How fast is the human population expanding?

By Lim Tri Santosa

BANDUNG (JP): Today, the debate over overpopulation continues. Media articles on world population growth vacillate from doomsday hysteria to complacent unconcern, depending on which experts are used as a source. As we boldly embark upon the first year of a new century on this planet we call Earth, perhaps it's time to pause and give thought to the fact that there are now well over six billion inhabitants sharing this globe with each of us.

While some analysts downplay the negative impact of population growth, most believe that population growth multiplies the damage created by other world problems. For example, population growth exacerbates environmental degradation and resource depletion, and puts unmanageable pressure on government institutions, national economies and virtually all other resources.

Population growth is not solely responsible for these social problems.

Environmental degradation, for example, is brought about not only by the number of people, but by how much they consume and the degree to which their consumption damages the environment. The unprecedented growth of world population in the modern era arose because births began to outnumber deaths.

In ancient times, the birth rate and the death rate fluctuated around a relatively high level, and essentially canceled each other out.

The Earth's ultimate population capacity is unknown. As new technologies are devised and as resource management techniques are improved, the population capacity of the Earth expands, making it impossible to predict the ultimate number of people the world can support. Perhaps you first notice it on a crowded train station, or while waiting for a table at a popular restaurant, or while looking around at an outdoor concert: The world is a crowded place.

Six billion crowded, as a matter of fact.

Every second, five people are born, and two folks die. That's a net gain of three people for every click of the clock, according to the Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle in Paris, the sponsor of the fascinating site (www.popexpo.net). Every second the number in the corner of the screen increases by three: 6,101,569,717 ... 6,101,569,720 ... 6,101,569,723. The effect is quietly but profoundly unsettling: the numbers represent humanity's relentless proliferation. No discussion of burgeoning birth rates or limited resources can match the power of this simple illustration.

The site's designers have made optimal use of an array of Web technologies to create a lively, interactive exhibit about the current state of the world's population. Look up your age to find out how the world's population has changed since you were born, what percentage of the population is still older than you, or even how many people who were born the same year as you are still living. A fascinating shockwave-based website that shows examples of just how crowded a place the world has become. For instance, if you're 28 years old, the world's population has increased by nearly 60 percent since you were born.

As on-site visitors progress through the exhibit, they are asked such questions as, How old are you? Are you male or female? What part of the world do you live in? The result is an individually tailored educational experience. One can learn, for example, by what factor the world population has since increased. The opportunities for learning about population growth, birth control, family size, death rates and geographical differences are legion.

For all the information that one takes away from this site, however, one does not feel blustered by an onslaught of facts and statistics, or as though harangued by an impassioned environmentalist. Visitors are propelled through the site by their own curiosity, and learning seems to be an almost incidental byproduct. The result is that a visit to this site not only teaches us about our population, it also teaches us how to teach.

What do you think our planet will look like in the future? Will the future of humanity be one of hope and prosperity, or scarcity and destruction? So what is the big deal? If there are no big problems happening right now, why worry? Some people may say so, but not Prof. Stephen Hawking, the most intelligent person in the world I think. When he was on Larry King Live, Mr. King asked, "What worries you the most?" Mr. Hawking said, "My biggest worry is the population growth, and if it continues at the current rate, we will be standing shoulder to shoulder in 2600. Something has to happen, and I don't want it to be a disaster."