Indian political crisis

The resignation of Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda after a parliamentary vote of confidence Friday night has plunged India into political uncertainty. The crisis was set in motion when the Congress (I) Party pulled the rug from under Gowda's United Front coalition government on March 30. Congress Party President Sitaram Kesri may not have intended it, but turmoil is what came about as a result of his action to end Gowda's 10-month government.

Now, not one party has the necessary majority in the Lok Sabha (Lower House) to form a government, while the emergence of a new coalition government, or reenactment of an old one, seems a bleak prospect.

A fresh election looks to be the only course, unless India's political leaders can undo the deadlock. Yet, a new election, after having one only last year, is something most political parties, and certainly most Indian citizens, could do without.

Congress has offered to form a new coalition with the United Front but insists on a new leader to replace Gowda. The Front's dozen or so small centrist and leftist parties have refused to yield and have rallied their support behind Gowda. While neither wanted to go to the country, reviving the coalition is unlikely given the animosity that has developed between the two. Most analysts say the Bharatiya Janata Party is the likely beneficiary of a fresh election but they dismiss the likelihood of the Hindu- nationalist emerging an outright winner to form a government.

Even if an election is held, the outcome will not likely be very different from the current political equation in New Delhi. The next government after an election will either be a new coalition, or a minority government, both of which would be equally weak to be able to govern effectively.

Whatever motivated the Congress Party to withdraw its support for the United Front, it has put India in a catch-22 situation, a situation that appears very few, if anyone at all, would benefit from. There have been all kinds of speculations about the reasons for 77-year-old Kesri's move, including dislike of 64-year-old Gowda and personal ambition. The official reason, that Gowda rarely consulted with the Congress Party, seems puny, especially if one looks at the consequence of the action.

Whether this is a political miscalculation, the turn of events in New Delhi has given a bad name to democracy in general and to Indian democracy in particular. For a handful of Indian politicians, democracy has become a mere game. In a large democracy such as India, this is a dangerous game.

Indians have been proud of their long tradition in parliamentary democracy and they have every right to be so because theirs is often cited as an ideal model for developing countries. If some countries in Asia began by developing their economies first before building their democracy, India is showing that there could be an alternative path.

To the credit of politicians in New Delhi, they have spared the government budget from the current turmoil and scheduled a debate later this month with the intention of endorsing it. But this attempt to give the impression of business as usual is unlikely to go down well among ordinary Indians and the business community, if India is to have another election this year. Last year's election was marred with violence, with more than 70 people killed. Dragging ordinary Indians to the polling booths after doing it last year is a disservice to democracy if all it mean is even more uncertainty.