Hopes for Northeast Asian stability

The Asahi Shimbun, Tokyo

The Pyongyang declaration signed Tuesday by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-il during their groundbreaking summit has awakened international expectations that Koizumi's diplomatic initiative could be a catalyst for a better Northeast Asia's security environment.

Tensions in the Korean Peninsula, divided since the end of World War II by Cold War confrontation, have not eased noticeably since the East-West rivalry ended. Instead, suspicions about North Korea's missile and nuclear development programs, as demonstrated by its surprise test-firing of a Taepodong missile in 1998, have added to the tensions. The deadly clash of vessels of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) and the Republic of Korea (South Korea) in the Yellow Sea three months ago underscored the fact that the Korean Peninsula remains one of the world's most volatile areas.

This small peninsula still presents an extraordinarily hostile setting, bristling with an estimated 1.8 million troops in an acrimonious face-off. If Japan's dialog with North Korea stemming from the agreement signed by Koizumi and Kim helps clear the poisonous atmosphere of the peninsula even slightly, Japan will make points with its Asian neighbors.

The Pyongyang declaration says Japan and North Korea agree to work together to enhance peace and stability in Northeast Asia. The accord also emphasizes the need for regional discussion of security concerns, including North Korea's nuclear and missile programs, and binds the nations to establish a forum for a bilateral security dialog.

The idea of multilateral talks on regional security in Northeast Asia has been broached before by former Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi and South Korea's President Kim Dae-jung. They anticipated a six-nation forum that involves Japan, the United States, China and Russia, North Korea and South Korea.

But stalled normalization talks between Tokyo and Pyongyang and North Korea's reluctance to be part of such regional talks on security issues thwarted that idea.

North Korea is notorious for diplomatic brinkmanship -- pursuing a dangerous course right to the edge of catastrophe to extract concessions. In the past it never showed serious interest in having talks on security issues with any country other than the United States. But the latest developments may indicate a change in the country's traditional diplomatic posturing.

The Pyongyang declaration was welcomed by the U.S. and the European Union, as well as by countries in the region like South Korea, China and Russia, because the situation in the Korean Peninsula represents a global security concern. The positive response to what the Koizumi-Kim summit produced also reflects international hope that a framework for regional security will be established in Northeast Asia, which has been devoid of a solid security architecture.

North Korea has a long history of provocations, including abduction of Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 1980s and persistent introduction of suspicious vessels in and around the Sea of Japan.

That makes security dialog with the country all the more important. The Japanese government needs to ensure through the dialogue that North Korea will live up to Kim's promise at the Pyongyang summit that there will be no repetition of such incidents.

Outside the landmark agreement, however, there is no reason to be optimistic about the future direction of the bilateral security dialog or where it might lead. Even after the historic summit accord of Kim Jong-il and Kim Dae-jung in 2000, dialog between the military forces of both countries made little progress. The prospect of talks between Washington and Pyongyang is similarly murky.

North Korea's recent diplomatic moves seem to suggest the nation is finally beginning to question whether its traditional diplomatic strategy is appropriate. Another possible signal of change in the regime, including its military, is the recent meeting of North Korean and South Korean military officials -- the first in a year and half -- which led to the start of work to re-establish the rail link between the two countries.

Koizumi's initiative to start summit meetings between Japan and North Korea, which followed similar moves by the leaders of China, Russia and South Korea, is of a historic significance. Through this new dialog, Japan needs to carefully build on the momentum created by the initiative to contribute to regional stability.