Indonesia anticipates East Timor exodus

Indonesia anticipates East Timor exodus

JAKARTA (JP): United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan will
decide on Monday whether local security concerns will enable the
East Timor self-determination vote to go ahead next month.

United Nations Mission in East Timor (UNAMET) spokesman Hiro
Ueki said in Dili that Kofi Annan was scheduled to announce
whether security conditions were conducive on Aug. 21 or Aug. 22,
or whether a third postponement of the direct ballot would be
necessary.

Ueki said UNAMET was likely to complete its progress review
over the weekend, with Annan taking into account the evaluation
as a key consideration for his decision on the ballot date.

Top UNAMET personnel, including police and civilian officials,
met on Friday morning to start drafting the report.

"In a way this kicks off our mid-point assessment of
registration as well as the security situation," Ueki said.

As the UNAMET security evaluation proceeded, reports of
renewed violence in the province emerged.

At least one person died on Thursday when the proindependence
militia group Falintil reportedly ambushed Besi Merah Putih (The
Red-and-White Iron) prointegration militia members in Libeloa
village, 30 kilometers west of Dili.

East Timor Police spokesman Capt. Widodo confirmed the report,
but did not identify the victim. He said Falintil members also
set fire to a government office in Venilale, about 100 kilometers
east of Dili.

The captain quoted villagers as reporting that they heard a
series of explosions before fire gutted the regency building.

The development coincided with a disclosure that Jakarta was
taking steps in anticipation of a possible mass exodus shortly
after next month's self-determination direct vote in East Timor.
The announcement was made on Thursday by Minister of
Transmigration Lt. Gen. Hendropriyono in Jakarta.

The minister predicted the number of refugees leaving the
troubled province, if the majority of East Timorese preferred
independence, would most likely be higher than the government's
previous estimation.

Hendropriyono said the government, especially his ministry,
was ready to provide new homes and land in several other
provinces for the refugees.

"I will not, however, disclose the location of their new
resettlement areas," the minister said.

He indicated however, that displaced people would most likely
be sent to West Kalimantan, Aceh, Riau, South Sulawesi and East
Nusa Tenggara. He added that the government had provided Rp 103
billion (US$14.7 million) to finance resettlement projects for
refugees, including potential East Timorese refugees.

Hendropriyono's analysis of a post-ballot East Timor scenario
contained remarkable similarities to a report purportedly signed
by Maj. Gen. (ret) H.R. Garnadito leaked to the Australian media
earlier this week.

Foreign media said the report, addressed to Coordinating
Minister for Political and Security Affairs Gen. (ret) Feisal
Tanjung, predicted that violence and chaos would erupt if
proindependence groups won the direct ballot. The report also
outlined plans to rescue civil servants and proautonomy
supporters.

"The evacuation routes must be planned and secured, possibly
by demolishing public facilities and other vital objects," the
report said.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Alatas described the document
as a forgery.

Separately, the deputy commander of a pro-Jakarta militia
group, Mahidi, threatened to boycott next month's vote if
Falintil did not surrender their weapons by Saturday. He said he
would ask other militias, such as the Red-and-White Iron and Lak
Saur, to join the boycott.

"If nothing happens by July 24 or July 25, we will boycott,"
Carvalho told AFP in his hometown of Ainaro.

"We don't want to accept the results of the popular
consultation if we boycott the popular consultation," the bearded
Carvalho said.

Jailed East Timorese independence leader Jose Alexandre
"Xanana" Gusmao told Golkar faction leaders on Friday the
Indonesian Military (TNI) was clearly siding with prointegration
militias.

The Falintil commander told deputy speaker Abdul Gafur during
a meeting at his detention house in Central Jakarta that the
government should withdraw all 12,000 TNI personnel from East
Timor.

"According to the New York agreement, the direct ballot will
be supervised by police and not by the military," Xanana said.
(prb/rms)