Ignorance of alternatives

Winarno Zain's article Megawati presidency not foregone conclusion invites answers to three questions: why Golkar got so many votes, why National Mandate Party (PAN) got so few votes and why Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) got so many votes in strongholds of Islamic parties.

When Golkar won 70 percent support in 1997, the main factors were lack of alternatives, ballot-rigging, intimidation, bribery, pressures from employers, media manipulation, loyalty to local and national leaders, satisfaction with the government's performance, habit, familiarity, conformity and fear of change. In 1999, lack of alternatives was replaced by ignorance of the alternatives, while all the other factors remained influential.

Ballot-rigging lessened in areas where Golkar officials were under pressure, like Java. But in areas where Golkar expected to win, like Sulawesi, it remained extensive, so extensive that the North Sulawesi Elections Committee requested a rerun of the whole poll.

Intimidation should be understood not only in terms of Aceh and East Timor, but in terms of a climate of fear. In cities freedom of expression, freedom of the press and freedom of assembly determine the political climate and there has been a big improvement over the past year. But in villages the political climate comes from enmeshment of extortion, bureaucracy, corruption and Golkar and this has changed little. Most voters have been drilled from youth that they are taking a risk by not supporting Golkar and this idea cannot be dispelled by a few TV adverts.

In this context, the much criticized "show of strength" approach of rallies had an important function. It persuaded people that it is acceptable not to vote for Golkar. National Awakening Party (PKB) supporters rode in convoy around the back roads of East Java, but no sane person rides in convoy around the back roads of Central Sulawesi. Intellectuals may not like street rallies but they build a sense of common struggle and purpose that other kinds of campaigning cannot and shared purpose can win over the votes of whole communities.

PAN appealed to students, the middle class and other individualists but outside Muhammadiyah areas it had no key to unlock the votes of whole villages or districts.

JOHN HARGREAVES

Jakarta