Incumbent enjoys an advantage in the presidential election

Nico Harjanto, Jakarta

All polls and surveys show that the incumbent, President Megawati, is weak in the presidential election due on July 5. Several surveys carried out, using rigorous methodology, indicate a large discrepancy in the level of support between the Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono-Jusuf Kalla ticket and the others.

Intuitively, these surveys signal serious problem for the incumbent with regard to winning the race. However, is it that easy to defeat the incumbent? Will popularity triumph over political machine?

The incumbent always has more leverage and advantages than contenders. Even in advanced democracies where public scrutiny is almost unlimited in terms of its scope, the incumbent can and does have the constitutional right to campaign using state facilities. Everywhere the incumbent goes, the state provides security, means of transportation and other relevant facilities. This already reduces some of the costs of reaching the electorate.

Politically, the incumbent usually has effective control over the rank-and-file of the government apparatus and enjoys a wide sphere of influence over various groups, which can be used to support her or his political machine. But the incumbent is also liable to criticism and blame for the failure of government in improving people's welfare and democracy in general. The incumbent usually becomes the center of public cynicism over various issues and problems.

In the upcoming presidential election, candidates should not be overoptimistic about their chances of winning. Popularity is meaningless without a strong political machine, while such a machine is counterproductive if a candidate's image has deteriorated.

What will be more influential in shaping voter preference is still questionable until comprehensive studies on the behavior of Indonesian voters have been carried out. However, it is likely that political machine will prove to be more effective in determining victory in the next presidential election.

In the direct presidential election, psychological effects or incentive structure theory in the legislative elections. Psychological effects work when voters tend not to waste their votes by voting for strong candidates or parties. But parties are usually encouraged by a strong incentive to win the support of ideologically centrist voters of an electorate, for it is these moderate voters who determine the outcome of the race.

In the presidential race, continuous cognitive mobilization could influence voter preference. Informed voters would be likely to vote for weak candidates in polling, and partisanship could easily be irrelevant for supporters of candidates backed by several parties. This creates opportunities for campaigners to attract voters either indirectly using the mass media or directly through the political machines working at the grass roots.

However, Indonesian society still lacks access to mass media or other means of telecommunications. The latest World Development Indicators Database shows that daily newspaper subscriptions are 22.8 per 1000 people in Indonesia, while the average for developing countries is 49.1. The ratio of radio and television sets per 1000 population is also lower than the average for developing countries.

This, if not taken into account wisely, could mislead candidates' strategists about winning the presidential election. Popularity could be meaningless if it did not reach the majority of the population living without access to the means of information. Popularity could be an "upper-layer" phenomenon, not representatively reflecting the preference of the population, and therefore cognitive mobilization strategy to inform voters might yield minimal results.

In this context incumbency is beneficial, as all levels of government indirectly "campaign" for the incumbent, from the symbolic act of hanging a picture of the incumbent in all offices to daily governmental activities. The only problem for the incumbent is to transform public knowledge into votes in polling booths, while other candidates must inform and convince electorates about themselves and their programs.

The chances of the incumbent winning a place in the second round are therefore still high. If popularity works, then the second ticket to enter the runoff will be Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono-Jusuf Kalla.

However, if political machine is more instrumental, then Wiranto-Solahuddin Wahid will progress to the runoff with Megawati Soekarnoputri-Hasyim Muzadi. The chances of Amien Rais- Siswono Yudhohusodo being the runners-up in the first round are a little more remote, as these depend on many things, such as how to minimize support for Hamzah Haz-Agum Gumelar, and how to attract undecided urban and Muslim voters who voted for the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) in the last legislative election.

However, as politics is not linear, a surprising, anomalous result could still occur.

The writer (oenic@msn.com) is a researcher at the Department of Politics and Social Change, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta.