How does Seoul envision N.K.'s nuke dismantlement timetable?

Lee Joo-hee The Korea Herald Asia News Network/Seoul

South Korea, which played an unprecedented role in achieving the first joint statement out of the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear standoff last week, is now bracing for the next round of negotiations targeting the actions-for-actions agreement.

The Seoul government's policy is in accordance with Washington's: That North Korea must begin its dismantlement of nuclear weapons and programs by returning to the conditions of the Nonproliferation Treaty and invite the International Atomic Energy Agency for a top-to-bottom inspection as soon as possible.

Although these principles sound clear-cut and simple, establishing a timetable for the desired actions will involve many more complications as it needs to be agreed through compromises and negotiations between each relevant party.

Scheduling the actions could also easily become side-tracked by such clauses as "a permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula at an appropriate separate forum" while the primary purpose of nuclear dismantlement must also be coupled with normalizing the North's relations with Japan and the United States.

South Korea, as one of the key negotiators and a party directly influenced by North Korea's nuclear threat, is devising what could be the most comprehensive and plausible propositions.

Under the South's provisional timetable, it is paramount that the North return to the NPT and enter the dismantlement stages.

There is a constant buzz that the clause written in the joint statement that the North will "abandon," instead of "dismantle," its nuclear weapons may cause problems later, but Seoul government officials pointedly say there is no doubt the sentence means Pyongyang will "dismantle" all nuclear weapons and existing programs.

When the North enters the dismantlement stage, the other countries -- South Korea, the United States, China, Japan and Russia -- will start providing heavy fuel oil for a steam power plant, according to forecasts by sources and analysts.

There are varying opinions about whether South Korea will or should be included in the heavy fuel oil shipments as it will be separately transmitting electricity to the North.

Coinciding with the communist state's commencement of dismantling its nuclear programs, the two Koreas will start discussing the transmittance of two million kilowatts of electricity from the South to the North, the construction of which is expected to take about three years.

The Unification Ministry here released a report that South Korea's share in providing heavy fuel oil will cost around 150 billion won and that it will additionally cost around 1.7 trillion won to construct the transmittance facilities and between 3.9 trillion to eight trillion won to send the electricity for six to 10 years.

When North Korea finishes dismantling, the parties will suspend heavy fuel shipments, while Korea will start transmitting electricity. The six parties may also start talking about the possibility of work on a light water reactor -- a strong demand by the North as a symbol of its sovereign right to use nuclear energy.

Opinions on the time appropriate to start discussing the light-water reactor varies between the six party nations, particularly South Korea and the United States.

When construction on the reactor does begin, the South Korean share is likely to cost from 700 billion won to 1 trillion won for a reactor producing two kilowatts of power.

The construction period may take up to six years to complete if the parties agree to revive the suspended construction of a reactor in Shinpo, and up to 10 years if they decide to start building one from scratch.

After the light-water reactor is completed, the transmittal of electricity from the South to the North will consequently be suspended, sources said.

Some reports suggested the South may continue using the facility by selling the electricity instead.

But any time plan devised presently will only set the baseline for future negotiations as the five other parties will come with each of their own agendas, government officials said.

"There are a lot of talks on the plans to implement the state of principles, but when you look at the negotiation process of the (six-party talks), you will not have to worry," said Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon at a policy advisory meeting yesterday.

"(The government) believes we will be able to prepare detailed action plans through the six-party talks, and we will try our utmost to implement them," he said. Discussions on establishing a peaceful regime on the peninsula are likely to follow and then gain momentum if the action plans can be agreed upon.

A high-ranking government official told The Korea Herald on condition of anonymity that while each of the five other negotiating delegation will come to the fifth round of the six- party talks in November with their agendas in mind, South Korea will put setting the schedule for the North's dismantlement process at the top of the negotiation.