Indonesia by 2000

Perhaps this letter will be seen as just another "naive" scribble, as at least one Jakarta Post reader feels we letter writers are accustomed to sending. Well, he is free to make his own conclusions, I suppose.

I wish to comment on predictions made about the future of Indonesia by an Australian-born writer 20 years ago. I refer to the book The Indonesian Tragedy by journalist Brian May. It was published in 1978, but seven years later (when I had just started reading serious English-language books), I remember a newly arrived expatriate who was trying to "understand" Indonesia by bringing this book from overseas.

Due to limited space it is impossible to cite at length from the book's contents, so I will simply quote passages from its dust jacket:

"After four years as a correspondent in Indonesia, Brian May became convinced that the nation's social/economic progress was blocked, perhaps permanently, by a strong cultural barrier.

"(The main tragedy) lies in the rulers' blind attempt to force a Western economic model on a backward and superstitious people, whose culture and psychology are unsuited to it.

"The concept of 'developing' countries is dismissed as a cruelly misleading euphemism. The much talked of economic 'takeoff' cannot take place in countries like Indonesia, where a bazaar mentality dominates commerce.

"(Indonesia's) population is likely to rise by the year 2000 to 280 million, by which time it will be unable to feed itself.

"The author demonstrates The Indonesian Tragedy by depicting the country as he experienced it from day to day. In developing his conclusion, Brian May draws on history..."

And so it goes. Blah, blah, blah by a self-styled expert on Indonesia. What is the reality? Nearing the 21st century, most economists would say that Indonesia is indeed ready for "takeoff", even if we do still have problems (just like any nation). Economic growth is around a healthy 7.5 percent every year. Our fairly successful family planning program has slowed population increase, and experts foresee a total of 219.2 million Indonesians by the year 2000, not 280 million.

The appearance of successful medium-sized businesses, and even a number of conglomerates, led by an increasingly skilled pool of executives, shows that whatever "bazaar mentality" there was is withering away.

Does anybody still use The Indonesian Tragedy as a serious reference book anymore? More within this present time, should we believe everything gloomy written about this country, or other developing countries for that matter?

FARID BASKORO

Jakarta