Impending ice age in U.S.-European ties

By Stefan Kornelius

WASHINGTON (DPA): George W. Bush has not been inaugurated as U.S. President as yet but the Europeans are already getting weak knees over the general political climate emanating from Austin, Texas. In Austin itself, the incoming President met with some politicians in the Four Seasons hotel and indicated that, with regard to transatlantic security policy, mainly one season can be expected: an icy, frosty winter.

One day later, NATO ambassadors in Brussels agreed among themselves that there initially is nothing to agree on in the depleted uranium weapons issue. And, on Thursday, U.S. Defense Secretary-designate Donald Rumsfeld will appear before a Senate hearing where he will give information, not least of all, about nuclear missile defense (NMD) and the report on the need for them and their urgent deployment which bears his name.

Bush is pursuing two objectives of defense- and security policy. He wants to strengthen the military and to protect the Unites States against missile attack. Both aims are making the Europeans uncomfortable because an even stronger U.S. military will widen the gap between the NATO partners. Therefore, pressure on the Europeans to do more for their own defense is growing. A decision in favor of NMD could unleash a chain reaction which could result in a heavily-warped global military structure.

Bush will be under pressure of time on the missile defense issue if he wants to meet the timetable sketched out by the military and Rumsfeld for development and deployment. He would have to make a decision within six weeks' time, a period that leaves little or no time for consultation.

The allies would have no choice but to interpret the quick decision in favor of NMD as an inconsiderate, overwhelming act. China or Russia is very likely to speak of aggression.

Therefore, nervousness on the European side of the Atlantic is growing and it is getting impetus from the politically highly explosive topic of depleted uranium munitions. Discussions on the danger of such weapons took place in the United States as early as after the Gulf War. The excitement in Europe is therefore not communicable to the United States and both the old and new administrations in Washington are reacting with corresponding disinterest.

The lack of interest (and the inability to make decisions in the transition period) is reflected in the behavior of the NATO Council in which the United States and Britain are rejecting a moratorium for the use of DU shells although this political gesture would have taken the pressure from the debate and provided time for an objective analysis.

Because prejudices tend to boil up especially quickly nowadays and in particular the United States with its Republican president is under general suspicion of being stubborn and narcisstic, the only solution is less emotion and more discussion.

Moderation is called for on the part of the Europeans and George W. Bush would be well advised to show his hand as early as possible and seek a few friends, most preferably among the allies.