Immediate action needed to avert starvation
Immediate action needed to avert starvation
JAKARTA (JP): Besides being blamed for the smog, the prolonged
drought will also impact agricultural production. We asked Dr.
H.S. Dillon, executive director of the recently founded Center
for Agriculture Policy Studies, to comment on the current
situation.
JP: The drought shows no sign of ending. How bad is the
situation in agricultural terms?
Answer: Well, I fear that the situation might be deteriorating
very rapidly. The widespread publicity over the smog due to its
spillover across international borders and its effect upon the
urban populace has distracted us from an even more serious
development.
In this case, those facing the greatest threat of starvation
are the most isolated rural communities, who have practically no
voice. The IDT disbursements over the last three years reveal
that 70 percent of the monies were used to finance agricultural
projects.
Production statistics tracking the effect of El Nio over the
last two decades indicate that harvested rice areas could fall by
at least 4 percent, while that of coffee might decline by about
25 percent. We are being told that 450,000 hectares of rice have
already been affected. Given the small average size of our rice
holdings, you can imagine how many households stand to suffer a
major loss in income.
Q: Why do you sound so concerned? The government must certainly
be aware of this threat.
A: If I sound concerned, it's because I fear that officials are
going to remain in denial until the press reports mass
starvation. Then it'll be too late, thousands might have died
already. You see, this drought is compounded by the most severe
economic downturn we have seen since the New Order came into
power.
During droughts, the rural population migrates to cities in
search of work -- any type of work, which will help tide them
over. During economic downturns -- normally caused by business
cycles -- agriculture has invariably served as the employer of
the last resort.
What we are witnessing now is a double bind -- and poor
households, particularly those in isolated communities, are going
to find it very difficult to cope without external assistance.
Our statistics show that with the poverty line at a monthly
per capita income of Rp 27,413, 15.3 million were classified as
poor. However, there were another 21 million with incomes less
than Rp 35,000. Thus, there are at least 36 million at risk.
One would have thought mass starvation was a thing of the
past. It certainly should not occur in these modern days and
times.
Sadly enough, Waimena flies in the face of logic and common
sense. The Waimena starvations serve to illustrate the weaknesses
in both our surveillance mechanism and the speed of our response.
However, nobody has come forward to assume responsibility.
At present, most regional officials do not want to admit that
anything bad is happening in their areas for fear that they will
be blamed, and might not be reelected. According to reports,
officials in East Kalimantan are maintaining that deaths from
starvation have not been caused by a food shortage, but because
households cannot afford to buy food. A large number of senior
officials normally lack a sense of direction, and are already
looking beyond March 1998.
They are mainly preoccupied with their own survival and rarely
possess the moral courage to speak out. Thus, situations which
could have been easily nipped in the bud have been allowed to
deteriorate into major tragedies.
Q: What should be done now?
A: Well, first of all, we should set up an effective surveillance
system to pinpoint the food shortage. This cannot be done using
the normal Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Health
information systems because that would arrive too late, and
furthermore, they would try to cover up what would be perceived
as their failures.
Once again, it is President Soeharto, himself, who has called
upon us to be alert, as this drought might be followed by heavy
flooding. Therefore, part of the monies we are receiving from the
International Monetary Fund should be set aside to help the food-
deficient households.
For the sake of speed and accountability, it might be best if
the President's secretary for development coordinates with BULOG
and ABRI in conducting a biweekly surveillance of the food
shortage. These agencies should work with local administrations
and report back to the President every other week.
Simple yardsticks, such as the number of households which have
run out of home rice stock or those which have sold basic
belongings, might be useful to get a handle on the number of the
poor. Getting relief out quickly, without it being lost or
distorting markets, is of the greatest importance.
Priority should be given to the elderly, women and children,
for they are the most vulnerable during problem periods such as
this.
Q: What would the consequences of inaction be?
A: Food prices would escalate sharply toward New Year's and the
advent of Ramadhan; they've already begun to rise. As their
meager stocks and savings run out, the poor would have to cut
down on consumption. Disease would ravage the weak and those with
low resistance.
What more if heavy flooding were indeed to follow in the wake
of this drought? I'm afraid that this would further destabilize
the economy and could be unfairly associated with the economic
reform package. This could lead to widespread political unrest,
something we should all work on to avoid.