Indonesia has fresh chance with democracy

Indonesia has fresh chance with democracy

Greg Barton, Jakarta

The quiet nature of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's emphatic
victory speaks of the nature of the challenges and opportunities
facing Indonesia's new president. There is little antipathy but
considerable ambivalence felt towards Susilo. Clearly his better
than expected performance suggests that in the final week many
undecided voters decided to get behind him and give him a chance.
But the relatively high level of informal votes suggests that
many Indonesians feel much more positive about democracy itself
than they do about the candidates that it has so far produced.

Susilo is clearly a likable individual and there is little
doubt about his character and integrity. And yet the rise and
rise of Susilo has been met with profound ambivalence amongst
some of the most progressive sections of Indonesian society.

To a considerable extent this uncertainty about Susilo stems
from his military background and his connections with the
Soeharto New Order regime. The fact that he does not yet have
clear support in parliament further reinforces the perception of
him as a nice guy but a rather wooden and indecisive leader
vulnerable to being controlled by the former regime elements that
have flocked to his side.

Had Susilo emerged as a presidential candidate several years
ago in more turbulent times, or had his margin of victory on
Monday been much less substantial, there would be good grounds
for doubting his ability to manage one of the modern world's most
difficult political assignments. But success in politics is very
much a matter of timing and this week Susilo, and arguably the
nation of Indonesia as a whole, appears to have gotten lucky.

There is no doubt that the nation and its new president faces
a plethora of challenges and that there are many ways for things
to go wrong but there are, nevertheless, at least half a dozen
reasons for believing that Susilo might just succeed:

Firstly, the quiet support for democracy evident in this
year's three peaceful and successful elections speaks of a
significant degree of social maturity in Indonesia. The
remarkable absence of violence and unrest puts Indonesia at the
top of this year's very large class of developing nations going
to the polls and underscores the innate common sense of ordinary
Indonesians.

Secondly, the incumbent president and her administration,
together with the people of Indonesia, deserve credit for having
achieved a degree of social and economic stability that even
merciless terrorists with bombs have been unable to disrupt.
Susilo is not inheriting an ungovernable nation nor is he taking
charge of a hopeless economy.

Nevertheless, Susilo's steady rise in popularity over the last
six months, and the sharp swing towards him in recent days,
speaks of a widely held desire for change. Few people thought ill
of Megawati but few were convinced that she was capable of
delivering real change.

The fact that she lifted her public relations efforts several
notches in recent months was not enough to offset the impression
that her's was a "do nothing" presidency. This impression was
further reinforced by her failure to introduce new policies or
new personalities since her party's shocking performance in
April's parliamentary elections.

When Megawati first succeeded Abdurrahman Wahid as president
in July 2001 her very inertness was seen as her greatest asset.
She was welcomed by many precisely because, unlike her idealistic
but bellicose predecessor, she was not trying to change
everything and consequently was not going to draw fire from all
sides.

The stability that approach brought was welcome, particular to
the markets, but ultimately it was found wanting. Difficult
though it be Indonesia needs change. Reform is necessary for its
own sake in many areas of national life but it is also essential
if Indonesia is to rebuild the confidence of investors and regain
the level of economic growth necessary to meet the basic demands
of its fast-growing population.

It is Susilo's good fortune to appear on the stage at time
when the nation is longing for change, after three year's of
Megawati's administration, and yet is realistic and reasonable
about what is possible; in sharp contrast to the unreasonable
expectations of five years ago at the outset of the Wahid
presidency. Quiet realism about what democracy can reasonably be
expected to deliver has replaced extravagant romanticism.

The new president's political base is further consolidated by
the strong mandate achieved by his twenty percent margin of
victory. This clear display of public support for his presidency
should go a long way to enabling him to consolidate support in
the legislature.

The nature of the pre-poll alliance between Golkar party,
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) and United
Development Party (PPP), its failure to sway voters and the
subsequent magnitude of Susilo's victory makes it inevitable,
whatever party chairmen might care to claim, that the question of
political alliances is going to have to be revisited. Securing
reliable support in the legislature, however, remains Susilo's
greatest challenge.

Sixthly, and finally, Susilo's character and integrity
represent his greatest assets. If he can remain true to his
principles in the midst of the demanding arena of politics and
communicate that clearly he will ultimately be rewarded with a
degree of political influence unachievable by the horse-traders
and slick operators who for so long have called the shots in
Indonesian politics and whom are now maneuvering to block him in
the legislature.

Indonesia and its people deserve good leadership. If the new
president realizes his potential and meets or exceeds the modest
expectations of his people then ambivalence will quickly be
replaced with firm support and "muddling through" will give way
to real progress.

Dr Greg Barton is a Senior Lecturer in Politics at Deakin
University. His book, Indonesia's Struggle: Jemaah Islamiyah and
the soul of Islam was published by UNSW Press last week.