Indonesia and China dance through highs, lows

I. Wibowo, Jakarta

Indonesia-China relations reached a romantic level, both in a metaphoric and a real sense when President Megawati danced with President Jiang Zemin. It was back in March 2002.

But the relations went sour as an Indonesia-based company, despite the dance, lost to an Australia-based company in winning the tender to sell LNG to Guangdong, China. Unexpectedly, though, the graph has taken a new upturn, after President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono assumed power in late 2004. Here are the highlights:

First, there was the visit of President Hu Jintao in April 2005 for the celebration of the 50th anniversary of Asia-Africa Conference.

Then there was the signing of the "Strategic Partnership" document between Indonesia and China (April 25, 2005).

Financial aid from China to build infrastructure as well as the agriculture and energy sectors is reportedly as much as US$20 billion (April 25, 2005).

Shortly thereafter came an agreement between Indonesia and China to develop guided short, medium and long-range rockets (May 17, 2005).

New regulations that will allow tourists from China to get visas on arrival were also set up, a sharp departure from previous policy (June 15, 2005).

Vice Premier Wu Yi then visited Jakarta to confirm China's commitment to boosting trade with Indonesia (June 29, 2005)

Later this month, President Yudhoyono will visit China.

Evidently, Indonesia is entering a new stage in its relations with China, after the visit of then president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid several weeks after his election in October 1999. The "strategic partnership" signed in April 2005 shows how the two countries are trying not only to maintain diplomatic relations, but also are forging warm and friendly relations. They may have come to a new awareness that they are bound by a symbiotic tie.

More than before, Indonesia is becoming convinced of the importance and centrality of China's position. In the past 10 years, Indonesia has witnessed how China has established itself as a new economic giant that none can ignore. With its enormous economic power, China, now, could become a strong partner of Indonesia in economic and political terms. Indonesia cannot afford to adopt the attitude of distrust as displayed by Japan or the United States.

On the other hand, China cannot ignore Indonesia either, despite Indonesia's weaknesses. Indonesia still occupies a central role in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In addition, Indonesia can provide raw materials, which China desperately needs, such as oil, LNG, timber, palm oil, etc. With an annual economic growth rate of 8 percent to 9 percent, there is no question that China needs a huge amount of natural resources, many of which Indonesia possesses.

The warming relations between Indonesia and China can, no doubt, have an affect on inter-ethnic relations within Indonesia. Though there is no direct causal link, the good relations between Indonesia and China will predictably bring a positive impact. In recent years and decades, the presence of the Chinese-Indonesian community was connected with a "threat from the North," at the ideological, economic and even cultural levels.

Some commentators have noted that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono should have visited China on his recent tour to the United States and Japan -- two highly important countries. There is no explanation why there has been the delay; hopefully, it was only because the host was unable to change the tight schedule at the time. Last week, the President announced he would postpone his planned visit to China, Brunei and Thailand, which was scheduled for this week.

It must be noted, however, that Indonesia has to be able sail between the icebergs that are the international politics in East and Southeast Asia at present. At the moment, the United States, Japan, the European Union, India, even Russia, are very eager, even in competition, to have a degree of influence in this region.

China's entry as one of ASEAN's major partners and the warming relations with Indonesia, must have to do with China's strategic plan. China, as a big player, has a natural interest in not being left behind in gaining influence in Southeast Asia. After being squeezed in East Asia, actually, it is imperative for China to find good friends in this region.

This competition for influence has become even more apparent recently. Besides China, Japan also offers a strategic partnership under the name of "Partner for New Challenges," signed when President Susilo visited Japan last month.

The United States seems as if it is trying to win the hearts of Indonesia again by lifting the arms embargo. To the satisfaction of the military faction, Indonesia accepted it gladly.

Taking into consideration this map of competition, Indonesia should be smart enough to maintain a good distance with all the "players" in the field.

Too close of relations with any one player might jeopardize relations with other players. Yet, this does not mean that Indonesia has no principles at all. At the beginning of his presidency, Gus Dur put forward the idea of creating a triangular relationship between Jakarta, Beijing and New Delhi, but that plan vanished into thin air.

From the viewpoint of "geo-economics", which is currently in vogue, the idea now looks visionary and irresistible.

The writer is the chairman of the Center for Chinese Studies, Jakarta. He can be contacted at iww@indo.net.id