Hopes rising in Myanmar's political climate

SINGAPORE: There will be speculation aplenty about what drove the Myanmar military government to reopen talks with the opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, six years after the first contact. Myanmar had been in a state of suspended animation in that time, neither in danger of splintering nor able to stitch together a functioning economy on investments from the region alone.

The rumored power manoeuvrings in the junta, between intelligence head Lt. Gen. Khin Nyunt and army chief Gen. Maung Aye, do not appear a plausible trigger, as the entire leadership is believed to be unified on this move. On Suu Kyi's side, speculation would center on whether there had been yield.

Did her party, the National League for Democracy, fudge its standing demand that it be allowed to execute its 1990 election mandate -- or no deal? Has she learnt to compromise a little, in the spirit of Nelson Mandela's magnanimity in engaging his tormentors?

One person knows about the motivations -- Tan Sri Razali Ismail, the Malaysian diplomat who is the United Nations' special envoy to Myanmar. He has met both Suu Kyi and the generals, and revealed the surprise that the Myanmar antagonists had been in talks since October.

Tan Sri Razali has been guarded in interviews, but transmitted enough of the positive vibes to encourage the belief that the outcome of the talks could come close to the expectations of ASEAN, Japan and the West. He said both parties had met in 'good faith... it's what the UN and the international community were hoping would happen'.

There is great promise that a sort of settlement, if not a conjunction of interests, can be forged. It may be too much to speak of a substantive reconciliation after 10 years of extreme hostility between the generals and the woman whose stunning election triumph they would not acknowledge.

There are considerable obstacles that cannot be divorced from the overall reconciliation package. Torture as a tool to break political opponents, and the use of forced labour of men, women and children, have to be renounced. The aspirations of the minority groups (the Shan, Karen and Karenni) have to form part of a national consensus or else Myanmar will continue to ulcerate.

There has to be more respect for border integrity in the jungled frontier with Thailand. And this is not the occasion for Western governments and pressure lobbies to preach homilies in trying to accelerate the momentum of the Yangon contacts.

The junta has seldom heeded overt, self-indulgent hectoring of the kind that the European Union and Western-based Myanmar watchdogs have engaged in. Their enthusiasm in adopting Suu Kyi's cause is not doubted; they can even take some of the credit for the conciliatory tone now emanating from Yangon.

But the ASEAN countries are best placed to navigate Myanmar's complex politics, which Western nations do not take sufficient note of. ASEAN is rightly concerned, not only that electoral and social justice prevail, but also that Myanmar remains a unified country.

Constructive engagement, its approach in dealing with Myanmar, is now close to being vindicated, where once, it seemed at risk of being exploited by the ruling junta.

Malaysia has been particularly active in bringing the generals around. Tan Sri Razali will be traveling to China next. This is a crucial part of his mission as Beijing's influence on Yangon is considerable, through its military and diplomatic links. He should also persuade Japan to impress upon Yangon that economic support will be forthcoming if the political stalemate is broken.

-- The Straits Times/Asia News Network