How many more bombs?

How long is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) going to keep up its bombing campaign in Yugoslavia? How long can Yugoslavia President Slobodan Milosevic resist the attacks before he ends the ethnic cleansing campaign against Albanians in Kosovo? These are disturbing questions being asked all around the world as the NATO bombing campaign, now in its third week, appears to have become a routine daily operation with no real prospects of an expeditious end.

It may be just as well that NATO and Milosevic are in a standoff. As long as both sides are as stubborn as they are now, the only alternative to the present situation appears to be an escalation, or, God forbid, an expansion, of the war.

Russia is certainly feeling restless as a result of the bombing against one of its closest historical allies. President Boris Yeltsin may have made a pledge to fully cooperate with NATO, but he is coming under strong domestic pressure to step in and support Yugoslavia. The longer the NATO bombing goes on, the more pressure Yeltsin will be under to intervene and break his NATO promise. If that happens, then we could see an expansion of the Kosovo conflict into a European war, possibly even World War III.

While NATO is resolute in trying to force Milosevic's army to its knees, it appears to be reluctant to step up the campaign beyond air attacks. For a good reason. Committing ground troops to supplement air attacks may make military sense, but it would be politically costly for the NATO governments.

The loss of military personnel lives is a consequence no NATO government, particularly the United States, appears ready to accept. Witness the massive rescue operation to bring out the American pilot of the F-117 fighter after it was downed near Belgrade. And then there was the strong American public reaction to the capture of three American soldiers by Serbian forces.

By limiting its campaign to air attacks, NATO has kept the casualty figure at zero. Sending in NATO ground troops would raise the risk of losing personnel. The loss of one single NATO member's life in the conflict would certainly alter the nature of the war. Today, NATO governments may claim to have the strong backing of their people. But they cannot count on continued support if they start losing soldiers. As with the Vietnam War three decades ago, Americans will question the wisdom of sending troops into a foreign land to fight somebody else's war.

Given NATO's reluctance to escalate or expand the conflict, the bombing campaign is settling into a disturbing pattern. Each day, the world is entertained by top NATO officials showing the efficiency and efficacy of their air power in destroying Milosevic's army facilities. With all the high precision that these NATO bombers have, one is left to wonder why are they not targeting their bombs at Milosevic and his generals. That is a question for NATO politicians, rather than generals, to answer. You don't have to be a military strategist however to realize by now that air power alone will not force Milosevic to stop his ethnic cleansing campaign.

On the contrary, more ethnic Albanian Kosovars have sought refuge in neighboring countries since the NATO bombing campaign began. NATO claims the eviction of ethnic Albanians was planned by Serbian forces before the bombing began, while Belgrade claims ethnic Albanians fled their villages as a result of the NATO bombing.

Although the NATO alliance has not lost any lives in the Kosovo campaign, and the Serbian army forces have apparently managed to survive the barrage of bombs, the cost of the war is already high, at least in terms of its effect on innocent people.

The global media have exposed the plight of hundreds of thousands of evicted ethnic Albanians in refugee camps near the Kosovo border. We have also seen glimpses of terrified Serbs living under the constant threat of aerial bombardment.

The cost of the war cannot simply be measured in terms of the number of soldiers killed, number of planes downed, amount of bombs dropped, number of tanks destroyed, or fuel depots and military barracks bombed. The real cost of the war is the pain and suffering inflicted on the hundreds of thousands of innocent people -- the ethnic Albanians and the Serbs.

The Kosovo conflict is looking more and more like a war where there are no real winners. There are many losers, of which the most numerous are innocent people. With the current Kosovo standoff, one is left to wonder when is all this going to end?