Indonesia has fresh chance with democracy

Greg Barton, Jakarta

The quiet nature of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's emphatic victory speaks of the nature of the challenges and opportunities facing Indonesia's new president. There is little antipathy but considerable ambivalence felt towards Susilo. Clearly his better than expected performance suggests that in the final week many undecided voters decided to get behind him and give him a chance. But the relatively high level of informal votes suggests that many Indonesians feel much more positive about democracy itself than they do about the candidates that it has so far produced.

Susilo is clearly a likable individual and there is little doubt about his character and integrity. And yet the rise and rise of Susilo has been met with profound ambivalence amongst some of the most progressive sections of Indonesian society.

To a considerable extent this uncertainty about Susilo stems from his military background and his connections with the Soeharto New Order regime. The fact that he does not yet have clear support in parliament further reinforces the perception of him as a nice guy but a rather wooden and indecisive leader vulnerable to being controlled by the former regime elements that have flocked to his side.

Had Susilo emerged as a presidential candidate several years ago in more turbulent times, or had his margin of victory on Monday been much less substantial, there would be good grounds for doubting his ability to manage one of the modern world's most difficult political assignments. But success in politics is very much a matter of timing and this week Susilo, and arguably the nation of Indonesia as a whole, appears to have gotten lucky.

There is no doubt that the nation and its new president faces a plethora of challenges and that there are many ways for things to go wrong but there are, nevertheless, at least half a dozen reasons for believing that Susilo might just succeed:

Firstly, the quiet support for democracy evident in this year's three peaceful and successful elections speaks of a significant degree of social maturity in Indonesia. The remarkable absence of violence and unrest puts Indonesia at the top of this year's very large class of developing nations going to the polls and underscores the innate common sense of ordinary Indonesians.

Secondly, the incumbent president and her administration, together with the people of Indonesia, deserve credit for having achieved a degree of social and economic stability that even merciless terrorists with bombs have been unable to disrupt. Susilo is not inheriting an ungovernable nation nor is he taking charge of a hopeless economy.

Nevertheless, Susilo's steady rise in popularity over the last six months, and the sharp swing towards him in recent days, speaks of a widely held desire for change. Few people thought ill of Megawati but few were convinced that she was capable of delivering real change.

The fact that she lifted her public relations efforts several notches in recent months was not enough to offset the impression that her's was a "do nothing" presidency. This impression was further reinforced by her failure to introduce new policies or new personalities since her party's shocking performance in April's parliamentary elections.

When Megawati first succeeded Abdurrahman Wahid as president in July 2001 her very inertness was seen as her greatest asset. She was welcomed by many precisely because, unlike her idealistic but bellicose predecessor, she was not trying to change everything and consequently was not going to draw fire from all sides.

The stability that approach brought was welcome, particular to the markets, but ultimately it was found wanting. Difficult though it be Indonesia needs change. Reform is necessary for its own sake in many areas of national life but it is also essential if Indonesia is to rebuild the confidence of investors and regain the level of economic growth necessary to meet the basic demands of its fast-growing population.

It is Susilo's good fortune to appear on the stage at time when the nation is longing for change, after three year's of Megawati's administration, and yet is realistic and reasonable about what is possible; in sharp contrast to the unreasonable expectations of five years ago at the outset of the Wahid presidency. Quiet realism about what democracy can reasonably be expected to deliver has replaced extravagant romanticism.

The new president's political base is further consolidated by the strong mandate achieved by his twenty percent margin of victory. This clear display of public support for his presidency should go a long way to enabling him to consolidate support in the legislature.

The nature of the pre-poll alliance between Golkar party, Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) and United Development Party (PPP), its failure to sway voters and the subsequent magnitude of Susilo's victory makes it inevitable, whatever party chairmen might care to claim, that the question of political alliances is going to have to be revisited. Securing reliable support in the legislature, however, remains Susilo's greatest challenge.

Sixthly, and finally, Susilo's character and integrity represent his greatest assets. If he can remain true to his principles in the midst of the demanding arena of politics and communicate that clearly he will ultimately be rewarded with a degree of political influence unachievable by the horse-traders and slick operators who for so long have called the shots in Indonesian politics and whom are now maneuvering to block him in the legislature.

Indonesia and its people deserve good leadership. If the new president realizes his potential and meets or exceeds the modest expectations of his people then ambivalence will quickly be replaced with firm support and "muddling through" will give way to real progress.

Dr Greg Barton is a Senior Lecturer in Politics at Deakin University. His book, Indonesia's Struggle: Jemaah Islamiyah and the soul of Islam was published by UNSW Press last week.