Ignorance of alternatives

Ignorance of alternatives

Winarno Zain's article Megawati presidency not foregone
conclusion invites answers to three questions: why Golkar got so
many votes, why National Mandate Party (PAN) got so few votes and
why Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) got
so many votes in strongholds of Islamic parties.

When Golkar won 70 percent support in 1997, the main factors
were lack of alternatives, ballot-rigging, intimidation, bribery,
pressures from employers, media manipulation, loyalty to local
and national leaders, satisfaction with the government's
performance, habit, familiarity, conformity and fear of change.
In 1999, lack of alternatives was replaced by ignorance of the
alternatives, while all the other factors remained influential.

Ballot-rigging lessened in areas where Golkar officials were
under pressure, like Java. But in areas where Golkar expected to
win, like Sulawesi, it remained extensive, so extensive that the
North Sulawesi Elections Committee requested a rerun of the whole
poll.

Intimidation should be understood not only in terms of Aceh
and East Timor, but in terms of a climate of fear. In cities
freedom of expression, freedom of the press and freedom of
assembly determine the political climate and there has been a big
improvement over the past year. But in villages the political
climate comes from enmeshment of extortion, bureaucracy,
corruption and Golkar and this has changed little. Most voters
have been drilled from youth that they are taking a risk by not
supporting Golkar and this idea cannot be dispelled by a few TV
adverts.

In this context, the much criticized "show of strength"
approach of rallies had an important function. It persuaded
people that it is acceptable not to vote for Golkar. National
Awakening Party (PKB) supporters rode in convoy around the back
roads of East Java, but no sane person rides in convoy around the
back roads of Central Sulawesi. Intellectuals may not like street
rallies but they build a sense of common struggle and purpose
that other kinds of campaigning cannot and shared purpose can win
over the votes of whole communities.

PAN appealed to students, the middle class and other
individualists but outside Muhammadiyah areas it had no key to
unlock the votes of whole villages or districts.

JOHN HARGREAVES

Jakarta