In Taiwan, many ways to say no to China

By Alice Hung

TAIPEI (Reuters): Taiwan's presidential election next month will remove a thorn in China's side -- the outspoken, and sometimes unpredictable, President Lee Teng-hui.

But the end of Lee's term at the top won't necessarily herald a warmer era in relations between Taipei and Beijing, which threatens to use force to reunite the island with the motherland.

The three clear frontrunners in the March 18 poll share the view that Taiwan is independent and sovereign and would never unite willingly with a totalitarian, one-party Communist state.

It was blunt-speaking Lee who last year outraged Beijing by re-labeling already tense ties with the mainland as a "special state-to-state relationship".

Analysts said the legacy of Lee's assertion that Taiwan's exiled Republic of China is the political equal of the People's Republic of China would remain after he retires in May.

"In a way, the three leading presidential candidates are handcuffed by President Lee's special state-to-state theory," said Chang Ling-chen, political scientist at Taiwan University.

"Any attempt to soften it would be attacked as weak; any attempt to toughen it will be viewed as dangerous."

Lee's assertion infuriated Beijing, which ousted the Nationalist republic to end a civil war in 1949 and still threatens to use force to bring Taiwan under its sovereignty.

But the call for parallel sovereignty enjoys strong backing in Taiwan -- ensuring that any populist would-be president must toe Lee's "special state-to-state" line in his own way.

Three candidates are consistently garnering 20 to 25 percent support in opinion polls: Maverick ex-Nationalist James Soong, Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party, and the ruling Nationalist Party's Lien Chan.

"The candidates may have different ideas about how the future should be. But no one wants to change the present situation, which coincides nicely with the mainstream view," said political analyst Ger Yeong-kuang.

Soong, who leads most polls, defines cross-strait ties as "quasi-international under relative sovereignty".

The former Taiwan provincial governor, expelled from the Nationalist Party for spurning its ticket to launch his independent bid, has proposed signing a 30-year peace treaty witnessed by the international community.

After 30 years, the sides could form a union modeled on the European Union for a further 20 years before deciding whether to form a unified country.

Chen, of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party and ranking second in most polls, says Taipei and Beijing have "special ties between two states", a phrase with a distinct echo of Lee's.

Mindful of China's threats and Taiwan's cautious mainstream, Chen is quick to assure his party would not declare independence outright if called to power.

Incumbent Vice President Lien -- Lee's carefully groomed successor -- is seen as keeping his mentor's policy intact, but with a softer tone to avoid fanning tensions.

Lien, persistently trailing Soong and Chen, said he would not reaffirm Lee's "special state to state" policy and called for a "peace zone" to be established in the Taiwan Strait.

Analysts said Beijing is unlikely to gain any mileage from the election in its quest for political union.

Beijing's offer of union under the "one country, two systems" formula accepted by Hong Kong and Macau has not gone completely unnoticed. But the one candidate espousing one country, two systems, Li Ao of the small pro-union New Party, polls less than 1 percent of popular support.

Analysts do not expect Beijing to make any direct attempt to influence the vote, recalling how its campaign of war games and missile tests in the runup to Taiwan's 1996 presidential election only widened Lee's landslide.

"Beijing has learnt its lesson in 1996," said Julian Kuo, an adviser to Democratic Progressive Chen.

"It came as a surprise to Beijing that the sabre-rattling actually helped Lee Teng-hui gain points. I don't think they will do the same thing again."

In 1996, Beijing assailed Lee as a "splittist" who should be "swept into the dustbin of history" for opposing union.

This time around, Beijing's warnings have been gentler.

"No matter who becomes Taiwan's leader, it should benefit the development of relations between the two sides and China's peaceful reunification," Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao has said. "It must not lead to a split or Taiwan independence."