ICG spells out trouble for RI

ICG spells out trouble for RI

JAKARTA (JP): President Abdurrahman Wahid is not likely to
escape unscathed from current attempts by his opposition to
unseat him, but whatever transpires from this power struggle,
violence looms large over Indonesia, the International Crisis
Group says.

"Gus Dur (Abdurrahman)'s survival with his presidential powers
intact is unlikely," the Brussels-based research group said in
its latest report on Indonesia entitled "Indonesia's Presidential
Crisis".

"Even if this were to happen, he could probably not restore
his moral and political authority. Based on past experience,
there is little reason to expect that a new Gus Dur government
would be more cohesive and effective than the old one," the ICG
said.

The group, chaired by former Australian foreign minister
Gareth Evans who is in town this week, postulated four scenarios
arising from the battle between the President and his foes in the
House of Representatives. All four have the potential for setting
off violent clashes between his supporters and those who oppose
him, it said.

The first is for his impeachment by the People's Consultative
Assembly, where his position is no longer tenable, and for Vice
President Megawati Soekarnoputri to take over.

This scenario alone raises the possibility of clashes between
supporters of the two leaders.

The report said that were Gus Dur to resign before the
impeachment, he could help ensure a smooth transition and reduce
the likelihood of an ugly conflict. "However, Gus Dur is famous
for his stubbornness, and those who know him well believe that he
is unlikely to follow this course."

A second scenario is one where the President transferred
executive tasks to the Vice President, or by citing his ailing
health, declared himself non-active and handed over full
presidential power to his deputy. "It is very unlikely that Gus
Dur would accept either alternative at present but he may find
one or the other more attractive if his position becomes more
desperate during the coming months," the report said.

A third scenario is for the President to win over Megawati's
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) in
return for the majority of seats in his Cabinet. Since the
coalition of his own Nation Awakening Party (PKB) with PDI
Perjuangan still does not guarantee him enough support in
parliament, he will have to solicit support from one or two other
parties. "However, it is most unlikely that Megawati and her
party would accept an arrangement that left Gus Dur in full
control of the government."

The fourth scenario could emerge if the street conflicts
between supporters of pro and anti-Gus Dur demonstrations that
have erupted in East Java spread to other parts of the country.

"If the situation deteriorated badly, a fourth scenario could
be envisaged in which the constitutional steps might be abandoned
and an unconstitutional "Philippine" (Estrada-Arroyo) solution
could be repeated in Jakarta."

This is the fourth ICG report on Indonesia this month. The
earlier reports looked at the efforts to reform the National
Police, Indonesia's failure to punish those responsible for gross
human rights violations, and an opinion article by Gareth Evans
warning Jakarta that it stood to lose a lot of international
support and goodwill unless it pulled its act together.

In December, ICG published a report which looked at the
violent sectarian conflict in Maluku. All five full reports are
available at ICG's website at www.crisisweb.org.