Incumbent enjoys an advantage in the presidential election

Incumbent enjoys an advantage in the presidential election

Nico Harjanto, Jakarta

All polls and surveys show that the incumbent, President
Megawati, is weak in the presidential election due on July 5.
Several surveys carried out, using rigorous methodology, indicate
a large discrepancy in the level of support between the Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono-Jusuf Kalla ticket and the others.

Intuitively, these surveys signal serious problem for the
incumbent with regard to winning the race. However, is it that
easy to defeat the incumbent? Will popularity triumph over
political machine?

The incumbent always has more leverage and advantages than
contenders. Even in advanced democracies where public scrutiny is
almost unlimited in terms of its scope, the incumbent can and
does have the constitutional right to campaign using state
facilities. Everywhere the incumbent goes, the state provides
security, means of transportation and other relevant facilities.
This already reduces some of the costs of reaching the
electorate.

Politically, the incumbent usually has effective control over
the rank-and-file of the government apparatus and enjoys a wide
sphere of influence over various groups, which can be used to
support her or his political machine. But the incumbent is also
liable to criticism and blame for the failure of government in
improving people's welfare and democracy in general. The
incumbent usually becomes the center of public cynicism over
various issues and problems.

In the upcoming presidential election, candidates should not
be overoptimistic about their chances of winning. Popularity is
meaningless without a strong political machine, while such a
machine is counterproductive if a candidate's image has
deteriorated.

What will be more influential in shaping voter preference is
still questionable until comprehensive studies on the behavior of
Indonesian voters have been carried out. However, it is likely
that political machine will prove to be more effective in
determining victory in the next presidential election.

In the direct presidential election, psychological effects or
incentive structure theory in the legislative elections.
Psychological effects work when voters tend not to waste their
votes by voting for strong candidates or parties. But parties are
usually encouraged by a strong incentive to win the support of
ideologically centrist voters of an electorate, for it is these
moderate voters who determine the outcome of the race.

In the presidential race, continuous cognitive mobilization
could influence voter preference. Informed voters would be likely
to vote for weak candidates in polling, and partisanship could
easily be irrelevant for supporters of candidates backed by
several parties. This creates opportunities for campaigners to
attract voters either indirectly using the mass media or directly
through the political machines working at the grass roots.

However, Indonesian society still lacks access to mass media
or other means of telecommunications. The latest World
Development Indicators Database shows that daily newspaper
subscriptions are 22.8 per 1000 people in Indonesia, while the
average for developing countries is 49.1. The ratio of radio and
television sets per 1000 population is also lower than the
average for developing countries.

This, if not taken into account wisely, could mislead
candidates' strategists about winning the presidential election.
Popularity could be meaningless if it did not reach the majority
of the population living without access to the means of
information. Popularity could be an "upper-layer" phenomenon, not
representatively reflecting the preference of the population, and
therefore cognitive mobilization strategy to inform voters might
yield minimal results.

In this context incumbency is beneficial, as all levels of
government indirectly "campaign" for the incumbent, from the
symbolic act of hanging a picture of the incumbent in all offices
to daily governmental activities. The only problem for the
incumbent is to transform public knowledge into votes in polling
booths, while other candidates must inform and convince
electorates about themselves and their programs.

The chances of the incumbent winning a place in the second
round are therefore still high. If popularity works, then the
second ticket to enter the runoff will be Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono-Jusuf Kalla.

However, if political machine is more instrumental, then
Wiranto-Solahuddin Wahid will progress to the runoff with
Megawati Soekarnoputri-Hasyim Muzadi. The chances of Amien Rais-
Siswono Yudhohusodo being the runners-up in the first round are a
little more remote, as these depend on many things, such as how
to minimize support for Hamzah Haz-Agum Gumelar, and how to
attract undecided urban and Muslim voters who voted for the
Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) in the last legislative election.

However, as politics is not linear, a surprising, anomalous
result could still occur.

The writer (oenic@msn.com) is a researcher at the Department
of Politics and Social Change, Centre for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta.