critical in strict global strategic terms. However, an implosion of Indonesia, or if it becomes a failed state, will have regional repercussions.

This will not only make an impact on Southeast Asia or ASEAN, but will be a serious problem for the whole region because the most important sea lanes for trade and energy, especially for Japan and Northeast Asia, are through Indonesia.

These new strategic developments are closely linked to those that arose from the globalization process. Globalization has accelerated due to the developments in information technology and transportation, and has created a whole range of interdependencies, especially in financial services, trade and transportation.

These developments have also made an impact on the traditional manufacturing sectors of the economy by raising productivity, overcoming the problems of heavy inventories and promoting the need for expeditious transactions.

Globalization has opened up national economies everywhere, and the impact of this is not confined to the economic field alone, but penetrates into the political, social and cultural fields as well.

It has been a revolution that is going to stay with us, and will bring with it a host of new problems and implications.

Social injustice is one of the most critical issues to be faced in response to globalization. It is a problem at the national level, even in developed nations, but more acutely in developing countries. It is also an issue between nations.

That is one of the main reasons why the World Trade Organization meeting in Seattle failed. The developing nations felt that they were being left out and their interests were not being considered.

The opening up of economies without establishing adequate institutions and rules, and without educating and preparing the public, will create a serious backlash toward globalization in developing countries. This is especially true if the political system is not flexible enough.

Last but not least is the change of values and the possibility of creating a dichotomy in society. One part of society is able to face and benefit from globalization, adopts new values and becomes richer, while another part, and most likely the poor and those with inadequate education and training, will be left behind to cling to their closed traditional values.

New East Asian regionalism is critically important for the region to be able to cope with these new challenges, namely globalization, and the new strategic environment. With the end of the Cold War, allies are less important to the United States, and the country may think that it can assert its values (human rights, capitalism and democracy) to the world.

A new strategic environment is taking place in East Asia, where instability and uncertainty are reality.

Since ASEAN is too small and in a deep crisis, it cannot be the regional entity to cope with these global and regional challenges.

Indonesia and ASEAN need a new regional entity where together they can face their domestic and external challenges. ASEAN is still important as the first line of cooperation. A cohesive ASEAN could better deal with the bigger Asian countries of Japan, China and a reunified Korea.

President Abdurrahman Wahid's instincts were right about the fundamentals of ASEAN solidarity, but he should also recognize that ASEAN cannot do the job alone and needs a bigger entity.

APEC is vital because this forum can prevent a divide from developing with the United States. Without America's role in the immediate future, the region could turn into one of tension and confrontation. These overlapping regional entities, ASEAN, East Asia and APEC, have been created to enable the regional countries to effectively deal with the new strategic shifts and globalization. Indonesia only gains from this development.

However, it has to get its own house in order first before it can participate fully in the new regional community of East Asia.

The writer is a member of the Board of Directors at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).