India, China block test ban

The environmentalist group Greenpeace announced on Monday that it will send a protest ship to China to campaign against the Asian superpower's next round of planned nuclear tests and pressure Beijing to agree on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

Beijing is widely expected to carry out two explosions at its Lop Nor test site in the northwestern region of Xinjiang sometime this month or next, and again between September and October.

In the meantime, negotiators from 38 countries are meeting in Geneva to begin a final push for the treaty and their deadline on June 30.

It looks unlikely that the delegates will be able to ratify the treaty before the date because of strong opposition from China and India.

While China's declared nuclear stand is well-known, India's refusal to support the test ban treaty is disturbing, especially now when there are looming prospects that the Hindu fundamentalist Bharatiya Janata Party might form the next government.

Like the previous Congress government, the Bharatiya Janata Party wants India to retain the nuclear option and hence it opposes the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the CTBT.

The fundamentalists, however, go one step further by openly stating that not only would India retain the nuclear option but it will also exercise it -- in other words acquire nuclear weapons and openly declare possession of them.

For the first time in more than 40 years, we have this genuine window of opportunity to achieve a full nuclear test ban. The correlation of interests of various countries that have brought this about will not last forever.

If the opportunity is lost now, we may have to wait a very long time. The overwhelming danger is that if China and India do not sign up, Pakistan will follow suit and will be joined by Israel.

Other rogue countries will also begin to look towards that option and thus aggravate the ground situation, for instance, on the Korean peninsular. The whole thing about the CTBT is following up on the momentum that was achieved with the extension of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty last year.

The world now has two choices: either it pushes vigorously for a complete test ban or accept that the CTBT will unravel and fall apart, making the world a more dangerous place to live in.

-- The Nation, Bangkok