How the world will deal with Mideast and N. Korean crises

Bantarto Bandoro, Editor, "The Indonesian Quarterly", Centre For Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta, bandoro@csis.or.id

The world community is at present facing crises on two fronts, the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula. While the U.S. and its allies continue to seek ways to sway the UN, the nuclear standoff on the Korean Peninsula has already posed a real threat to peace and stability in the East Asia region. The crisis occupies not only the government of the U.S., South Korea and Japan, but also the governments in Southeast Asia.

Jakarta and Canberra, during recent bilateral meetings, expressed serious concern at the threat to regional and global security posed by North Korea's nuclear program. North Korea's nuclear reactor at Yongbyon is now working again and is therefore capable of producing material for nuclear weapons. The prospect of the isolated state being free to develop nuclear weapons is extremely alarming.

Much has changed in North Korea in the last 10 years. In 1993, the government of then U.S. president Bill Clinton supported engagement with the government of North Korea. Negotiations between the two sides not only staved off nuclear crisis in the region, but also led to the only ever treaty between Washington and Pyongyang -- the 1994 Agreed Framework.

The treaty served as the basic guideline for the U.S. and North Korea to move toward possible peaceful solution to the crisis. A series of meetings were then held by Washington and Pyongyang to ease tensions in the region and in their bilateral relations.

But the U.S.-led global fight against terrorism has changed the spectrum of the crisis. Negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea and bilateral consultations between Seoul and Pyongyang on reunification were stopped and the government of North Korea became more introverted after the current Bush administration took a far harder line against the country, which it labeled a member of an "axis of evil".

Fear of North Korea's nuclear program and ambitions has raised tensions in the region, causing governments in the region to become more alert. It is widely reported that North Korea has already restarted its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon and could soon be reprocessing nuclear fuel into plutonium, another way of making nuclear bombs.

As part of its nuclear program, Pyongyang test fired a surfaced-to-ship missile toward the Sea of Japan last week and tested a similar short-range missile in the same area on Feb. 25. The tests were widely seen as an attempt by the North to force Washington into direct negotiations.

The U.S. reacted by sending up to six radar-avoiding F-117A stealth warplanes to South Korea for exercises with Seoul's forces. That followed the recent deployment of 24 American B-1 and B-2 bombers to the island of Guam, an open warning to Pyongyang not to get adventurous in the event of war in Iraq.

No one is sure how long the crisis will last and how it will be resolved. But the crisis has already sent the following messages: The the threat of war is looming in the region; Pyongyang will continue using the nuclear issue as a hard-line ploy to negotiate a non-aggression pact and improved economic ties with the U.S.; and the longer the current crisis continues, the greater threat to the region's safety, especially if other countries in the region decide they need nuclear weapons to counter the North Korean threat.

Nuclear weapons are part of the nation's defense system, meaning they cannot just be eliminated from its defense policy; a diplomatic solution to the crisis is always possible, provided that the countries involved in the crisis are willing to sacrifice some of their interests.

The world community is certainly not willing to see this crisis go unresolved and possibly escalate, as armed conflict would lead to a tremendous loss of life in South and North Korea. And Americans would be certain to be among the casualties, since about 37,000 U.S. troops are based in South Korea. The cost of war would be so high that the U.S. and its allies must not choose the military option to defuse the crisis.

Japan and South Korea can play a part in preventing the current crisis from escalating. Being two of North Korea's immediate neighbors, thus making them vulnerable to any hostile moves by the North, Japan and South Korea are continuing to try and persuade the U.S. to adopt a more conciliatory approach toward Pyongyang.

Such an approach is important if East Asia is to avoid nuclear confrontation. If the U.S. negotiated with the North, it could use the talks not necessarily as a means of progressing relations, but perhaps as a vehicle to freeze North Korea's current nuclear capabilities.

The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) may have a chance to offer a policy on how best to handle the crisis, since both the U.S. and North Korea are members of the forum. The joint statement issued by Indonesia and Australia said ARF played a key role in promoting regional security and needed to address the issue of North Korea, and that the two countries were pushing for ARF to hold a special meeting to discuss the North Korean nuclear issue.

Given ARF's performance record, it is unlikely that countries, particularly major ones, will use the forum to discuss the issue. Though an emergency meeting of ARF might not be a sensible option at the moment, the current nuclear crisis should at least teach the forum that, in the future, it should include high-risk security issues such as the current crisis on its regional agenda.

It is almost certain that Pyongyang will continue to use the nuclear card as one of the few ways it can influence the outside world, thus guaranteeing that the current crisis will continue. Pyongyang's moves are an effort to repeat the '93 crisis, with the goal of forcing the U.S. to the negotiating table in order to secure aid. And the U.S. will one day find itself in a situation where it has little choice but to negotiate directly with the North Korean government.