Immediate action needed to avert starvation

JAKARTA (JP): Besides being blamed for the smog, the prolonged drought will also impact agricultural production. We asked Dr. H.S. Dillon, executive director of the recently founded Center for Agriculture Policy Studies, to comment on the current situation.

JP: The drought shows no sign of ending. How bad is the situation in agricultural terms?

Answer: Well, I fear that the situation might be deteriorating very rapidly. The widespread publicity over the smog due to its spillover across international borders and its effect upon the urban populace has distracted us from an even more serious development.

In this case, those facing the greatest threat of starvation are the most isolated rural communities, who have practically no voice. The IDT disbursements over the last three years reveal that 70 percent of the monies were used to finance agricultural projects.

Production statistics tracking the effect of El Nio over the last two decades indicate that harvested rice areas could fall by at least 4 percent, while that of coffee might decline by about 25 percent. We are being told that 450,000 hectares of rice have already been affected. Given the small average size of our rice holdings, you can imagine how many households stand to suffer a major loss in income.

Q: Why do you sound so concerned? The government must certainly be aware of this threat.

A: If I sound concerned, it's because I fear that officials are going to remain in denial until the press reports mass starvation. Then it'll be too late, thousands might have died already. You see, this drought is compounded by the most severe economic downturn we have seen since the New Order came into power.

During droughts, the rural population migrates to cities in search of work -- any type of work, which will help tide them over. During economic downturns -- normally caused by business cycles -- agriculture has invariably served as the employer of the last resort.

What we are witnessing now is a double bind -- and poor households, particularly those in isolated communities, are going to find it very difficult to cope without external assistance.

Our statistics show that with the poverty line at a monthly per capita income of Rp 27,413, 15.3 million were classified as poor. However, there were another 21 million with incomes less than Rp 35,000. Thus, there are at least 36 million at risk.

One would have thought mass starvation was a thing of the past. It certainly should not occur in these modern days and times.

Sadly enough, Waimena flies in the face of logic and common sense. The Waimena starvations serve to illustrate the weaknesses in both our surveillance mechanism and the speed of our response. However, nobody has come forward to assume responsibility.

At present, most regional officials do not want to admit that anything bad is happening in their areas for fear that they will be blamed, and might not be reelected. According to reports, officials in East Kalimantan are maintaining that deaths from starvation have not been caused by a food shortage, but because households cannot afford to buy food. A large number of senior officials normally lack a sense of direction, and are already looking beyond March 1998.

They are mainly preoccupied with their own survival and rarely possess the moral courage to speak out. Thus, situations which could have been easily nipped in the bud have been allowed to deteriorate into major tragedies.

Q: What should be done now?

A: Well, first of all, we should set up an effective surveillance system to pinpoint the food shortage. This cannot be done using the normal Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Health information systems because that would arrive too late, and furthermore, they would try to cover up what would be perceived as their failures.

Once again, it is President Soeharto, himself, who has called upon us to be alert, as this drought might be followed by heavy flooding. Therefore, part of the monies we are receiving from the International Monetary Fund should be set aside to help the food- deficient households.

For the sake of speed and accountability, it might be best if the President's secretary for development coordinates with BULOG and ABRI in conducting a biweekly surveillance of the food shortage. These agencies should work with local administrations and report back to the President every other week.

Simple yardsticks, such as the number of households which have run out of home rice stock or those which have sold basic belongings, might be useful to get a handle on the number of the poor. Getting relief out quickly, without it being lost or distorting markets, is of the greatest importance.

Priority should be given to the elderly, women and children, for they are the most vulnerable during problem periods such as this.

Q: What would the consequences of inaction be?

A: Food prices would escalate sharply toward New Year's and the advent of Ramadhan; they've already begun to rise. As their meager stocks and savings run out, the poor would have to cut down on consumption. Disease would ravage the weak and those with low resistance.

What more if heavy flooding were indeed to follow in the wake of this drought? I'm afraid that this would further destabilize the economy and could be unfairly associated with the economic reform package. This could lead to widespread political unrest, something we should all work on to avoid.