Hun Sen has ASEAN caught in a quagmire

If Hun Sen's swift swoop on his coalition partner, First Prime Minister Prince Norodom Ranariddh, is said to be a coup, how would one describe the refusal of Rangoon's generals to hand over power to the popularly elected National League for Democracy?

Hun Sen has shown, time and again, that he is a shrewd politician. By launching the coup, he has forced ASEAN's hand. If ASEAN prefers to deal with the much reviled military junta over that of the democratically elected NLD in Burma, why should he, who to all intents and purposes is an elected leader, be snubbed?

"Why can't the international community not accept Ranariddh's ouster?" Hun Sen asked yesterday. "I would like to know."

Indeed, so would we.

It is clear that Ranariddh will soon be made redundant. While the prince is desperately trying to shore up support from a jaded global community, Hun Sen can count on several disgruntled FUNCINPEC members to keep the facade of the coalition government intact. Most likely, Hun Sen will browbeat the remaining FUNCINPEC members to stay in government until the next elections in May. And this time he would be ensured of winning with a clear majority.

And what's wrong with that?

If there is anything Cambodia and Myanmar can learn from some of the authoritarian ASEAN regimes, it is how to organize elections in which the result is already known, and yet still retain some measure of international respectability.

ASEAN's 30th anniversary is not a time for celebrations. Instead, the organization could do well to solemnly re-examine its role and vision.