India-Pakistan dialog

The recent dialog in Islamabad among the heads of government of seven South Asian states resulted in a development that could have a major strategic impact on Asia. As a result of talks between leaders and senior officials of nuclear powers India and Pakistan, it was announced that a wide-ranging dialog would be held between the two states next month, "to carry the process of normalization forward".

India's foreign minister Yashwant Sinha, reading from a joint statement, said the leaders of Pakistan and India had agreed to "commence the process of a composite dialog".

Apparently, this announcement was the result of secret diplomatic talks between Islamabad and New Delhi over the last eight months. It is ironic, however, that a second assassination attempt against Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the president of Pakistan, on Dec. 25 apparently prompted the Pakistani leader to speed up his decision on this bold step.

The coming dialog, which will include discussion of Kashmir, will be held after the two sides agree upon a number of confidence-building measures. These include a cease-fire along the demarcation line in Kashmir, resumed high-level diplomatic ties and the restoration of transportation links between the two countries.

President Musharraf finally reached this strategic decision -- namely developing a full cooperative relationship with India -- after concluding that taking a firm stance against radical groups operating in Pakistan could no longer be delayed. His first strategic decision, of course, was taken after Sept. 11, 2001, when he declared his support for the United States and withdrew his backing of the al-Qaeda-connected Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

The willingness of India's Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, for his part, to discuss Kashmir demonstrates his pragmatic stance on the issue. Unlike India's first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, he has no special emotional ties to Kashmir. Prime Minister Vajpayee has apparently come to the conclusion that it will be impossible for India to assume a significant role in either Asia or the world so long as it is burdened with problems that have been dragging on for decades, such as the Kashmir conflict.

That conflict, of course, was the result of the partitioning of the subcontinent into two sovereign states, India and Pakistan, at the time the British raj ended its rule in 1947.

The Kashmir problem is too complex to summarize in this space. Suffice to say, with the presence of a large Muslim population, in 1947 armed Pathan fighters came filtering in soon after the Kashmir Maharajah, Sir Hari Singh, signed a declaration making his territory a part of the Union of India.

It is interesting to note that when the Kashmir conflict was submitted to the United Nations in the 1950s, the person appointed as the UN secretary-general's special envoy to Kashmir was Prof. Frank Graham, the former president of the University of North Carolina.

It was the same Prof. Graham who, as a member of a UN team, brokered an agreement between the Netherlands and the Republic of Indonesia in January 1948, which is now known as the Renville agreement, after the American naval vessel aboard which the talks were held in the Bay of Batavia (Jakarta).

Although the decision by the two South Asian nuclear powers to commence a wide-ranging dialog is the result of careful preparations, one cannot help but think that further positive developments will very much depend on whether Gen. Musharraf is able to escape further assassination attempts. From this point of view, the fate of these important talks appears very fragile indeed.

Undoubtedly, we in Indonesia welcome these positive developments that have taken place in South Asia. The emergence of an India and Pakistan unencumbered by bilateral problems will make it possible for the two countries, India in particular, to play constructive and significant roles in this part of the world, which will eventually create a favorable geopolitical environment for Indonesia.

Certainly, it will not be easy to find a comprehensive solution to Kashmir. For example, we do not know if Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee is politically strong enough to risk recognizing the current de facto separation as a possible solution. It appears that, sensing a favorable political climate for his Bharatiya Janata Party, the prime minister is planning to call general elections some time this year.

We will follow the forthcoming high-level talks between India and Pakistan with great interest, hoping for positive results that will alter Asia's political map.