India and Pakistan peace bid bruised but not broken

By Palash Kumar

NEW DELHI (AFP): The collapse of summit talks between the leaders of arch-rival nuclear powers India and Pakistan has left their bid for lasting peace in the region badly bruised, but not broken, analysts said.

The consensus among foreign policy experts and media pundits here was "no" to any suggestion that the summit was a complete failure.

"I don't think there is any reason for such a negative outcry," said Dilip Padgaonkar, editor of the Times of India newspaper.

"There were too many expectations. Two years ago, India and Pakistan were not even talking. Now at least a bilateral dialog has been initiated," Padgaonkar said.

"They were speaking on such sensitive issues that both sides had to be prudent and cautious which they have been in the outcome. The fact the summit has taken place is positive."

The two-day summit between Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf was the first for two years and had fuelled hopes of movement towards ending more than five decades of hostility that have included three full-scale wars.

But the summit ended acrimoniously around midnight Monday, after seven hours of negotiations to find a mutually acceptable joint declaration imploded over the thorny issue of Kashmir.

Given the stated positions -- Pakistan considering Kashmir the core issue and India seeking a broad-based dialog -- defense analyst Brahma Chellaney felt one of the reasons for the collapse of the talks at Agra was too much stress on semantics.

"Both wanted a successful summit on their own terms which just wasn't possible. We spent the entire three days in Agra quibbling over semantics and conceptual differences. Substance was not at the center of the negotiations," Chellaney said.

"Even if we had managed (to draft a declaration) where would substance have come in?" he said.

Political analyst Anirudh Sinha agreed with Chellaney in saying that the dialog broke down due to "mutual intransigence and belligerence" which swept aside initial gains.

"Both India and Pakistan will now have to establish a fundamental line of mutual trust from where any further negotiations or a process of dialogue can take off," Sinha said.

Shekkhar Gupta, editor of the Indian Express newspaper, felt there was still plenty of room for optimism.

"The process of dialog has not broken down. They have just not agreed upon a document," he said. "It can only move on like this because there are very serious problems between the two countries. We should celebrate every incremental shift by both sides."

During the summit, Vajpayee had accepted an invitation to visit Pakistan.

Padgaonkar said the breakdown of the talks had to be placed in their historical context.

"The relationship between India and Pakistan is a rollercoaster ride -- doom at dawn and love at midnight with occasional break-ups, patch-ups and breakfast," he said.

"It is an emotionally charged relationship and that is what we have seen in the outcome," Padgaonkar added.

Observers were agreed that the main gain from the summit in the shadow of the Taj Mahal was that the two leaders had met at all.

"The success of Agra is that it took place. Period," said an editorial in the Indian Express.

"That two nations that had rained ammunition on each other exactly two years ago, actually sat down and tried to arrive at a resolution to a complex hostility is not defeat. It is a beginning, and a brave one at that.

"Agra is now history. But it must not be forgotten. It must be regarded as a small but crucial step in the subcontinent's long trek to a new future."

That theme was taken up by Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh at a press briefing on Tuesday.

"This is not the end of the exercise," Singh insisted.

"The caravan of peace will continue on its march and I have no doubt, on some auspicious day, will reach its destination."