Hunger brings political apathy to nation

By Asip A. Hasani

YOGYAKARTA (JP): At the height of student protests in May, Gadjah Mada University rector Ichlasul Amal distinguished himself as a strong supporter of the proreform movement.

Nearly six weeks after the protests helped bring down president Soeharto, Amal reflected on developments which have transpired on the political scene, particularly prospects for coming elections.

Question: Has Habibie's administration so far been considered successful in fulfilling the popular demand for reform and democratization?

Answer: Indeed, we may say that Habibie's becoming president was inevitable as there was then no other choice.

What is more important now is that his legitimacy depends on his acceptability to the people. In fact, the people do not really care who is their leader. What counts more to them is whether in the short term they can be saved from the threat of starvation, which is now looming as a result of the crisis of basic commodities, or whether they can have a better life. If Habibie can make this come true, then he will have stronger legitimacy. Whether or not his legitimacy is constitutional will then no longer be a problem.

Q: What do you think about what Habibie's administration has done so far?

A: I'm actually disappointed with what his ministers in economic and industrial areas have done.

Take Pak Ginandjar, for example. He said the government could not do anything unless there was political stability. This goes back to what he must do as a coordinating minister of economic and industrial affairs. At least he must think about what he must do.

Q: But hasn't Habibie shown his commitment to the demand for reform by allowing political transparency, a phenomenon welcomed with the establishment of many new parties?

A: What we must bear in mind is that parties should not be established on the basis of emotion or because of an urge to find an opportunity to benefit from political openness, for example in order that one may join the Cabinet or get a certain position.

Unless great care is exercised, this openness, which is an opportunity to establish a civil society, will simply be a mirage. So, let's welcome cool-headedly this openness and the good intention showed by the Armed Forces to review their social and political role. Let's not get emotional and let's continue to devote our attention to "people's stomachs".

Q: Do you think these parties enjoy popular support?

A: The trouble is that those wishing to establish these parties are the elites, not the grass roots. It's a little strange here.

The elites are emotional while the people are most concerned with whether they can eat tomorrow or can immediately have jobs again.

Therefore, I'm afraid that these many parties will not be effective in the general election. A fairly good general election will require the participation of 25 percent of the total population. I'm afraid in the next election this 25 percent cannot be reached because many people may have turned apathetic and devoted most of their attention to food problems. Once again, all parties must prioritize people's economic problems while, of course, political consolidation toward the establishment of a civil society will continue to be implemented.

Q: How many parties should Indonesia ideally have in its multiparty system?

A: In my opinion, the number does not quite matter. This is basically only the beginning, sort of a test case.

However, this party system must be followed with quotas. It means that if a party joins the general election but fails to collect, for example, 5 percent of the total votes, this party must stop being one. So, there is a sort of requirement, but this will be seen only after the election process starts. This will naturally limit the number of parties. In 1955, no quotas were introduced with the result that there were too many parties.

Q: Who will determine the size of the quota and how big is it ideally for Indonesia?

A: This quota will be determined jointly. In Germany, the quota is 5 percent while in Israel 1 percent. A quota of 10 percent will be too big, I think, because a party based on the minority will find it difficult to reach the quota. In fact, it is important to accommodate the minority.

As for an ideal size of a quota, of course we must calculate this carefully. If the quota is 5 percent, for example, there will be too many parties which can easily meet this. Ten percent will be difficult for a minority party to meet. So, perhaps, the ideal figure is 7 percent.

Q: What factors do you think will determine the victory of a party in the coming general election?

A: Established social infrastructure like that which Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and Muhammadiyah have secured.

However, the problem is that those having established social infrastructure are based on religion. In fact, we do not quite like this, do we?

Q: What do you think of the prospects of the Golkar functional group in the coming election?

A: It is obvious that Golkar will have nothing. It is impossible for Golkar to achieve anything because it has been very much dependent on the figure of Pak Harto. So when it was suggested that Pak Harto should be separated from the board of patrons, Golkar showed that it was at a loss.

The picture is like this: Golkar cannot elect its own general chairman, let alone elect a president in a session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).

Golkar is very much dependent on Pak Harto. When Pak Harto is no longer the president, all infrastructure of Golkar will be finished. I believe Golkar's votes in the coming general election will drop sharply.

Q: The name of Golkar itself?

A: As there is a demand for total reform, everything smacking of the New Order, like the name of Golkar, will be scrapped. Perhaps it will later call itself the Indonesian Functional Party.

Q: What about the United Development Party (PPP)?

A: PPP may well maintain its existence. The problem is that if Amien Rais decides to establish a new party, how many PPP members will move to Amien Rais' party?

The same holds true if NU becomes a party. And the same phenomenon will occur if the others, who have so far supported PPP in terms of votes, follow suit. In this case, PPP will also greatly decline.

Q: What of prospects for Megawati Soekarnoputri?

A: She has a chance. It must be kept in mind, however, that Megawati became so popular and great because she had opponents, Soerjadi, for one.

Then the oppressed people in the lower social classes, like workers, joined Megawati's camp. But now workers can set up their own workers' party.

Q: Some people are apprehensive that a multiparty system will result in an unstable political situation, as occurred during the Old Order era, a situation which will justify the Armed Forces' taking over political control...

A: True. if the situation gets really out of hand, the military must take control.

The Armed Forces may not be able to overcome the economic problems that the nation is facing but at least the military may find justification to take control.

But there are at least two things which may reduce this worry.

First, the military must be aware that this poor situation is the result of their own prior support of Soeharto. It means that it is the noncivilian government that has brought about the present crisis. So if the civilians later fail to handle political affairs, their failure is to be attributed to the very bad situation they have inherited from the New Order government, which was noncivilian. A fair judgment is required here.

Second, it won't be that easy for the military to assume political domination over civilians because the circumstances now are different from those in 1950s. They are also different from the circumstances in 1965-1966. At that time, it was clear that the enemies were the forces of the Indonesian Communist Party, but now we are facing economic problems and these problems cannot be solved with weapons. That's why the Armed Forces will immediately hand over the administration to civilian hands again if it is beyond them to solve economic problems.