Indonesia anticipates East Timor exodus

JAKARTA (JP): United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan will decide on Monday whether local security concerns will enable the East Timor self-determination vote to go ahead next month.

United Nations Mission in East Timor (UNAMET) spokesman Hiro Ueki said in Dili that Kofi Annan was scheduled to announce whether security conditions were conducive on Aug. 21 or Aug. 22, or whether a third postponement of the direct ballot would be necessary.

Ueki said UNAMET was likely to complete its progress review over the weekend, with Annan taking into account the evaluation as a key consideration for his decision on the ballot date.

Top UNAMET personnel, including police and civilian officials, met on Friday morning to start drafting the report.

"In a way this kicks off our mid-point assessment of registration as well as the security situation," Ueki said.

As the UNAMET security evaluation proceeded, reports of renewed violence in the province emerged.

At least one person died on Thursday when the proindependence militia group Falintil reportedly ambushed Besi Merah Putih (The Red-and-White Iron) prointegration militia members in Libeloa village, 30 kilometers west of Dili.

East Timor Police spokesman Capt. Widodo confirmed the report, but did not identify the victim. He said Falintil members also set fire to a government office in Venilale, about 100 kilometers east of Dili.

The captain quoted villagers as reporting that they heard a series of explosions before fire gutted the regency building.

The development coincided with a disclosure that Jakarta was taking steps in anticipation of a possible mass exodus shortly after next month's self-determination direct vote in East Timor. The announcement was made on Thursday by Minister of Transmigration Lt. Gen. Hendropriyono in Jakarta.

The minister predicted the number of refugees leaving the troubled province, if the majority of East Timorese preferred independence, would most likely be higher than the government's previous estimation.

Hendropriyono said the government, especially his ministry, was ready to provide new homes and land in several other provinces for the refugees.

"I will not, however, disclose the location of their new resettlement areas," the minister said.

He indicated however, that displaced people would most likely be sent to West Kalimantan, Aceh, Riau, South Sulawesi and East Nusa Tenggara. He added that the government had provided Rp 103 billion (US$14.7 million) to finance resettlement projects for refugees, including potential East Timorese refugees.

Hendropriyono's analysis of a post-ballot East Timor scenario contained remarkable similarities to a report purportedly signed by Maj. Gen. (ret) H.R. Garnadito leaked to the Australian media earlier this week.

Foreign media said the report, addressed to Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Gen. (ret) Feisal Tanjung, predicted that violence and chaos would erupt if proindependence groups won the direct ballot. The report also outlined plans to rescue civil servants and proautonomy supporters.

"The evacuation routes must be planned and secured, possibly by demolishing public facilities and other vital objects," the report said.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Alatas described the document as a forgery.

Separately, the deputy commander of a pro-Jakarta militia group, Mahidi, threatened to boycott next month's vote if Falintil did not surrender their weapons by Saturday. He said he would ask other militias, such as the Red-and-White Iron and Lak Saur, to join the boycott.

"If nothing happens by July 24 or July 25, we will boycott," Carvalho told AFP in his hometown of Ainaro.

"We don't want to accept the results of the popular consultation if we boycott the popular consultation," the bearded Carvalho said.

Jailed East Timorese independence leader Jose Alexandre "Xanana" Gusmao told Golkar faction leaders on Friday the Indonesian Military (TNI) was clearly siding with prointegration militias.

The Falintil commander told deputy speaker Abdul Gafur during a meeting at his detention house in Central Jakarta that the government should withdraw all 12,000 TNI personnel from East Timor.

"According to the New York agreement, the direct ballot will be supervised by police and not by the military," Xanana said. (prb/rms)