Indonesia gets ready for major political shake-up

Peter Milne, Jakarta

As Indonesia is approaching its first-ever direct presidential election, a major shift is occurring in the country's political map.

However, it is one that many foreign and Indonesian observers, not to mention members of the Indonesian elite, seem to be having some trouble registering.

For the first time since the fall of President Soeharto in 1998, Indonesians will decide individually and in secret who -- from a choice of five candidates -- they believe should lead their country for the next five years.

All the signs are that the nominee of the new Democratic Party, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, is far ahead of his rivals in the race, including incumbent President Megawati Soekarnoputri.

This is a truly remarkable achievement when one considers that Susilo's party had never contested an election prior to April 2004, and that Susilo only declared himself a contender for the presidency in March of this year.

But despite Susilo's meteoric political rise, a surprising number of professional political observers and financial market analysts and fund managers seem convinced that Gen. (ret) Wiranto, the candidate of Golkar, the former ruling party during the Soeharto regime, could clinch the presidency in a second round of voting in September.

There could be several reasons for this apparent denial of the fundamental democratic and resulting political transformation that is taking place in Indonesia. Obviously, such a democratic process is a new experience for Indonesians, and observers are unsure of just how the electorate will react to such freedom of choice.

However, two other factors seem to play an important role.

First, in the recent past, opinion polls have often been exploited by political parties to enhance their own standing, and this has had the effect of destroying public confidence in the use of polls as a means of gauging public opinion.

Second, there is a commonly held assumption among professional observers and political players alike that the party machines behind the candidates (and their running mates) will somehow garner the support of the masses who voted for those respective parties in the legislative phase of the election back in April.

This, it is widely assumed, will be made possible through the use of "money politics", whereby funds from parties will boost support at the grassroots level in the days that remain before the vote.

While it is certainly valid that many opinion polls have been deliberately misused, or at the very least conducted with dubious methodologies, two institutions are conducting methodologically sound nationwide polls: The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (Ifes) and the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI). Not surprisingly, both seem to support each other's findings, tracking Susilo's progress from around the 20 percent level back in March up to a remarkable 40 percent in May.

In the latest survey conducted by Ifes on June 4 through June 9 and published last week, Susilo registered support of an impressive 45 percent.

The other assumptions, that the Indonesian electorate lacks sophistication and that the electoral ways-of-old still operate effectively and will largely determine voting patterns, are erroneous. This logic assumes that, for instance, Wiranto will garner almost all of the 22 percent of the electorate who voted for Golkar in April.

This logic then extends to the inclusion of a major slice of the National Awakening Party (PKB) vote of 11.6 percent, given that Wiranto's running-mate, Solahuddin Wahid, is a brother of former Indonesian president and founder of the PKB, Abdurrahman Wahid and that Abdurrachman has given his "unofficial" endorsement to Wiranto's campaign.

Either way, this view assumes that the majority of Indonesians are unable to make up their own minds or that they are susceptible to vote-buying. In the new democratic system that is now operating, both views are unfounded.

Nonetheless, they do help to explain why so many professional observers and members of the political elite in Indonesia are having such difficulty in accepting the magnitude of the political shift that is already well underway. Indonesian voters are ahead of the game.

If anything, the latest Ifes poll suggests that Susilo could come close to winning an outright victory on July 5. With support of around 45 percent, together with a pro-rata proportion of the as-yet undecided segment of the poll of 21 percent, this would give Susilo around 54 percent of the total vote.

Given that his support is fairly evenly spread on a national basis (another important criterion in measuring outright victory next week), while probably just too much of a stretch Susilo could be Indonesia's president-elect within two weeks.

If such an outcome were to come about, this would be a political and democratic feat of historic proportions. Since the latest Ifes poll was conducted in early June, there has probably been a bandwagon effect favoring Susilo in the following weeks.

This all comes at a time when Wiranto has continued to attract negative publicity regarding human rights violations, and Megawati continues her lackluster performance remaining relatively static in the polls.

Quietly, and with firm resolution, 154 million Indonesians are preparing to deliver one of the most important and decisive political decisions in their country's history.

Whether the choice of Indonesia's next president will be concluded in July, or in a second round in September, what seems clear is that Indonesians will vote for change. They have been disappointed by the leaders of the past five years, who have failed to make headway on reform.

If, as the polls suggest, Indonesians do vote resoundingly for Susilo, they will be voting for what he represents: A strong leader, but not a strongman, who brings with him a clean track record and a reputation for backing reform; someone who seems to be sincere in his intention to continue the process of transition in Indonesia, moving away from the patronage politics of the past towards professionalism, fairness and the rule of law; and, as a previous coordinating minister for security, someone who can improve security by ensuring that Indonesia's territorial integrity is maintained and that the scourges of terrorism and religious extremism are kept at bay.

Indonesians may remain somewhat over-optimistic in their expectations of what any president can achieve in five years. They have certainly been disappointed by the fruits of democracy so far in the reformasi era, but have learnt the lessons.

Now, given a direct choice in their future president, Indonesians will make a sound decision based on what is best for their country. This is the most that democracy can offer and Indonesians will use the opportunity to full effect -- to the surprise of those who doubt their wisdom.

The author is a freelance writer on Indonesian politics based in the UK.